After a very rough week 8 I don’t feel muck like writing a big intro. I am just going to bang out the picks as quick as possible and hope for the best. I do feel alot better going into this week than last week though.
(Home team in Caps)
Atlanta +6.5 over INDY – The only concerning thing here is that Sam Baker the Atlanta LT is out and 80% of the public is taking Atlanta. But there isn’t a doubt in my mind that Atlanta is the right pick here. (If you are looking to lose lots of money then why not tease Atlanta down to .5 and put them in a 2-teamer with every other game you like this week. I can’t see Atlanta gagging this one away. They are a low variance team and don’t tend to turn the ball over.) With Julio Jones returning to the line-up it will be interesting to see if Atlanta has figured out a way to integrate him into the offense. Becuase Atlanta was better when he was out of the line-up and ther weren’t forcing the ball to him.
Tampa +8 over NEW ORLEANS – Earlier this season I wrote that Tampa is a different team when playing in their own division because their coaches know how to game plan for the likes of Atlanta and New Orleans. I stand by it, even if this will be a tough test to play in New Orleans pissed off coming off a big loss last weekend. The Bucs have won three of the past four against the Saints and I like this to be a close game also.
HOUSTON -10.5 ove r Cleveland – I am done picking Cleveland until further notice.
Jets +2.5 over BUFFALO – This game is rocketing up after opening at -1. It could even get to 3 by game time. And I understand it. The Jets just aren’t the same team they were the past 2 years. But there was alot of Buffalo news this week and I am having trouble reconciling all of it. First Ryan Fitzpatrick signed a lucartive new deal, then Buffalo announced they will be wearing their White jersey;s in this game for the first time in over a decade, then a bombshell landed on the newswire that Fitzpatrick wears his wedding ring at all times – even during games – just like David Carr used to! Now I don’t know what to think. I think the Jets are a slightly better team and their defense can match up against Buffalo. It pains me to take them in Ralph Wilson this weekend but I have to grab the points. Make sure you watch this game just to see how amped up the crowd is. This is my favorite one o’clock on the sched for that reason alone.
Miami +4 over KANSAS CITY – Tough pick here. The line has come down over the week from as high as 5.5. Either way KC doesn’t have the talent to put up a ton of points and Miami has been playing teams tough. KC is coming off an emotional Monday night win which means a short week for them. Tony Sparano has his team playing hard and I think they are going to be a tough out every week until they final get a win.
San Fran -4 over WASHINGTON – I am going to go ahead and ignore all my own warnings about a) taking Alex Smith b) taking Alex Smith on the road and c) taking Alex Smith on the road against a good defense. Let’s see how that goes.
Seattle +11 over DALLAS – I just don’t know what to think about Dallas after that pathetic showing against the Eagles. I thought they were ready to step up and grab control of the division. This isn’t a pick for Seattle. This is a pick for the points.
Denver +7 over OAKLAND – Would have liked to have grabbed this earlier in the week at 8 or above. Either way, McFadden is out and this is huge. Now the game is in Carson Palmers hands. I repeat: The game is in Carson Palmer’s hands. I am never going to lay 7 with Palmer. The gamblers of the world really got screwed in this deal. Palmer game in for mop up duty in the KC game and let the “Carson Palmer is a terrible QB” cat out of the bag. Fortunatley the Raiders had a bye week so not everyone knows this yet. Unfortunately the Raiders are playing the Broncos this week instead of a real team and there is only so much you can trust the Broncos. Even if this is the wrong pick you have to trust me that it is not worth the heart attack to have to watch Palmer come through for you.
TENNESSEE -2.5 over Cincy – I hate Tennessee right now and I actually didn’t mind grabbing Cincy because I like how physical their defense is. But then the line came in at under 3. This is still the Bengals here, and their offense still stinks. Tennessee might have some ill will towards them because of big losses to Pittsburgh and Houston but those are really good teams. You can’t pick the Bengals getting less than 3 against a decent team on the road. You just can’t.
ARIZONA -2.5 over St. Louis – Arizona seems to be able to score at home usually, Kolb is out but the Cardinals get Wells back. This is the ugliest game of the week but I will take the home team at less than 3.
Giants +9 over NEW ENGLAND – I just don’t think New England should be favored by this many points over any team that can score points. The Giants can score, they have put up 25 or more in 5 of 7 games. Even if the competition the Giants have faced hasn’t been the best you can’t tell me the Patriots defense is any better than the teams that have faced.
SAN DIEGO +5.5 over Green Bay – San Diego is at home in need of a big game. They are facing a Green Bay defense that hasn’t been shutting down opposing offenses all that well this year. 5.5 is alot of points for a quality team to be getting at home.
Baltimore +3 over PITTSBURGH – I covered this game yesterday and my mind hasn’t changed since. This Ravens defense could be something special. If it is they shouldn’t have a problem shutting down the Steelers offense for most of the night. And if they do they have to be considered the #1 team in the AFC.
Chicago +8 over PHILLY – I don’t like this game. Jay Cutler on the road facing an attacking defense is always a bad match-up. On the other hand the Bears do have Forte who could have a big day. But more importantly I just don’t feel comfortable taking a Philly team to cover this many points when they still have shown much outside of last week.
Last Week 5-8
Season 19 – 22 – 4
