It’s not exactly a historic rivalry like a Michigan-Ohio State or Florida State-Miami, but at least we’re into conference play, and we have a matchup of ranked teams!
When Stanford Has The Ball
Junior quarterback Kevin Hogan is unbeaten in seven starts, dating back to mid-season last year. The coaching staff is likely to have greater trust in Hogan this season, and let him throw the ball more, but he’s more than capable of picking up yards with his feet when necessary. Hogan has rushed for just 32 yards through two games this year, but those games were against San Jose State and Army- in other words, teams the Cardinal were able to pass against. Wideout Ty Montgomery has emerged as Hogan’s favorite target, following the departures of tight ends Zach Ertz and Levine Toilolo to the NFL. Montgomery is averaging over 100 receiving yards per game thus far, and has over half of the team’s receiving yardage. Similarly, Tyler Gaffney has emerged and dominated the running game in the absence of Stepfan Taylor. Gaffney has 236 of the Cardinal’s 394 yards on the ground, as well as all three rushing TDs. Again, however, Stanford has not faced serious competition yet this season. Arizona State should be able to shut down one receiver and one running back fairly well- the Cardinal will have to spread the ball around more. I’d expect tight end Luke Kaumatule to be more involved in the passing game than he has been so far.
As for the Sun Devils, they struggled to stop the run against Wisconsin last week- will coach Todd Graham want to put seven or eight men in the box and trust his defensive backs not to allow deep passes? There’s a lot of experience in that front seven (tackle Will Sutton was the Pac-12 Defensive Player Of The Year in 2012), so expect them to get after Hogan as well. At the same time, Stanford has four returning starters on their offensive line, and the one guy who didn’t start last year, sophomore Andrus Peat, was one of the top recruits in the country coming out of high school. If the Cardinal line can give Hogan time to throw, and open holes for Gaffney, this could be a long day for ASU.
When Arizona State Has The Ball
Sun Devils quarterback Taylor Kelly is actually very similar to Stanford’s Kevin Hogan, in that both are very mobile but also very capable passers. Juco transfer Jaelen Strong is becoming Kelly’s number one target, with six catches for 104 yards in the Wisconsin game. They can spread the ball around, though; ASU has 11 different players with at least one catch this season, and a total of 717 receiving yards. One the ground, the Sun Devils have a three-headed monster in Marion Grice, D.J. Foster, and Deantre Lewis. Grice already has five rushing TDs this season, as well as one receiving, and the three have combined for 242 of the team’s 275 rushing yards.
On the opposite side of the line of scrimmage, Stanford has an excellent front seven- in fact, their entire defense is probably one of the best in the country. They’ll need to play like it in order to slow down ASU’s run game. Stopping a team with one or two talented backs is hard enough, but the Sun Devils have three, AND they have a mobile quarterback. The Cardinal led the nation in sacks last year, and will have to do a good job getting pressure on Kelly- and quickly, before he can escape the pocket. Defensive end Henry Anderson is expected to miss the next few games with a leg injury, which is a big loss, but his replacement, Josh Mauro, is a fifth-year senior. Cornerback Alex Carter and safety Ed Reynolds are the standouts for Stanford in the backfield; chance are one of them will be charged with defending Jaelen Strong.
Prediction:
The more research I did on these teams, the more entertaining I thought this game would be. The battle in the trenches, in particular, should be good- both teams have grit and talent on both the offensive and defensive lines. It should be a close game, but ultimately I like the Cardinal. Stanford 31, ASU 27
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