Welcome back to Premier League by the Numbers, the column that explores the stats, trends and figures of selected Premier League games on a weekly basis. All stats and opinions are my own.
A quick look back on last week’s post: two previews – Manchester United v Crystal Palace and Southampton v West Ham.
After a lengthy stats review I went with a Manchester United win to nil (2-0 and 3-0 were my score predictions) and a Southampton win (2-1 predicted). Manchester United won 2-0 and Southampton drew 0-0. Not a bad, if unremarkable start.
In hindsight, I should probably have gone with a Southampton clean sheet – the stats suggested as such and with West Ham’s current striker problems, it was a bit of a no-brainer. Moving swiftly along…
3pm kick-off, unless stated.
Saturday
Chelsea v Fulham – 17:30 kick-off.
What is it with 15:00 kick-offs? They’re all incredibly uninteresting these past two weeks.
As with most, if not all rivalries, I would look more deeply in to the head-to-head record. Chelsea v Fulham (or the reverse fixture) has been played 48 times, evenly matched at 24 home games a piece. Chelsea have an astounding record against their local rivals – 29-3-16 and 14-1-9 at Stamford Bridge. The one blemish on that record came way back in 1964 – worth forgiving by now I’m sure. It doesn’t surprise me that Fulham have only 3 victories over Chelsea but the amount of draws played out between them does, given that Chelsea have won the Champions League and Europa League in the last two seasons whereas Fulham have finished no better than 8th in the Premier League in the last four campaigns. The gulf in class is evident, but less apparent when they face off.
Chelsea won the last encounter 0-3, centre-backs David Luiz and John Terry (2) with the goals. Before that the teams played out five consecutive draws – three 0-0’s and two 1-1’s. It’s noteworthy that Chelsea have earned 52 points at Fulham but only 51 when playing at home. In 24 games in Chelsea the home side have only scored 36 goals and conceded 20, so a fairly low-scoring affair is often on the agenda.
It would be irresponsible of me to forget the current form of both sides, however. To put it bluntly, both teams are out of form – Chelsea have one win, one draw and three losses in their last five games in all competitions; Fulham one win, two draws and two losses in their last five. Chelsea have won two of three at home, throwing away a 1-0 lead late vs Basel in the Champions League most recently, while Fulham have a 1-1-1 record away from home this season.
I realise there aren’t too many stats in this review, but in my defence Chelsea v Fulham for anyone who isn’t a Chelsea or Fulham fan is a rather insignificant fixture and judging by recent scorelines, even the Chelsea and Fulham fans don’t enjoy this fixture too much either. I have to make a prediction now don’t I? I can’t pick the blindingly obvious Chelsea or Draw because anyone with half a brain could pick that out – A draw doesn’t look bad value but I’m not confident on that. Two or three goals (for the betting folk – 21/20 Bet365) looks a sound investment.
Sunday
Manchester City v Manchester United – 16:00 kick-off.
What kind of football fan would I be if I didn’t preview Manchester City v Manchester United, potentially the biggest fixture in the English calendar these days? Whether or not you’re a fan of either of these clubs, you have to stand up and take notice because this is a mouth-watering, potentially title winning clash. That might be jumping the gun after just four games, but the momentum and confidence gained from winning a fixture like this can’t be underestimated. On the reverse, a loss is detrimental to one’s locker room – if the losing team is Manchester United, I think they will implode without Sir Alex Ferguson there to guide them. David Moyes and his backroom staff simply don’t have the title challenging experience and mentality to recover after such an important loss. If Manchester United lose, it would be so detrimental that their league season would be over in my opinion.
As mentioned in the Chelsea v Fulham preview, a local derby requires a stronger look at the head-to-head record. Since Manchester City came in to a bit of money back in 2009 there have been 13 fixtures in total – Manchester United 7-1-5 Manchester City. I don’t think the results before 2009 matter any more because Manchester City are as good as a brand new club since then. There have been some incredible matches in that period – does any remember Michael Owen scoring a 96th minute winner for Manchester United in the 4-3 win in 2009? Mark Hughes’ face at the final whistle will forever be in my memory. Who could forget the 1-6 thumping Manchester City dished out back in 2011 – “Why always me?”, the match slogan.
In the 13 games there have been 45 goals, an average of 3.46 goals per game; Manchester City have 23 of those, Manchester United 22. Manchester City have scored in eight consecutive games v Manchester United, they’ve also scored two or more in five of the last six. Last season alone Manchester City games had an average of 2.95 goals per home games and Manchester United away games sat at 3.42 per game. I can only see a game full of goals come Sunday.
This season has been unremarkable for both so far – Manchester City have won three out of five, losing 3-2 to Cardiff and drawing 0-0 with Stoke. It’s a seemingly solid start but they have only beaten newly promoted Hull, last season’s relegation-threatened Newcastle and Viktoria Plzen in the Champions League, a team I would compare to Fulham in terms of Premier League sides. All perfectly winnable fixtures.
Manchester United also won the games they were entitled to win; 1-4 v Swansea on the opening day, a 4-2 win v Leverkusen in the Champions League midweek and a 2-0 win at Old Trafford v Crystal Palace in the middle. I don’t count the Community Shield, a pointless fixture in my personal opinion. However, the match against Chelsea, drawn 0-0, was one of the most cagey, dull games I’ve seen in a long time and the 1-0 loss to Liverpool a week later showed Manchester United in equally as bad a light.
The most eye-catching stat I noticed when reviewing the recent head-to-head’s was the fact that eight of the last 10 matches had been won by just one goal. It’s not a surprising stat because the sides are as evenly matched as two sides can be, but it does give a pointer to how tight these games often are. I think Manchester City will come out on top and my selection will be a straight Manchester City win (6/5) but from a punter’s point of view, Manchester City to win by one goal at 3/1 is a play I would be equally interested in. 1-0, 2-1, 3-2, 4-3, 5-4 even 6-5. I can’t wait for this game.
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