With the last of the European Qualifiers for the World Cup looming tomorrow evening, several international squads will be facing up to the prospects of automatic qualification, a second chance via the playoffs or despair at failing to making the world’s greatest stage. Here, I will be providing a group by group breakdown of what could happen tomorrow night as well as a few predictions too.
Each group winner will qualify. The eight best second-placed teams will go to the play-offs to determine the final four teams with one team missing out. The second-placed teams ranking is determined by results against the first, third, fourth and fifth ranking teams. A bit complex to grasp but it works!
GROUP A
Belgium has already qualified for the World Cup after a 2-1 victory over Croatia. That very same team Belgium beat on Friday, Croatia, could secure a play-off with a victory against Scotland, a team they surprising lost to at home 1-0 in their efforts for qualification. They could miss out, but the chances are highly unlikely.
GROUP B
Italy has dominated Group B with 21 points out of a possible 27 and will be heading to Brazil next summer. At the moment Bulgaria are currently lying in second place whilst Denmark are currently third and both teams have 13 points. Bulgaria has to beat the Czech Republic if they have any chance of getting in the playoffs and hope that results go their way in other groups. Denmark has to beat Malta tomorrow night, hope that Bulgaria draws or loses, and results go their way in other groups too. Armenia, despite being fifth, have an outside chance of making the play-offs, however they would have to beat Italy away by such a margin it would be a near impossible task. I don’t think Bulgaria or Denmark will make the play-offs.
GROUP C
Germany is already through to the World Cup whilst Sweden is guaranteed to be in the play-offs after beating Austria at home 2-1.
GROUP D
The Netherlands are already through to the World Cup with 25 out of 27 points in the bag. Turkey currently lies in second place with Romania only behind them in third by goal difference. Hungary is also in contention for a playoff spot in fourth. At the moment Romania look the most likely to qualify as they face Estonia at home whilst it is a possibility that Hungary could finish third as they will beat minnows Andorra. Turkey, have the Netherlands at home and I think there is a possibility that the Dutch could deliver the same sort of performance as their 8-1 demolition of Hungary last Friday. Expect Romania to be in the play-offs.
GROUP E
Switzerland secured World Cup qualification as they beat Albania away from home 2-1 on Friday. It will be a battle between Iceland and Slovenia to determine who will finish second and could possibly enter the play-offs. Iceland, who currently occupy second place, have to travel to Norway in their bid to secure a play-off spot while Slovenia have to travel to group leaders Switzerland. Iceland will finish second if they win or get a better result than Slovenia. The Slovenian team will finish second if they get a better result than Iceland. Judging by how tough the fixtures are, I would expect Iceland to reach the play-offs, or at least finish second.
GROUP F
Russia has at least secured a play-off spot whilst Portugal have secured at least second place. It is a possibility that despite being three points ahead of Portugal that Russia will fail to get automatic qualification while it is possible that Portugal could end up as the worst second-place team. Neither scenario looks likely to happen as Russia travel to Azerbaijan while Portugal is at home to Luxembourg. Expect wins for both, expect Russia to be in Brazil, and expect Portugal to be in the play-offs.
GROUP G
Both Bosnia and Herzegovina and Greece have secured a play-off spot, but only one can gain automatic qualification. Both teams have 22 points in this qualifying campaign, but Bosnia has a larger goal difference by seventeen. Bosnia and Herzegovina will travel to Lithuania while Greece play host to Liechtenstein.
Assuming Greece will destroy Liechtenstein, Bosnia will have to beat Lithuania away from home to secure an automatic qualification spot. Bosnia has already beaten Lithuania at home 3-0, but Lithuania is a notoriously difficult team at home as they have only dropped four points this campaign. I’m expecting a shock result in Vilinus so I expect Greece to qualify for Brazil while Bosnia-Herzegovina to endure play-off.
GROUP H
Group leaders England have already made the play-offs whilst second-placed Ukraine could secure a play-off spot as well at top of the group. Montenegro could also qualify for the play-offs, mathematically speaking.
Ukraine will beat San Marino away – that’s a guarantee. Therefore, for England to automatically qualify for the World Cup, they have to beat Poland at home. Given that England beat Montenegro 4-1 on Friday at Wembley, it looks like they will beat Poland, a slightly weaker team tomorrow night. England should qualify for Brazil and Ukraine will reach the play-offs.
Oh, and forget about Montenegro – they won’t move on.
GROUP I
Both Spain and France have qualified for the play-offs, with Spain at the top of the group by three points. Assuming that Spain and France will both beat Georgia and Finland respectively, then expect Spain to qualify for the World Cup while Les Bleu will be feeling blue heading into another World Cup play-off.
To Recap, including my predictions:
THOSE WHO WILL QUALIFY/HAVE ALREADY QUALIFIED: Belgium, Italy, Germany, Netherlands, Switzerland, Russia, Greece, England, Spain.
THOSE WHO WILL BE IN THE PLAYOFFS: Croatia, Sweden, Romania, Iceland, Portugal, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Ukraine, France.
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