I have a feeling some college football fans will be calling in sick on Friday, because we’ve got not one but TWO games on Thursday night. Oregon-Stanford should be a fantastic game, but I thought it was time to show some love to the Big XII.
When Baylor Has The Ball
The Bears’ stats this season are eye-popping. First in the nation in points per game (63.9), first in the nation in passing yards per game (417.3), seventh in rushing yards per game (301.1), and sixth in points allowed (15.9). Junior quarterback Bryce Petty is completing just over 69% of his passing, and has thrown 18 TDs with just one INT. Why he isn’t getting more Heisman buzz is beyond me. Petty has TWO receivers with over 800 yards and eight TDs apiece in Antwan Goodley and Tevin Reese, and another four with at least 200 yards and a TD. The ground game is equally impressive, with Lache Seastrunk rushing for 869 yards and 11 TDs, followed by Shock Linwood (443 yards, seven TDs) and Glasco Martin (306 yards, five TDs). Even Petty gets in on the rushing action, with six rushing TDs.
Oklahoma is allowing 18.8 points per game, so something’s got to give. They also rank ninth nationally in passing yards allowed, and 27th in rushing defense. What I said last week about Florida State applies to Baylor as well- it’s a pick-your-poison situation for defenses. If they spread the receivers out wide, you can cover them, but with fewer men in the box, you’re staking a chance of getting gashed up the middle by Seastrunk. There are two things Oklahoma absolutely has to do to have a chance in this game: number one, they need to win the turnover battle. Baylor has too many weapons on offense to let them get extra possessions, and taking some possessions away from them will be helpful. Number two, the Sooners need to get Baylor off the field on third downs. If your defense gets tired, the Bears will make you pay.
When Oklahoma Has The Ball
Jalen Saunders has emerged as the leading receiver, in his second season with Oklahoma after transferring from Fresno State. Saunders and Sterling Shepard lead the team with 431 and 391 yards respectively, and five TDs each. Blake Bell, AKA the Belldozer, has been at the helm since replacing Trevor Knight early in the season. Bell has thrown for 1,348 yards, 10 TDs, and 3 INTs in that time, completing a healthy 63.8% of his passes. Bell has also rushed for 245 yards, although surprisingly he doesn’t have any rushing TDs. Brennan Clay and Damien Williams have combined for 950 yards and eight of the Sooners’ 11 TDs on the ground.
Baylor’s offense gets most of the love, but their defense isn’t too shabby either. They’ve allowed opponents just 1,241 yards passing (sixth-best in the country) and seven passing TDs. On the ground, the Bears are allowing an average of 138.7 yards per game and have allowed six rushing TDs. Against Oklahoma, their top priority has to be stopping the run. In short-yardage situations, that will probably include containing the 6’6″, 252-pound Bell. Sacking a guy that big is obviously not going to be easy, but that doesn’t mean the Bears can afford to give him time to set and make throws. Tight coverage on Saunders and Shepard will be important.
Prediction:
It’s tempting to look at Baylor’s 7-0 record and gaudy numbers and ask, “Yeah, but who have they played?” The answer is, admittedly, an FCS team, two non-AQ FBS teams, and four of the weaker teams in the Big XII. I don’t think the Bears will put up 60 on Oklahoma, but they’re clicking on all cylinders right now, and I think they’ll do enough to win. Baylor 40, Oklahoma 24
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