Thurs. 8:30am – Coffee Bar
Brent Mus”Horney”berger Voice:
“You are looking live at the Mandalay Bay casino and sports book. This is the Fat & Skinny Post!”
It’s damn hard enough being in Las Vegas with multiple distractions at every turn. You know, all the beautiful women’s fashions, cheesy off-Broadway shows and comedians, and a wealth of fat women who were sitting on the same chair at 8am playing the same slot machine as they were when I saw them, when I crashed at 2am. But to trying to pen a coherent half-ass column from Las Vegas is like trying to count floor tiles when a hot blonde walks past in a pair tights (and Bless the garcon in France for bringing those back…. I salute you!).
Thurs. 11:00am – Sports Book
As I skip the last day of a mundane tradeshow, I, like a magnet, am drawn to the sportsbook in Mandalay Bay to consider several wagers for the Saints-Niners:
1. Will Harbaugh pull a “Schwartz” when shaking hands with the Saints Supreme Commander? As pompous as Harbaugh can be, I wouldn’t put it past him.
(See: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uzfTC1XW_yQ.)
If that ever happened, I am sure our new cross-fit trained coach would drop him like a prom dress!
2. Will the Saints revitalized run game be anomaly-like “lead”, once again by their former 1st rounder Mark Ingram, who like most Crimson Tide running backs has crapped the bed to this point in his career. Or is it that Alabama running backs obviously do not buy enough steaks or trips to Vegas for their O-Line. Prime example is Indy’s blocking since the Richardson trade, reminding me of the way the Saints have historically blocked for Ingram. That is until before last week. I’ve seen better blocking in youth basketball.
3. Will Aldon Smith have an increased roll in Harbaugh’s plan, and will it happen with out him showing up drunk and shooting at the officials in the parking lot?
Thurs. 4:45pm – Sports Book Bar Area
Back at Sports Book, at the bar, on a second watered down beer that tastes like piss. With the Thurs. night game about to start, hundreds gather in the Mandalay Sports Book to waiver on TY Hilton (5:1) scoring the first down, and sizeable bets on whether Ryan Fitzpicksix will indeed throw one. We bet the field at 10:1 and of course CJ2K decides to flash some brilliance. I go back to drinking beer.
After 4th pint, and beer knowledge chat with the Donna the bartender, I start to drift away from Indy-Tennessee. Frankly, I don’t give a crap about the Titans sinking ship (btw, b-bye Titans). Thinking of my Saints, I have decided that Mark Ingram is out to shock the world this Sunday. I believe he will play like “me against the world and try and truly save his dying career against what has been portrayed as the fiercest, toughest, bully-like team in the league the past 2 seasons. After multiple libations, feeling confident about them.
Thurs. 8:30pm – Some Irish Pub @ Mandalay Bay
A meatloaf burger, some hot wings, and a few more pints of Irish while watching the Colts slip by the Titans (btw – Colts are now vanilla w/o Reggie Wayne), I am starting to have second thoughts about Ingram. I feel like I am screwing around on my fave Pierre Thomas. Though I have not seen the BEAST that was the Niners last year, I can’t forget Gregg (Thank God You’re Gone) Williams not putting a safety over the top in Frisco 2 years ago, which directly cost the Who Dat Nation a SB reprise. IDIOT! And I can’t get last year’s multiple interceptions uncharacteristically thrown by Brees. With concussion syndrome hitting the Saints hard (Ben Watson, Kenny Vaccaro) this week, and the beer slowing my motor coordination, I am leaning to an old school Niners getting back on track, out of desperation.
Thurs. 11pm – Las Vegas Airport
Man oh Man, have you ever just sat in an airport after (after several pints) and tried to simultaneously write a column and watch women walk by in happy moods because their just arriving in Disneyland of Excess for adults that is Las Vegas? Having some discretionary time to forecast the injuries, I cannot decide if Patton-MacDonald out for the Niners or Watson-Vaccaro out for the Saints is a larger factor. And of course, can slightly concussed Vernon Davis @ questionable be a larger factor.
Fri. 2am – on Red Eye Flight from Vegas
I hate overnight flights. Especially with Vegas body odor engulfing 3 rows around me. No sleep means more analytical dribble. In as much as the Saints D has gravitated back to normality, they still are having a tough time with the large runs. Horrific play by MLB Curtis Lofton these past 6 games, compounded by the “outplaying himself, but not healthy” David Hawthorne status, leads me to think that Frank Gore may be the biggest factor in the game. The bright spot in the Saint’s Run D has been my boy – Akiem Hicks, currently among the best interior/exterior lineman vs. the run league wide. Whether in or outside, Hicks has been a beast. Cam Jordan is OK vs. the run, but runs into beast Joe Staley, among the top 3 tackles in the game today. With an anemic pass attack, the ability to run Gore, and short pass to Davis who should play, leads me to lean toward the Niners.
Fri. 6:30am – Chicago O’Hare
More analysis in a hung-over state… hobbled but all-in-all not effected Jimmy Graham leads the NFL in targets, yards, TD’s, hot women hanging off him, and free bowls of jambalaya and etouffee’ Crescent city wide. And Graham is all but unstoppable, especially when Lance Moore and “just returned to his norm” Marques Colston are getting separation as legit targets.
But Niner safeties are stingy. They allow yards and catches, but not TD’s. They have NOT ALLOWED a TD all year, and you combine that with middle coverage of beast Patrick Willis, and Graham has a good chance to be neutralized.
Fri. 11am – drinking crappy coffee at another airport.
Tired of thinking of this, to be honest. This is a stellar weekend of premium games, directly in the midst of “every weekend now counts” toward the playoffs and seedings. So
Keys To The Game:
1. With a less than healthy D, Brees NEEDS to continue his dominant home play. Without a pick in 160 throws, he needs to open up a tough and physically dominant Niners D. And from that, will facilitate the possibility of a complimentary run game. Continuing a record setting first down barrage like last week (40 ) would help, but a modicum of that would help.
2. Mark Ingram getting his own “Beast Mode” and with Thomas continues to contribute to a prolific passing attack. Saints Offense is #2, but the Niners, a few men short, remain bull-like.
3. Saints D must slow down Frank Gore, and do it at the line of scrimmage. Gore will again be the centerpoint of the Niners moving the ball. The gloss on Kaepernick as being the second coming of … is “no longer!”
4. The Niners, with decisive wins vs. the Saints the past two years gives them a psychological edge. The fact is that their last game in the Superdome, ending in a heart-wrenching defeat, may either be more motivation, or more of a stigma.
5. The return of Roman Harper must partially make up for the Vaccaro absence, even if to add to the pass rush.
6. The return of rehab felony DE Aldon Smith – is Smith still the same guy who pummels opposing quarterbacks (34 sacks in first 2 seasons) or is he a different beast on the end. Saints O-line SHOULD have their hands full. And like my ad-nauseam critical success factors on how to beat Brees or Manning or Brady or Rogers – BREAK THEM DOWN. Brees’ pressure rate is one in four, and based on recent past history, and the re-addition of Smith, that % should increase.
A power outage is not encouraged, remembering the onslaught of Niner offense after the last one. Can’t forget Brees’ key picks last year. Sorry WHO DAT, going with gut. It’s a sizable one.
Niners get a special teams TD, squeeze one out to save their division hopes.
Niners 26 Saints 24
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