It’s the game we’ve all been waiting for! Can Florida State finish off its unbeaten season, or does Auburn have one more surprise in store?
Jan. 6, 8:30pm EST ESPN
When Florida State Has The Ball
Everyone knows by now that Florida State has put up some ridiculous numbers on offense. (Defense too, actually, but let’s focus on offense first). First in average points per game. Fifth in total offense. First in red zone offense. Third in converting on third downs. And so forth and so on. And of course, we all know about the guy who leads the offense, Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Jameis Winston. Winston has thrown for 3,820 yards, 38 TDs, and 10 picks, completing 67.9% of his passes, and he’s surrounded by some pretty impressive talent as well. Any or all of the Seminoles’ top three receivers- Rashad Greene, Kelvin Benjamin, and Kenny Shaw- could reach the 1,000-yard mark in the title game, with current totals of 981, 957, and 929 respectively. Tight end Nick O’Leary is a big part of the passing game as well. Those four players have combined for 36 receiving TDs. The ground game, led by Devonta Freeman, is no less impressive. Freeman leads the team in rushing scores, with 13, and he too could reach the 1,000-yard plateau on Monday night. Karlos Williams and James Wilder Jr. have combined for another 1,247 yards and 19 TDs, and Winston has rushed for four TDs as well. Obviously the line has performed well with regards to blocking for the running backs, but one thing to keep an eye on is whether they can keep Winston upright (and whether Winston can get the ball out quickly) against Auburn’s pass rush- he’s been sacked 29 times.
Auburn’s defensive numbers aren’t great, but one thing to keep in mind is that the team improved (on both sides of the ball) as the season went on. The strength of the defense is the front four, three of who are seniors and returning starters. Those guys versus the offensive line of the ‘Noles should be a great battle. With three capable running backs for Florida State, stopping the run will be critical, yet with three excellent receivers (four, counting the TE O’Leary), putting extra men at the line of scrimmage is not an option. Not a good one, anyway. The defensive backs are going to have to be near-perfect in coverage downfield. One thing in Auburn’s favor? They have a seventh-ranked red zone defense in the country.
When Auburn Has The Ball
Quarterback Nick Marshall was just another guy on the depth chart when spring practice began. By September, he had won the starting job for an Auburn team that won just three games- none of the conference games- in 2012. Marshall isn’t the most polished passer (1,759 yards, 12 TDs, five INTs), but between his running ability and the skilled players around him, the Tigers get the job done. Marshall has rushed for 1,023 yards and 11 TDs, second only to primary running back Tre Mason (1,621 yards, 22 TDs). Corey Grant and Cameron Artis-Payne have provided a nice extra dimension to the running game, with 650 and 609 yards respectively, and six TDs apiece. Sammie Coates leads the receiving corps with 841 yards and 7 TDs; six other players have at least one of the Tigers’ 18 passing TDs. Another guy to watch is fullback Jay Prosch. He doesn’t get the ball all that often, but at 6’1″ and 258 pounds, Prosch is a mauler when it comes to blocking. Against Florida State’s stiff run defense, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Prosch get a couple of carries, especially in short yardage, and maybe a screen pass or two. To sum it up, this is clearly a very run-centric offense, but it works- Auburn has the top rushing attack in the nation, while the passing game ranks 107th, and here they are in the BCS Championship.
Florida State boasts the third-best total defense in the country. The run defense ranks 13th, and they allow the fewest passing yards in the nation. The ‘Noles also lead the nation in passes intercepted, with 25, and no single player has more than four of them. If they can force Auburn into passing situations, the Tigers could be in trouble. Marshall improved as the season went on, but his accuracy and decision-making will need to be spot-on against the secondary of Florida State. The ‘Noles could try some stunts and different looks in an attempt to confuse a first-year starting quarterback, but their primary objective should be to stop the run and contain Marshall in the pocket. Get Auburn into third-and-long, and make Marshall beat you with his arm rather than his legs- or his running backs.
Prediction:
First of all, I have to give huge props to Auburn for their turnaround this year. I picked them to go 5-7, and most prediction I saw were in that neighborhood. To go from three wins, and zero SEC wins, to going 11-1 and winning the conference is phenomenal. That said, this Florida State team is something else. The depth and level of talent Jimbo Fisher has stockpiled in Tallahassee is Saban-esque, and will play a role in this game. Florida State 47, Auburn 24
