The overall status of a team is usually rated somewhere on what’s called the “win curve” by sports analysts. At its most basic level, there are three general stages of the win curve. Two immediately come to mind; winning and losing. Then there’s a third, murkier (and uglier) stage.
It’s called stagnation. That doesn’t necessarily mean that the team isn’t winning or isn’t losing. It’s possible to be stagnated and lose a ton. I define “stagnation” as being stuck in the mud. It’s being in a negative situation with no end in sight. There are a few teams out there that have been in various levels of stagnation, and they will be discussed here, but it’s the Colorado Rockies that prompted this article. It’s no secret that the Rockies are in something of a downward spiral this year. They’re the owners of the worst record in the NL coming into Tuesday night’s action, at 40-59. Despite averaging 4.66 runs scored per game, they own a run differential of -61.
Part of that stratification is the fact that they play at Coors Field, and it’s one heck of a double-edged sword. The Rockies will score a ton of runs, and the opposition will score a ton of runs too. One way to counteract that would be to run a lot of really good ground ball pitchers out there; guys in the Tim Hudson mold. That just hasn’t happened, for a number of reasons. The Rocks started the season with some pretty decent names in their staff. They had Jorge De La Rosa, Jhoulys Chacin and Brett Anderson taking up slots, and all of those pitchers are net pluses. Jordan Lyles, who came over from Houston in the Dexter Fowler trade, was also surprisingly good coming out of the gate.
But then, the baseball gods remembered, “Hey, these are the Rockies. What gives?” Brett Anderson in the shock of the year hit the disabled list, as did Chacin and Lyles. In fact, the Rockies have used no fewer than twelve different starters this year. De La Rosa has been awful. It got so bad, that when top prospect Eddie Butler was called up straight from Double-A to stop the bleeding, he (you guessed it) was promptly placed on the DL. Oh, and just before Tuesday’s game the ever-fragile superstar Troy Tulowitzki was placed on the 15-Day DL after he was poised to sit out his third straight game with what obviously wasn’t a thigh cramp (it’s being listed as a hip flexor issue).
This isn’t exactly old hat for the Rockies, though. They haven’t been particularly successful since their magical “Rocktober” run to the playoffs in 2007 and subsequent two over .500 seasons. In fact, they’ve finished in last place in both of their last two seasons, and seem poised to pull it off again. They’ve only won four games in July, and only two in the second half of June. Yet owners Charlie and Dick Monfort have both expressed reluctance to sell Tulowitzki and fellow superstar Carlos Gonzalez. In fact, in early July, they said they had even looked into being buyers at the deadline, going as far as to check in on the Cubs’ asking price for Jeff Samardzija.
Part of the Monfort’s reasoning in not wanting to sell off Tulo and CarGo is respectable. The two, despite their penchant for constantly getting hurt, are stars and huge draws to the ballpark. Tons of kids are growing up in Colorado wearing their jerseys. To trade them away would undoubtedly alienate many of them, especially if they were moved to a juggernaut like the Red Sox, Cardinals or Yankees. That would potentially damage an entire fanbase, adults and children alike, for years to come. It would then be a long wait for prospects to develop, and hope a star is among them.
If you look at the Colorado top prospects, it’s difficult to find a potential star position player. Outfielders David Dahl and Ramiel Tapia figures to be very good, but a genuine star is hard to find. They may potentially have future stars in pitchers Eddie Butler and Jon Gray, but unless they round out into Clayton Kershaw-level studs, it’s difficult to rely on someone who only plays every five days to be the main draw to a ballpark. And while the Colorado system isn’t starved for good prospects, the team is in last place for a reason. The personnel on the field are too injury-prone, and the pitchers too poor. Tulowitzki would bring a king’s ransom of prospects, especially if Colorado agrees to absorb some of his sizeable salary. The value of a hitter as good as Tulowitzki who plays amazing defense at shortstop cannot be overstated. His only drawback is injury history, which is substantial and not likely to slow down. Gonzalez as well would bring a good return, despite (again) injury concerns. Even De La Rosa could fetch a half-decent return at this year’s deadline from a team starved for pitching (the Orioles, Cardinals, Yankees, Blue Jays, and Pirates come to mind). Moving just those three would bring an embarrassment of riches to the Colorado system, yet the Monfort’s are standing pat. Trades of superstars are not unheard of, and the Colorado fans are undoubtedly tired of watching the same group of players sputter year after year.
Stagnation, more than anything else, can turn a fanbase bitter and sour away from supporting the team. What incentive does the casual fan have to continually support a team that has seemingly lost the ability to win? A couple fanbases that have recently dealt with this quandary are those of the Phillies and Royals. The Phillies also peaked recently in the late 2000’s, winning the World Series in 2008 and reaching it again in 2009. The already rabid Philadelphia fans only got hungrier. The team was built around impressive stars like Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Jimmy Rollins. The pitching staff seemed to be one of the best in history. Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Pedro Martinez, and Roy Oswalt all had stints as Phillies.
However, the last few years have not been kind to the Phillies. They’ve failed to make any substantial noise in the standings, and GM Ruben Amaro Jr. has failed to do much rebuilding, which has earned him a reputation as one of the worst GM’s in baseball. The only notable sale was that of Hunter Pence to San Francisco, where he’s blossomed into a fan favorite. Amaro has been content to build around the beleaguered Howard and aging Rollins, as if they would both suddenly recapture their younger dominance. Even just this past offseason, Amaro retained Carlos Ruiz, and added Marlon Byrd, AJ Burnett, and Roberto Hernandez. Despite his acquisitions, the club was clearly still in no place to contend while Washington and Atlanta still exited in the division. Yet Amaro said he expected his club to contend, and lo and behold, they sat at 43-56 and 12 games back coming into Tuesday’s games.
Yet unlike previous years, Amaro has said he is preparing to sell. Byrd, Burnett, Lee, Hamels, Jonathan Paplebon and even Chase Utley have all been the subjects of heated trade rumors. Finally, if two seasons too late, Amaro is facing reality and selling. The sunk cost of free agent acquisitions and a sparse farm, though, have already taken their toll. Unlike the Rockies, the Phillies do not have desirable depth in their system. They can only claim one true top prospect (J.P. Crawford), and one who may turn into a valuable DH/bench bat (Maikel Franco). That’s about it. We may be looking at the beginning of a youth movement in Philadelphia.
The Royals have stagnated in a different way than the other two teams. The Royals actually started a youth movement of their own, and it finally blossomed into a winning season last year with a second place 86-76. The gamble trade of Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi to Tampa for ace James Shields seemed like a worthy venture, and first baseman Eric Hosmer may have finally rounded into a star. GM Dayton Moore put his chips all in this offseason, with Shields set to hit free agency in the coming winter. He acquired Nori Aoki from Milwaukee to be his leadoff hitter, and signed Omar Infante, fresh off an impressive season for rival Detroit, to man the keystone. Jason Vargas was brought in to replace Ervin Santana in the rotation.
For a while it seemed like the gamble had worked. A slow start gave way to a massive ten-game winning streak that pushed them past Detroit. The winning streak ended on June 18th. Since that time, the Royals have won only nine games. It’s a frustrating time in Kansas City, as nothing seems to work in invigorating the team. Hitting coaches have come and gone, and the lockdown bullpen hasn’t been enough. It’s difficult to fully utilize talented closer Greg Holland when there aren’t any save opportunities. At 48-50, the Royals are eight games out, and Cleveland is surging. Moore is as stubborn as any of the other executives mentioned above, but doesn’t seem like he’ll buy… or sell. Moore has said he wants his current corps to be the ones that delivers them to the promised land, but clearly they aren’t capable of that. DH Billy Butler alone could fetch a good haul of prospects, to say nothing of Shields himself. The problem with Kansas City’s farm is that it’s graduated almost all of its plus prospects, and they haven’t panned out. The overwhelming majority of the Royals’ top prospects reside at Double-A or lower, and none of them are ready to help the big club. Any aide would have to come from outside, or Moore can admit the experiment has failed and start selling.
Given the prevailing culture of extensions and micromanagement of service time, teams cannot expect to look to free agency as a reliable source of talent. Teams will have to try to build from the inside, and if losing seems to be a way of life for some teams, why not sell? Why not look to the future rather than stubbornly stand pat and hope for a change? Not only is it a backwards way of operating and unfair to the fans, but it’s a flagrantly irresponsible allocation of resources. Only Philadelphia can claim to be a “large-market team,” and they’re the ones who actually might be selling for once. It’s time to not only do one’s job, but also look to the future and do what’s responsible for the fans’ sake. In the short run, the trades of players like Tulowitzki and Butler may alienate fans, but in the long run a possible home-grown dynasty will increase the fanbase fivefold. Stagnation is ugly, plain and simple. How much longer must the fans be subject to it?
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