Fabber’s Believe It or Not. An Owner’s Manual on How to Draft a Winning Team.
It was big night for me last night, it was 10 years in the making and it was worth every second of it.
I feel I have overachieved most of my life. I say that because simply, it’s true. I have made game winning shoots (yes banks do count) but always had better players on my team. I am lucky enough to have the world’s greatest mom while being one of the biggest pain in the____ (you can fill in the blank, that will show how well you know me) of a kid. I landed great jobs, way above my head but found my way to success. I am blessed enough to get paid to write and talk about sports even though many do it better (that’s what I read on twitter at least). I married a woman who was too good for me and I haven’t caught up yet. But most of all I have the best daughter one could ever imagine, she is amazing. She will be turning 11 in a couple months and last night she once again filled my heart with joy.
Last night when my daughter came back from her mother’s she told me she had a secret for me. I like most people that have a 10 year old thought it was a missing tooth or something that I would have one of those don’t ever do that again moments. Well I was definitely in for a surprise. She went on to tell me she had a talk with her mother and she decided something on her own. She decided she wanted to add my last name to her last name. Wow, now picture me holding back tears of joy with all my power (I guess it isn’t a lot because I held them back for about 10 seconds till it looked like Niagara Falls ran through my eyeballs). When Briana was born her mother didn’t add my name to hers on the birth certificate so till now she didn’t have the only thing that is truly mine, my last name.
I tell you this for a couple reasons; I will always be upfront and honest with the readers. I will welcome you into my life, the good, the bad, the ugly. I wanted you to visualize the smile I have on my face and had it there for 24 hours plus some. I also told you this because I waited 10 years for this day where she chose to have the only piece of me that no one could ever take away, my last name. So when you are freaking out about how the draft is too far away remember you didn’t have to wait 10 years at least.
This week we are going to talk about different strategies you can put in place to have a better chance to compete in your league on draft day. Remember this because you will not hear truer words spoken, you cannot win your league on draft day but you sure can lose it quick. So let’s get started
Point total weekly is your objective. Listen I know we love big names and total points but fantasy football is about weekly scoring. Every week is a season to itself, so if you win the most weekly battles chances suggest that you are a playoff team. After comparing data from ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, and NFL network leagues the magic number is 100 points. 100 points a week in a standard league will win mostly every week. You aim for 10 wins, that’s a playoff spot in most leagues in most years. The goal should be to draft a team that gets you 100 points every week and the subs to fill in to keep that going as closely as possible.
We all look for late round gems but three strikes and you are out. I love the feeling of getting a potential big point player in the later rounds, as I am sure you do as well. The truth is that’s not what wins your league for you at all. Sure it’s great bragging rights calling Julius Thomas last year to have a breakout year (as I did by the way) or to call Zac Stacy would be the best back in Saint Louis a year ago (I did that as well). The better part was both were listed 3rd on the depth chart to start camp and boom but still not it. The first three picks are the most crucial picks of your draft. For if you miss the chances to recover are slim to none. That is why I preach no reaches, no hopes, and no red flags for the first three rounds. Play it as safe as possible for those rounds and hope you get it right. This is not the time for the next great hype, show your allegiance to your team and/or love to your favorite player. Like I said be safe, be smart and have a chance to win in the end.
Rosters mean something but they do not mean as much as you think. I am saying the data shows that if you have a normal roster with the position totals near the common average it doesn’t do much for playoff chances either way. That being said you go in looking for five running backs, five wide receivers, one or two QB (if you don’t have an elite QB draft two), Same with tight ends, and one kicker/ defense. Those are normally the best totals to have on a roster to have the best chance at the playoffs. Remember the goal is to make the playoffs because that means you have a chance to win it all.
Match-ups are great but players are better. I hear this phrase often and it makes me go closer and closer to the edge of losing it. The good old strategy of playing the matchups goes something like this, “why draft a QB, I will just pick one up every week depending on who is playing who”. Really, what makes you think that’s a good idea? Maybe if you are playing people that do not know what they are doing that could work but not so much in the real world (no not that show that I tortured my eyeballs with on MTV, how I miss it). There is a reason those players are not drafted or picked up already. I am all about playing the waiver wire for fill-ins and potential but to play for every week starters is foolish. Do not get me wrong, I completely understand defensive match-ups per week and even kickers to a point. That doesn’t mean do your whole team that way, draft starters for skilled positions.
Do I draft the same position in back to back rounds? This is a known strategy and I receive this question in emails daily. The answer is, you could but it depends on many factors. You do not go back to back on QBs, TEs, DEFs, or Ks. Now that we removed those positions we are left with RB and WR. I can see someone doing that with either of those two but buyer beware. If you use two picks in a row on the same position you could leave your team in a really bad position. You can end up weak in a couple positions and strong in only one (that is an easy way to lose a league). I would recommend only going for the back to back if it’s later in the draft when you are gathering depth, it shouldn’t hurt your chances at that point.
Can you ever have enough running backs? Easy answer is no! You want to get the big bucks, no whammies in this position. You want to get quality and quantity as early and as often as you can. I love taking what I call a backbone back early in the draft (1st or 2nd round) and I love having three running backs in my first six picks. That is how much they mean to your team. Very few times have I ever seen a team compete in fantasy football when they had a mess in their running back position. Want to compete? Well make sure you get some back (even Sir Mix A Lot agrees with that point).
The league is getting deeper and deeper, so I can wait longer and longer for talent. HECK NO!!!!! The league is definitely getting deeper with time and more players are having an impact in the NFL. That much is true but that is horrible for fantasy football players. Get the shocked look off your face and keep reading to understand. The deeper the league gets the less consistency the league has. So finding true value and talent is harder to find, which makes those talented players so much more valuable to grab up. I do not want a guy who can go for 20 points one week and the nest week TWO. That kills a fantasy owner and playing the guessing game every week gets old quick. I want the Jamal Charles that consistently gets me double digits. I might not love him this year but there was a reason I did last year. Scoop up talent; it will get harder to find it.
How do you make sure to win your fantasy league? No seriously I get this question for 4 months straight dozens of times a day. I wish there was an equation I could give you to make it that simple but there isn’t and it doesn’t exist. The best any one of us can do is prepare, look up everything you have time to read, pay attention, focus, play the waiver wire, look for possible trades and lots of hope. We study this everyday all year and still we cannot predict the future still (I know what a failure I am right). I can’t promise you will win your league listening to what I tell you or listening to anyone else that uses that term I hate “expert”. The most important part of any of this is having fun, enjoy it.
The draft is only the beginning! Your job doesn’t end with you last pick. Do not get me wrong, after the draft is over put your team up in front of you and enjoy the beauty of your creation. The next day it’s back to work! Pay attention to practices, injury report, weather, etc. Look up possible trades, which players are hot and which ones are cold. Keep working to give your team the best chance to win and to get all the bragging rights. Good luck!
Thank you for reading. Please take a moment to follow me on Twitter – @CoachMikeFX. Support LWOS by following us on Twitter – @LastWordOnSport and @LWOSworld – and “liking” our Facebook page.
For the latest in sports injury news, check out our friends at Sports Injury Alert.
