Last season 3 teams made the playoffs in what was clearly the best division in the AFC. The team that didn’t? The Oakland Raiders. They went and spent a ton of money in free agency trying to catch up to the rest of the division. Meanwhile the leaders, the Broncos were spending to try and win a Super Bowl. What happens in 2014 with all the new additions?
2014 AFC West Predictions
Denver Broncos: 2013 Season Record (13-3)
Any previous worries of the recourse from Peyton Manning’s four neck surgeries is a distant memory, as he set an NFL record with 55 touchdown passes, and the Broncos became the most prolific offense in NFL history. I do expect the offense to regress in 2014 as Manning is now 38 years old and after the numbers they put up in 2013, there is only one way to go from there.
The offense will bid farewell to running back Knowshon Moreno and wide receiver Eric Decker, but should be okay as the acquisition of Emmanuel Sanders from Pittsburgh will fill in for Decker just fine. Also, Montee Ball will have a huge breakout year this season, and is a much better runner than Moreno anyway. Denver will, however, miss the blocking ability of Moreno, as Ball is more of just a pure runner.
After the beat-down the Seahawks put on Denver in the Super Bowl, the Broncos made it their mission to get better on the defensive side of the ball. They did just that. Key signings of defensive end DeMarcus Ware, cornerback Aqib Talib and safety T.J. Ward will make the Broncos even better in 2014 than they were last season. A tougher schedule on slate will keep them around a 12 win team, but way ahead of the next best team in the division.
2014 Projection: 12-4
San Diego Chargers: 2013 Season Record (9-7)
Phillip Rivers had a resurgent year after looking completely done following his 2012 debacle. One of the key reasons for this was the steal of the 2013 NFL draft in third round selection, wide receiver Keenan Allen. Allen hauled in 71 receptions in 2013, for a total of 1,046 yards and eight touchdowns, and looks to be one of the future stars of the league. They also have a deep running back trio in Ryan Mathews, Donald Brown and Danny Woodhead that should keep the offense on the field to move the chains.
The Chargers need to face reality and begin to let tight end Antonio Gates fade off into the sunset. He is a shadow of his former self and can no longer block to save his life. They have one of the most gifted, athletic TE’s in the game in Ladarius Green and it is time to get him more involved.
The defense struggled early and often, but started to gel for the final six weeks of the season, allowing them to sneak into the playoffs, and pull the upset over the Cincinnati Bengals. If the defense can keep the momentum rolling into 2014, combined with the powerful offense, the Chargers should be able to stay above .500 and be around the nine-win mark once again.
2014 Projection: 9-7
Kansas City Chiefs: 2013 Season Record (11-5)
Kansas City was a consensus sleeper pick by many–myself included–in 2013. They lived up to the billing by rebounding from the worst record in the NFL (2-14) to finishing with an 11-5 record last year. The Chiefs made it to the playoffs and held an astounding 38-10 lead into the 3rd quarter against Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts before they collapsed in the 4th quarter and lost 45-44 in the second-largest comeback in NFL playoff history.
Alex Smith is often referred to as a “game manager,” as opposed to a top-tier quarterback that can lead a team to victory. In 2013, being a game manager was all Smith had to be. The Chiefs were the benefactor of a last place team and the easiest schedule in the whole NFL, which was a key component in their success. The final 7 games of the season they had to play tough games, and subsequently went 2-5 down the stretch.
In 2014, the Chiefs will have the second hardest schedule in the NFL, behind the Oakland Raiders. Besides having to play the Denver Broncos twice, they will also face the mighty NFC West, the New England Patriots and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Smith won’t be able to rely on just dink-and-dunk passing, Jamaal Charles and a defense to win games for him.
With the departure of Dexter McCluster and a rapidly-declining Dwayne Bowe, Smith has few weapons to work with besides Charles. Good news is that Charles is one of the few elite players in the game, and is a beast to stop as he led the NFL in touchdowns in 2013 with 19.
At the end of the day, the Chiefs are not nearly as bad as their 2-14 season two years ago, but they are also not nearly as good as their 11-5 season last year. There’s a saying “Water always finds its level.” With the Chiefs, that level is seven or eight wins.
2014 Projection: 7-9
Oakland Raiders: 2013 Season Record (4-12)
After a four-win season, the Oakland Raiders decided to completely alter the look of the team. They went out and signed quarterback Matt Schaub, running back Maurice Jones-Drew, wide receiver James Jones, and offensive tackle Donald Penn on the offensive side of the ball. Defensively, they added defensive ends Justin Tuck and LaMarr Woodley, cornerback Carlos Rogers as well as bringing back the legendary Charles Woodson.
This will bring excitement to the “Black Hole” and rejuvenate the Raider fan base, as these are all household names. The problem lies in the fact that this is not 2011 anymore, and most of these players are way past their prime. A team filled with newly-acquired veterans is scary. It is very likely that after a 3-6 start that many of them will start to quit on head coach Dennis Allen.
Offensive coordinator Greg Olson is a genius and should be able to extract some value from Schaub and help eliminate most of his pick sixes. Darren McFadden has been an injury-prone bust so far, but his new training regimen has him the healthiest he has been; with this, “Run DMC” is looking for a possible breakout year in 2014.
Did you know that the infamous home field advantage of the “Black Hole” is an abysmal 69-83 record at home since 1995. I do like the fact that the Raiders at least look to have their QB of the future in Derek Carr, and picked up a future Pro Bowl linebacker in this year’s draft in Khalil Mack. Reality though, considering the brutal schedule the Raiders will face in 2014 (the toughest schedule in the whole NFL), they will be lucky to win five games at the most.
2014 Projection (4-12)
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