Over the past three offseasons, the Chicago Cubs have acquired cheap, veteran starting pitchers only to flip them later in the season for prospects.The strategy has worked well for the Cubs the past few years as it has helped them build their impressive farm system and find stop-gap players while their prospects work their way up the ranks.
In 2012, it was Paul Maholm. The Cubs traded him and Reed Johnson to the Atlanta Braves for Arodys Vizcaino. Vizcaino has worked at all 3 minor league levels and earned a September call-up a few days ago. In 2013, they signed Scott Feldman to a one-year deal and flipped him at the deadline to the Baltimore Orioles. That trade gave the Cubs their current ace Jake Arrieta and quality bullpen arm Pedro Strop. To complete the trilogy, the Cubs signed Jason Hammel this past offseason, only to package him with Jeff Samarzdijia in a blockbuster deal with the Oakland Athletics that netted the Cubs uber-prospect Addison Russell, Billy McKinney, and Dan Straily.
How were the Cubs able to find these pitchers and sign them to short, relatively cheap contracts and yet have them be effective enough to reap the aforementioned benefits?
Basically, the Cubs’ front office looked for pitchers that outpitched their ERAs or had just had one outlier of a bad year. They found pitchers that were either unlucky or had bad defenses behind them. In short, their ERAs were significantly higher than their FIPs. This would mean that their underlying metrics would point towards better performance in the future.
In 2012, Feldman had an unspectacular 5.09 ERA, leaving him 17% worse than the average pitcher that year. However, he posted a 3.81 FIP which indicated that he pitched better than what his ERA gave him credit for. Feldman did indeed rebound and pitched to the tune of a 3.86 ERA and 98 ERA- in 2013, including 3.46 ERA and 3.93 FIP in his 15 starts with Chicago. With Hammel, on the other hand, the Cubs bet that they could return to their prior form. From 2009-2012, Hammel averaged 2.9 WAR per year; not all-star caliber by any means, but certainly better than the .6 WAR he posted in 2013 with the Orioles. With Maholm, the Cubs bet that he could keep up his performance after posting an average of 2 WAR each from 2007-2011 during his age 25-29 seasons. He did just that and accounted for 2.1 wins in 2012.
Possible Chicago Cubs Pitching Targets This Offseason
This history lesson is great and all, but what does it matter now? Well, the Cubs’ formula has been successful, so they may try their hand at it again this offseason. Therefore, I want to identify some free agent pitchers the Cubs may target this offseason based on the above guidelines.
Justin Masterson
Masterson has pitched rather unspectacularly this season, posting a 6.03 ERA and issuing 4.8 walks per nine innings. Not good. However, his FIP resides at 4.50, and his xFIP (which adjusts for park factors and HR/FB %) is 4.05. Getting better. Masterson has been unable to keep balls in the park this season, sporting a 15.2 HR/FB %. The league average rate is around 10%. His FB% as a whole has decreased 3%, but batters are just hitting flyballs out more frequently than in the past. One can assume that he will not continue to give up homeruns at his current rate, and thus his ERA and FIP will come back down to respectable values.
Colby Lewis
In 25 starts with the Rangers, Lewis has pitched to the tune of a 5.42 ERA: not great when you’re in a contract year. However, his FIP is only 4.33, suggesting that he has gotten poor defense behind him or just unlucky when batters make contact. Indeed, the Rangers rank as the 10th worst defense in the majors in terms of defense WAR. This undoubtedly contributes to Lewis’ .356 BABIP, which is about .056 points above the league average. If he were receiving even average defense behind him, his results would be much better. However, Lewis is 35 years old right now and probably peaked in 2010 when he posted a WAR of 4.9.
Brandon McCarthy
All season long, McCarthy has been the poster boy for pitchers who pitch better than their ERAs suggest. While with the Diamondbacks he had a 5.01 ERA but a 3.81 FIP, one of the largest ERA-FIP discrepancies in the majors. Since being traded to the New York Yankees, he has pitched like the ace he always ways. He has posted a 2.80 ERA while striking out 22.5% of batters he faces. Meanwhile, his xFIP has stayed relatively the same, varying only from 2.89 to 2.78, suggesting that he was capable of his performance in a Yankee uniform all year. However, now that McCarthy has begun to pitch like the top-of-the-rotation starter he can be, other teams may have taken notice and he may not be as easy of a pitcher to acquire come the offseason.
These three pitchers represent the free agents of 2015 who have the largest splits between their FIPs and their ERAs, a recurring theme among low-profile pitcher signings of the Cubs. This offseason, however, the Cubs may want to make a splash with one of the big names available: Jon Lester, Max Scherzer, James Shields as the Cubs are looking more and more like a competitive MLB team as 2014 comes to a close. However, if the formula has worked for them in the past, there’s no reason why they wouldn’t try to strike gold again; except this time, hang on to whomever they sign past July 31st.
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