This week, the ever revolving door that is closer jobs is turning faster than ever. Here’s a look at some of the closing situations and where the best opportunities to scrounge for saves lie.
In evaluating each of these save scrounging opportunities, I’m looking for three things which will be scored on a scale of one to five and be accumulated to give a stability score. The higher this score, the more likely the team’s closing situation will benefit your team.
1) Are the save opportunities abundant (at the team level)?
2) What is the official team closer status?
3) Do I think the replacement (or potential replacement) can do well?
Closer Situations to Monitor
Change Has Already Been Made
Washington Nationals:
Out: Rafael Soriano
In: Drew Storen
The Nationals are cruising along and about to lock up the National League East and get all five points for opportunities.
The transition process from old closer to new closer has been made official and all five possible points are given here.
So far, things are going good for Storen as he’s converted his first three chances. While his ERA is a shiny 1.29, I don’t think he’s been as dominant as this number indicates. He has an FIP of 2.79 but his strikeout total per 9 innings is a modest 7.71.
Still, I think he does have a decent chance of success as he does have experience in the closer role and even his underlying numbers indicate that he’s a solid pitcher. For criteria three, I’m going to give four out of five points.
Stability Score: 14/15
Boston Red Sox:
Out: Koji Uehara
In: Edward Mujica
The Red Sox are well out of contention at this point and get one out of five points.
The Red Sox have also already named Edward Mujica as their replacement and gets five out of five points for stability.
While Mujica does have experience in the closer role (37 saves for the Cardinals last year). I do have some concerns over his performance in the long term. His ERA and FIP numbers are both in the 3.75-4.00 range. Also, he doesn’t appear to be a good source of strikeouts as he’s only struck out 6.5 per 9 innings pitched this year. For ability, the Red Sox get two out of five points.
Stability Score: 8/15
Injury Quagmires
Oakland Athletics:
Temporary Closer: Eric O’Flaherty
Closer (Prior to Getting Injured): Sean Doolittle (SIA Profile)
The Oakland Athletics have struggled to win games over the last two weeks and are teetering on the brink of collapse. However, they do have one of the better starting rotations in the league and were one of the best teams in baseball for the majority of the season. They are bound to win some games sooner or later and get three out of five for opportunity.
For the time being it appears he has the job until Doolittle comes back from injury but with their season on the line and this being the Athletics, this could change at any time with little to no explanation. Oakland gets one out of five for job status.
While O’Flaherty has a 2.08 ERA that may indicate that he would be a good short-term option, he has a much-less desirable FIP (4.16) and low strikeout rate (6.75 per 9 innings). Looking at this data, blown saves such as the one he had Monday look less and less surprising and indicate that value from him is likely to be minimal at best. Oakland’s closing situation gets a one out of five in this section.
Stability Score: 5/15
San Diego Padres:
Temporary Closer: Kevin Quackenbush
Closer (Prior to Getting Injured): Joaquin Benoit (SIA Profile)
While the Padres are out of contention, their weak offense leads to a higher percentage of victories opening the door to save situations. The Padres get three out of five for this section.
While their incumbent, Benoit is currently sidelined at this point it appears that he is likely to return towards the end of the season indicating that Quackenbush is likely to be a short term solution. The Padres get two out of five for stability.
Quackenbush has made the most of his opportunities in 2014. His ERA/FIP (2.61/2.69) is relatively close indicating that he can be effective. It also doesn’t hurt that he has a history of striking out batters in both the minors and in his first season of major league action (9.68 K per 9 innings). In terms of ability to get the job done, the Padres closer situation gets four points out of five.
Stability Score: 9/15
Closer Most Likely to Get Demoted Next
Houston Astros:
Current Closer: Chad Qualls
Next In Line: Josh Fields
While the Astros are not as bad as last year, they are still far away from contention and get a one out of five for opportunities.
Qualls has a double whammy going on where he is day-to-day with a minor injury and he’s blown two out of his last four save opportunities. His grip on this job is shaky at best and he also gets one out of five in this section.
While Qualls has okay numbers this year (3.59 ERA/3.25 FIP), 7.55 K per 9 innings, he’s never going to be a long-term solution in the 9th inning. While Fields has struggled on the surface (4.45 ERA), he has pitched well enough below the surface (2.08 FIP, 11.52 K per 9) that he could be very successful if given this chance long term. Qualls gets a two out of five and Fields gets five out of five in capabilities to get the job done.
Stability Score: 3/15 (Qualls), 7/15 (Fields)
All numbers cited found on fangraphs.com
Player status information found on Yahoo! Fantasy
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