I don’t know what it is about being a part of the Western Conference no matter what sport you play. Of the three North American sports leagues that divide their teams geographically, most if not all of them have seen teams out west dominate recently, especially during the regular season. In the NBA, you regularly observe a scenario whereby two or three teams in the East make the playoffs with a losing record while a few Western teams with winning records get left out. Of the past eight winners of the NHL’s prestigious Stanley Cup, six of them have come from the West.
The same could be said about the 2014 edition of the Major League Soccer regular season. If the top three teams out West (Seattle, Los Angeles and Salt Lake) played in the Eastern Conference, all three would be ahead of current East front-runner DC United. Those three have definitely pulled away from the pack, especially the Sounders and Galaxy, and are as stone cold locks for the playoffs as you can get at this point. Another team, FC Dallas, looks to be in solid form and should be in barring a late season collapse. What should be interesting is the race for that fifth and final spot between Cascadia Cup rivals Portland and Vancouver.
As usual, I’ll follow my analysis of each team with a best-case and worst-case scenario for each playoff contender in one sentence.
Seattle Sounders (54 points, six games remaining, clinched playoff berth)
The Sounders have opened up the proverbial checkbook in the hopes of turning this franchise into a perennial title contender, and those efforts are finally beginning to pay off, no pun intended. The team’s two highest paid players, Clint Dempsey and Obafemi Martins have morphed into a ridiculously prolific goal-scoring tandem, combining for 25 goals. That total might be higher had Dempsey not missed eight games due to World Cup duty.
Seattle sports an impressive 7-5-2 record away from CenturyLink Field this season, but Saturday’s 4-1 drubbing at the hands of a playoff-hungry New York Red Bulls team could be cause for concern going into Wednesday’s road tussle with another motivated bunch in FC Dallas. A game in hand with the Galaxy, whom they’re currently tied on points with, should help the Sounders eventually solidify the Supporters’ Shield title, but any stumbles down the stretch opens the door for a suddenly scintillating Los Angeles side.
Best-case: It’s regular season best record or bust for a team in search of an American soccer treble which includes the US Open Cup (which they captured last Tuesday), Supporters’ Shield and MLS Cup.
Worst-case: The rip-roaring Galaxy are nipping at their heels and would like nothing else than to spoil the Sounders’ treble ambitions by claiming the Supporters’ Shield themselves.
Los Angeles Galaxy (54 points, five games remaining, clinched playoff berth)
With the love fest that is the Landon Donovan farewell tour in full swing at MLS stadiums across the nation, the Galaxy are certainly loving their form as of late. This team has also banded together and rallied around their teammate AJ DeLaGarza in the wake of his newborn son’s heartbreaking death that our own Jack Hummel wrote a wonderful piece about.
Since the 2014 season entered its second half, LA is undoubtedly the league’s hottest team, going 8-1-3 in that span. In fact, the only loss came at a venue where Donovan had ironically been masterful for the United States national team over his career as they dropped a 4-1 decision to Columbus in Crew Stadium on August 16. Everything seems to be coming together for this club at the right time, with youngster Gyasi Zardes turning into a star, midseason acquisition Alan Gordon scoring massively important situational goals, and Donovan and Robbie Keane just being their usual selves.
Keep in mind that these two Western Conference front-runners finish the season with a home-and-home against one another. It’s not a stretch to say that both matches could climb into “game of the year” territory if they’re both still tied on points going into the first clash on October 19.
Best-case: The Galaxy are clearly in much better form than Seattle right now and and if the trend continues, the Supporters’ Shield will be theirs and the chase for a league-best fifth MLS Cup title will be on solid ground.
Worst-case: The way this team is playing, it’s hard to imagine a negative scenario at this point, but third-placed Real Salt Lake are only five points behind and could move up if LA’s winning ways begin to wane.
Real Salt Lake (49 points, five games remaining)
If last Friday night’s Rocky Mountain Cup rivalry match with Colorado was any indication of the quick strike ability of this team, their playoff opponents had better beware. A 1-0 RSL deficit became a 4-1 halftime lead in the span of no more than 13 minutes and they would later go on to win 5-1. In diminutive 5’2″ Ecuadorian striker Joao Plata, Salt Lake possesses perhaps the league’s most underrated goal-scoring threat. Factor in Nick Rimando’s presence in the net and you have a team that has all the tools to make moves in the MLS Cup playoffs.
Though not as dominant as the Galaxy lately (who is?), RSL have to be pleased with the results they’ve been getting, especially after the recent pasting of the Rapids. They’re 6-2-2 over their last ten, erasing memories of a terrible run of form between May 24 and July 19, where they went 1-4-3 and scored a measly five goals. Other than having to play three of their final five games on the road, the schedule sets up favorably. Both Los Angeles and Seattle are noticeably absent from the closing slate of matches, and when you can face Chivas USA twice down the stretch you’re probably dancing around the training pitch.
Best-case: The relative ease of the schedule combined with a reversal of fortunes from either the Galaxy or Seattle (or both) is what RSL need to slide into the top two.
Worst-case: FC Dallas is a mere four points behind and if RSL throw points away they could vault themselves into that third position and force Real into the four-five game.
FC Dallas (45 points, five games remaining)
There have been a handful of MLS clubs whose 2014 campaigns could be adequately described as bipolar. In my Eastern Conference playoff analysis, I cited New England as a perfect example. Out west, FC Dallas’ season fits the bill. Between April 26 and May 31, this team would put together a string of horrid results, going 0-6-2 during that period. At the time, they were fifth in the Western Conference with 18 points, but due to the scheduling quirks associated with the World Cup break, had played three and in some cases four more games than teams only a few points ahead of or behind them in the standings.
The club would almost immediately follow that run of ineptitude with one of dominance. The summer months in Frisco would be characterized by winning and lots of it. Over the course of their next ten games, FC Dallas would proceed to go 7-0-3 and average an impressive 2.2 goals per game. What distinguishes this team from others from an attacking standpoint is their ability to rely on a quartet of goal scorers that includes Blas Pérez, Fabian Castillo, Michel and Tesho Akindele, none of whom have more than nine goals on the season.
Best-case: With Real Salt Lake only four points behind going into a massive home tie with Seattle on Wednesday, getting the full three points could be the key to making a legitimate run at third in the conference, especially with three of their final five at home.
Worst-case: Dallas has only managed one win in their last four after their run of ten unbeaten matches came to an end, with most of their remaining games coming against playoff contenders.
Portland Timbers (39 points, five games remaining)
Things did not start off very well in the Rose City. The Timbers began the year 1-3-7 which I don’t think fans were expecting considering the team was one round away from the MLS Cup in 2013. They made three significant midseason moves, acquiring Danny O’Rourke from Columbus and signing two designated players in late June, Fanendo Adi and Liam Ridgewell.
Adi has been a revelation since his arrival, finding the net eight times and also adding four assists. Ridgewell added a wealth of experience on the back line given the 11 years spent plying his trade in the English Premier League prior to his arrival in Portland. Add in the continued attacking prowess of Argentine tandem Diego Valeri and Maximiliano Urruti and you can say with cautious confidence that this club has righted the ship, at least partially.
Best-case: At this point in the season, if they can just hold off their Cascadia rival from north of the border and qualify for the playoffs at their expense, it sets up a potentially mouth-watering conference semifinal series with Seattle should Portland advance in what would most likely be a road knockout game with FC Dallas.
Worst-case: The margin for error is razor thin, and you can rest assured that the last thing the Timbers Army wants is to be on the outside looking in knowing they got passed by Vancouver as a result of throwing crucial points away.
Vancouver Whitecaps (37 points, five games remaining)
I find it amazing that Vancouver still clings onto postseason hopes considering they’ve won just four games in seventeen since the month of June began. Nevertheless, if they can upend Real Salt Lake at BC Place on Saturday and their hated Oregonian rival stumbles in Ontario against Toronto, the fifth spot in the West is theirs at least temporarily.
I’m not getting my hopes up. Goals have been hard to come by for this team all year. Midfielder Pedro Morales leads all scorers with eight, and of all the playoff contenders in both conferences, the Whitecaps goal total of 36 is second worst to only the Houston Dynamo. David Ousted’s goals against average of 1.34 is sixth-best in the league amongst goalkeepers who’ve played more than 20 games for their respective sides, but Vancouver’s goal differential of -3 is eighth-worst.
Best-case: Similar to Portland, the Whitecaps would love to solidify that final playoff spot, win the knockout round game and get a chance to pull off a massive upset of Seattle in the conference semis.
Worst-case: Vancouver have looked very ordinary as of late, and a continuation of the mediocre form they’ve exhibited will keep them out of the playoffs for the second consecutive year.
Colorado Rapids (31 points, five games remaining)
Let’s be honest: this is about as long of a shot as you can possibly fathom. The Rapids would probably need to get the full 15 points out of their final five matches to have any semblance of a chance to get the fifth and final spot. Based on their current form, it’s hard to see that happening. It’s hard to believe this team was actually in a four-way tie for the second-most points in the conference on July 29. However, what began as a 3-0 road defeat in Foxborough to New England on July 30 has slowly but surely escalated into a nine-match winless run that saw no signs of abating with the 5-1 blowout loss to Real Salt Lake on Friday.
Best-case: Barring a magnanimous collapse from either Portland or Vancouver, the Rapids will be staying home in November pondering what this club needs to do to improve in year two of the Mastroeni era come 2015.
Worst-case: If the negative trajectory this season is taking right now continues, the second-from-bottom San Jose Earthquakes might have a chance to leapfrog Colorado, making a lost season that much tougher to swallow.
I’m going to go out on less of a limb than I did when making my final predictions for the Eastern Conference. There I surmised that in the end the current five teams in would remain that way but there would be a few switches in the positions. In the West, I’m not even sure that’s going to happen. I know the Galaxy have looked good and Seattle just got squashed at Red Bull Arena, but the game in hand the Sounders have will prove crucial. It also helps that the season finale between the two will take place at what should be a rapturous CenturyLink in front of the Emerald City Supporters on October 25. Don’t miss that one!
John Bava’s Predicted Final Western Conference Standings
1. Seattle Sounders (69 pts)
2. Los Angeles Galaxy (64 pts)
3. Real Salt Lake (59 pts)
4. FC Dallas (51 pts)
5. Portland Timbers (48 pts)
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