The world of sports wagering is a tricky one. After posting a 3-1-1 (three wins, one loss and one tie) record on Twitter, I completely failed my followers in last weeks article going 2-4 against the spread, leaving me at an even 5-5-1. Some would expect that I would go into hiding and avoid my ‘Picks Against The Spread’ article, or at least change my train of thought on handicapping the games. Three words–not gonna happen.
My system is tried-and-true and I still believe in my analysis of the games. Through a 17 week season I expect many peaks and valleys on ‘Any Given Sunday’ and will try and bring some positive equity to my readers as the season progresses. Week six looks to be a very interesting week as there are a few big spreads to keep an eye on, and there seems to be a lot of money piling in on certain favorites. This is where the value picks will surface. Let’s roll the dice again in week six and get back in the winning ways.
NFL Week 5 Picks Against the Spread
1) ATLANTA FALCONS +4.5 (Atlanta at New York Giants)
My top pick last week was going against the Falcons, coming off that huge blowout win over Tampa Bay, and selecting the Minnesota Vikings in an upset win. After the overreaction to the Tampa game you will see a similar response by the betting public this week as many people look to fade the Falcons. Along with that, the over-rated New York Giants seem to be getting a lot of love after two impressive wins. Reality though, is that the Giants are not really that good.
Prior to week four this game was set as an even game in the look-ahead line in Las Vegas. There is no way a line should ever move that much unless a starting quarterback or a superstar is out due to injury, especially when that favored team has many weaknesses, like the Giants. I expect the Giants to have a let-down after last week, and may be looking forward to two key divisional games on the horizon against the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles. On top of that, the Giants are not a powerful favorite at home. In the previous 28 situations where they have been favored by more than a field goal they are a paltry 11-17 against-the-spread. Bottom line is that the Falcons are the better team and I think they win this outright. Take the 4.5 points to the bank in this free gift Vegas is giving us this weekend.
*Atlanta 27 NY Giants 24*
2) ST. LOUIS RAMS +7.5 (St. Louis at Philadelphia)
As listed above, there are some key divisional matchups coming in the NFC East, and the Eagles may be looking ahead past the lowly Rams. The Eagles are grossly overrated. Besides a couple late comebacks they could very well be 1-3, and their true colors were shown a bit last week in San Francisco. The Eagles are also 10-26 against-the-spread at home since 2010.
With close to 80% of public money piling in on Philly we have a prime opportunity to make the bookie pay big time on this matchup. The Rams have a stellar defense and will give Chip Kelly’s offense fits all day long. The sharps are pounding the Rams, and I expect this to be a close game.
*Philadelphia 23 St Louis 21*
3) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +6.5 (Pittsburgh at Jacksonville)
I absolutely love the Jaguars in this spot. The Steelers are a terrible road favorite historically, and will have a tough time getting stoked to play the Jags. We are getting great line value here. The Jags have a lot of issues, but I fully expect the team to play hard at home with Blake Bortles at the helm, and will want to take down the legendary Steelers for their fans.
This is another “Zig-Zag” game for me as over 80% of the foolish public is lining up at the casino to throw their money away and bet against Jacksonville. I will be one of the few people in the other lineup throwing my money on the Jags. The only difference is that Sunday night I will be licking my chops as I will be standing at the empty lineup cashing my ticket. Will you be bold enough to join me? I won’t go as far as to say Jacksonville wins this game outright, but if you sprinkle a few bucks on the moneyline, you may be quite happy with the lofty payout.
*Pittsburgh 24 Jacksonville 21*
4) BUFFALO BILLS +7.5 (Buffalo at Detroit)
This one isn’t a large play, but a Buffalo team that has a solid defense getting over a touchdown is too enticing to pass up. After a couple slip ups the Bills have fallen from grace with the betting public, after starting the 2014 season 2-0.
Detroit is struggling on offense with Calvin Johnson battling injury and this could be a lower scoring game. I will take the touchdown here. Kyle Orton has been listed as the starting QB, and the team will fight to keep this close.
*Detroit 20 Buffalo 17*
5) BALTIMORE RAVENS +3.5 (Baltimore at Indianapolis)
It may seem crazy to bet against Andrew Luck and the Indy offense the way they have been firing on all cylinders the past two weeks, but this is the right play. The Colts have a huge divisional matchup coming up next Thursday night against the Houston Texans. You could blindly bet against teams that have to face a divisional foe four days later and would win most of your bets. Thus, we are going to do just that, and also fade the dynamic scoring prowess the Colts have displayed the past couple weeks. I am calling for an upset here as Joe Flacco has been almost just as impressive, just without all the media attention.
*Baltimore 31 Indianapolis 30*
There is another major contrarian pick available, although I am not taking it this week. New England Patriots, who are normally a beloved public team, are now seen as team in disaray–which they are, but there is huge value on them at home as an underdog. I wont pick them, but all systems point to them to win this outright.
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