The ATP World Tour Finals is on the mind of many tennis fans, even though the tournament is still weeks away. Everyone seems to be figuring out which players are likely to steal the last of the eight spots at the prestigious year ending tournament. Since there seem to be enough people calculating the ranking points Milos Raonic must obtain at a 250 level tournament in Moscow to hold off David Ferrer and Andy Murray, here is a look at who is likely to make the cut in 2015 (far too early, admittedly).
The sure things: Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal
No one has been more consistent than Novak Djokovic over the last few seasons, and barring injury he is certain to finish 2015 in the top eight in the world. Djokovic will enter the season with higher goals, and his focus will be on capturing the elusive French Open title. Whether or not he completes the career grand slam, Djokovic should win at least one major and finish somewhere in the top three in the world.
Rafael Nadal will enter the 2015 season with more question marks than Djokovic, but he is a also a definite to make the ATP World Tour finals. Nadal generally accumulates enough points to qualify for the event from the clay season alone, so it will not matter if he struggles on other surfaces. He is also known for following his poor seasons with superb ones, and 2014 was definitely a poor year for Nadal. It will be tough for him to rebound to the degree he has done in the past, but expect Nadal to finish somewhere in the top four.
Highly likely to make it: Roger Federer, Kei Nishikori, Grigor Dimitrov, Milos Raonic
It’s not easy to say how long Roger Federer will be able to maintain such a high quality of play as he gets into his mid-thirties. However, based on his recent form, it’s hard to see him finishing outside of the top eight in 2015. It wouldn’t be surprising if his 2015 campaign contains a few surprising losses as he gets another year older; it wouldn’t be surprising if he wins a Masters tournament and makes some deep runs at Grand Slams. The ATP World Tour Finals should be a given, but because his age will catch up on him at some point I’m holding off on calling him a dead cert.
Kei Nishikori has enjoyed a remarkable 2014 season. While his run to the final of the US Open was his most noteworthy achievement, he has been extremely consistent all year long. He has won several tournaments, and won many matches people thought he had no business winning. There will always be some question as to whether he can stay healthy for a full season, and his body has let him down at various times throughout the year. However, Nishikori should be entering his prime, and likely has his sights set on winning a Grand Slam.
Grigor Dimitrov made great strides in 2014, and is likely to finish just outside of the top ten. He still throws in the occasional puzzling loss, but began to fulfil his potential by winning three tournaments and making the semi-final of Wimbledon. His ranking improves every year, and there is no reason to believe next year will be any different. Dimitrov should finish somewhere in the fifth-seventh range, and an appearance in a Grand Slam final wouldn’t be too surprising.
Milos Raonic has been extremely consistent all year, and made his share of deep runs in Masters tournaments and Grand Slams. He is still just 23, and only seems to be improving. He struggles against Federer, Djokovic and Nishikori, but consistently beats players he is supposed to beat. He probably needs to improve his backhand and movement before he can win a Grand Slam, but it’s hard to see him missing out on the 2015 ATP World Tour Finals.
Likely to make it: Andy Murray, Marin Cilic
Andy Murray has had a disappointing 2014 season by his standards, but he has shown signs of improvement as of late. His back surgery at the end of 2013 may have had a bigger affect on him than people realized, and also limited his off season training. Murray will expect more of himself in 2015, and will likely put himself through a grueling off season to better prepare him for next year. Whether he can get back into the top four remains to be seen, but he should fall somewhere within the top eight.
Marin Cilic has looked shaky since winning the US Open, but he should get back to his winning ways before long. He’s not the first player to struggle right after winning his first major, and he’s too talented not to turn it around. Consistency will be the key for Cilic in 2015, as a couple of big results here or there might not be enough to ensure a spot in the top eight. The field competing for these spots will be loaded, and many of his competitors are more solid week in and week out than he is. However, Cilic looked so dominant during his US Open run that it’s hard to leave him out of next year’s top eight. In his wins over Federer and Nishikori he played out of their league, and he should find that gear just enough times to get him one of the last few spots.
Just missing the cut: Tomas Berdych, David Ferrer, Stan Wawrinka, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
These four all had up and down years in 2014: Wawrinka won a grand slam and a Masters tournament, but was inconsistent throughout much of the year; Tsonga was dominant in winning the Toronto Masters, but hasn’t done anything since; Berdych and Ferrer were very good at times, but also suffered some losses that indicate they may be about to take a step back. Don’t expect anyone in this group to have a significant drop off in 2015, but they will likely all be on the outside looking in when it comes to the 2015 ATP World Tour Finals.
Wild Cards: Juan Martin Del Potro, Ernests Gulbis, David Goffin
If Del Potro can stay fit in 2015, he will certainly be a threat to finish in the top eight. He is at least a top five player when fully healthy, but it may take him some time to readjust to the tour after another extended period away with a wrist injury. Gulbis is enjoying a career-best year in 2014 and has the talent to compete with the top eight in the world. However, it remains to be seen if he can join them, based on his lack of consistency. Goffin may not be as big a name, but all he did during the second half of 2014 was win. He wasn’t always playing the toughest competition, but winning as much as he did (39 of his last 41 matches) is still incredibly impressive. His ranking is now in the top 30, and he should climb much higher in 2015.
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