It is never too early to start with Fantasy Baseball rankings for 2015 (even in October). Today, we conclude with Part 3 of the Fantasy Catcher Rankings.
Projection: .281/.329/.490 18 HR 73 RBI 62 R 2 SB = 43.4
Where others may see Rosario’s 2014 performance as a negative indicator, I see a very solid buy low candidate. Rosario was unlucky due to fluctuations in BABIP (.293 last year compared to .308 career total) & HR/FB rate (13.3% last year versus 18.8% career).
In addition, Rosario has the benefit of playing half his games at Coors Field (his career numbers at Home are much stronger than they are on the road) which always seems to be a positive for offense. The concerns with him are playing time (466 PA is his career high) and free swinging tendencies (4.8% Career BB Rate).
Based on the comparison data on baseball-reference even these things may not deter Rosario from being a strong fantasy option for several years. His two most similar players through age 25 (Gabby Hartnett and Carlton Fisk) are Hall of Famers. Rosario’s top 10 comparables list also includes two additional players (Javy Lopez & Lance Parrish) who ended up with more than 250 career HR.
Red Flags: Playing time, low walk rate
Projection: .281/.320/.429 16 HR 79 RBI 62 R = 44.4
Salvador Perez helped eliminate Oakland’s post-season aspirations with a game winning hit in the wild card game which then kick started their run to the World Series; can he lead your Fantasy team to glory in 2015? While his power numbers will likely stay steady, he should see a bounce back from the .260 AVG he had in 2014. In terms of long term value, I’m concerned regarding his strategy of swinging at pretty much everything which is backed up by a 3.9% career BB rate.
Red Flags: Impatient Hitter
3) Brian McCann
Projection: .284/.375/.480 25 HR 85 RBI 60 R 0 SB =48.3
McCann is another player where some people see him as declining in value but I see his lower numbers in 2014 as a result of bad luck. His BABIP (.231) was much lower than his career total (.283) and this does not appear to be a result of declining power. One positive indicator is that he has not forgotten how to hit for power. In addition to hitting 20+ HR, his Line Drive rate (LD%) 22.2% was actually higher than his 20.2% career total. It also never hurts that Yankee Stadium is very friendly to hitters.
Red Flags: Just reached wrong side of 30
Projection: .289/.366/.441 16 HR 82 RBI 69 R 0 SB = 49.4
Lucroy continued to mature as a hitter in 2014. One encouraging thing from him is he’s getting increasingly patient at the plate (he’s improved his BB% each year). His HR total going from 18 to 13 should not be an indictment on decreasing power as many of his well hit balls from last year ended up as doubles. His 2015 numbers should have some trade off. While I think his AVG (.301 in 2014) will drop a little bit, I also think he’ll also hit a few more homers as well.
Red Flags: Power Ceiling likely around 20 HR
1) Buster Posey
Projection: .319/.410/.498 23 HR 87 RBI 71 R 0 SB = 57.7
Posey has been far and away the best fantasy catcher and there is little reason to think that changes in 2015. I have him projected to hit for average (.319), in comparison the next highest projected AVG is 30 points behind (.289) and he also throws in 20+ HR power. The only concern is that his BB% went down (10.1% 2013 to 7.8% this year); hopefully this decreased patience is a harmless trend and nothing that will impact performance down the road.
Red Flags: Decreased BB%
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