If there’s one thing that’s for certain in the Major League Baseball playoffs, it’s that nothing is certain in the Major League Baseball playoffs. This postseason has yet to produce a single winner take-all game (other than the two Wild Card Games, of course), but the drama has been intense and exciting to watch. If you told me at the beginning of September that the final two teams standing would be the San Francisco Giants and the, Ned Yost led, Kansas City Royals, I would have laughed and I would have been wrong. I am a stat-head by nature and none of the analytics pointed to either of these teams advancing to the World Series, and yet, somehow, we’re here waiting for Tuesday and an unlikely World Series matchup to begin. The fact that the playoffs are completely unpredictable in baseball is what makes it such an exciting tournament, and I wouldn’t have it any other way.
World Series Preview: Giants vs Royals
When examining a match-up like this, and offering predictions, it really is nothing more than a guess based on some analysis of what has taken place in the last few weeks and pretty much throwing out the 162 game sample size from the regular season, but we’ll look at those numbers just to for sake of comparison. It’s obvious to any viewer, playoff baseball is a completely different animal than the regular season, because pitching staffs are managed with no thought about what might happen two or three games down the line. With all of that said, let’s get down to some analysis and figure out where this series might be won and lost, but will then probably go another direction entirely.
Offensively, neither of these teams had an outstanding regular season, but the more dangerous lineup definitely resided in San Francisco. Just digging a little into the regular season statistics, according to FanGraphs, the Giants had seven players with more than 300 plate appearances and all seven posted a wRC+ over 100 (100 is league average), but one of those was Angel Pagan who is injured and won’t factor into this series. Buster Posey posted a 144 wRC+, Michael Morse a 133, Hunter Pence a 123, Pablo Sandoval 111, Gregor Blanco 107 and Brandon Crawford a 102. Mix in midseason call up Joe Panik at 107 and the oft injured Brandon Belt at 116, and you have an entire lineup that performed better than league average. Put it all together and you have the 10th best wRC+ in baseball at 101.
On the other side of the diamond, the Royals only had three players post above average regular season offensive numbers in Alex Gordon at 122, Lorenzo Cain at 111 and Nori Aoki at 104. So, on the surface the Giants should have a distinct advantage offensively in this series, but that would ignore everything that has gone on in this postseason, where the Royals have seemed to find some power in a lineup that failed to hit 100 home runs as a team and posted a 94 wRC+ good enough for 18th best in the league.
In the postseason, the Royals have been able to show off their elite speed and have dominated late inning offensive matchups with incredible situational base running and timely hitting. These were things they did well during the regular season as well, but it largely went unnoticed because stealing bases and sacrifice bunting isn’t done nearly as much during the regular season in Major League Baseball. The Royals have also managed to hit eight home runs in eight postseason games to the Giants’ five homers in ten games. All in all, I like the Giants lineup a little bit better because they have the offensive star power in Posey, Pence and Sandoval, but you cannot ignore how well the Royals have managed to their strengths. And if the Royals can continue to get the timely hitting and take leads going into the last three innings then they will continue to win, because I believe their distinct advantage lies in their bullpen.
Starting pitching is often something that is overrated by fans and pundits alike, because for years the common dogma we’ve heard is that starting pitching wins championships, and yet, the Tigers, A’s and Dodgers will all be watching this series from their respective couches. If a playoff game is managed properly, you won’t see a manager go deep into a game with his starter, unless the innings have been stress free and they have a lead of more than one, two or three runs. The reason is the returns from a starting pitcher in the later innings when he is facing the same lineup for a third and fourth time, while also tiring, tend to diminish greatly. This would mean we will see the starters go six or seven innings and turning it over to the bullpen. When games are managed this way it narrows any gap in starting pitching advantages. So, I would say the starting pitching is a toss up because of how the two staffs will be used in this series, and the Royals may even have an advantage if the stage isn’t too big for young fireballer, Yordano Ventura, who will be starting game two. Where the difference in the pitching staffs can be found is in late inning relievers.
The bullpen is one area where I see a distinct advantage and it lies with the Kansas City Royals. If the Royals have a lead after the sixth inning the game is all but over. Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and Greg Holland have been absolutely lights out all season and that has continued into the postseason. In order for the Royals to realize this advantage, they must keep the game tied or have a lead when both teams turn to the bullpen. The Giants have a decent bullpen, but pitchers like Sergio Romo, Jeremy Affeldt, Javier Lopez and Santiago Casilla are not in the same league as the big three relievers on Kansas City. Outside of Casilla, the rest of the bullpen relies on pitch location and mixing speeds to get outs, and we have seen them get touched for some long balls in this postseason because they don’t have the elite “stuff” that the Royals’ relievers possess. Pitchers that sit in the upper 90s like the three Kansas City relievers allow them to get outs and miss bats even in distinct hitters counts, and I think this plays better in a short series than relying on deception and changing speeds.
Finally, defense will play a key role in this series and could be the reason we will be treated to close ball games throughout this series. Both the Giants and Royals play exceptional defense in ballparks with huge outfields that require good defense. The one soft spot lies in left field for the Giants. Travis Ishikawa has performed admirably since being forced into duty in left field for San Francsico, but we did see some of his limitations in game five of the NLCS. However, I don’t think it’s enough to give the Royals a distinct advantage.
In the end, I think we will be treated to some great games that will be low scoring and each game can hang on a big swing of the bat from a star like Buster Posey or Alex Gordon, or even an unexpected source like we’ve seen with Travis Ishikawa and Mike Moustakas. I just have this feeling that the Royals’ elite late inning relievers and the their ability to create runs will be too much even for the even year San Francisco Giants and we will be crowning the Royals champs in six games. But if this series holds true to form for the 2014 postseason, it’s obvious that the only thing we can expect is to truly expect nothing but great moments and hopefully a World Series for the ages.
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