In less than two months time, college football’s most prestigious individual trophy will once again be awarded, and another supremely gifted talent will join an ultra-exclusive fraternity that goes back to 1935. Already, a number of players have established themselves as bona fide candidates for the Heisman Trophy with their stellar play and the leadership they’ve exhibited on and off the field. Given that the season is at or around the halfway point for most teams, it’s only befitting to profile the athletes who’ve stood out from the crowd and emerged as frontrunners to take home the 25-pound cast bronze prize from New York in mid-December.
Story lines abound, as they customarily do when we’re talking about the favorites to win the Heisman Trophy. Will we see the first two-time recipient of the award since Ohio State running back Archie Griffin accomplished that feat back in 1974 and 1975? Can Notre Dame boast of its first Heisman Trophy winner since Tim Brown back in 1987, a year which also saw the Irish’s last national championship? Could we see a freshman get his name called for the third year in a row? All are plausible scenarios in a year that seems to have brought a different dose of intrigue and excitement with each passing week.
I’d be remiss if I didn’t disclaim the fact that I’m not David Letterman and this isn’t a late night talk show. Now that I’ve gotten that out of the way, here’s my first top ten list of Heisman trophy candidates for the year. Keep checking back every two weeks to see which players stock has gone up and which ones appear to be playing themselves out of the running. Without further ado…
1. Dak Prescott, quarterback, Mississippi State Bulldogs
It’s a pretty accurate statement to say that Mississippi State has never been in a position the likes of which they find themselves at this point in the 2014 college football season. Currently 6-0 and a unanimous number one in the AP & Coaches poll (also tops in our LWOS Week 8 rankings) for the first time in school history, much of this unprecedented success is attributable to the phenomenal quarterback play Prescott has demonstrated. Some of his raw data isn’t exactly going to wow you if you just look at it on paper. For example, he only averages 246.3 yards per game which ranks 40th in the nation.
In today’s analytics heavy sports world, it’s important to look under the hood to get the real story, and that’s where you see Prescott’s importance to the Bulldogs’ fortunes. He ranks fourth amongst all FBS quarterbacks in ESPN’s Total QBR metric, scoring 85.1 out of a possible 100. If you read about what this statistic attempts to measure, it essentially looks at a quarterback’s contribution to the offense from a situational standpoint. For example, if Prescott throws a 15-yard completion on third and 12 to give Mississippi State a first down, he’ll get more credit in Total QBR than he would from, say, a seven-yard throw on third and nine that forces the punting unit onto the field.
Heisman Trophy-worthy quarterbacks give their teams the best chance to win, not put up monster passing yardage numbers. Of course, Prescott can also beat teams with his feet. He averages 96 rushing yards per game and has scored a touchdown on the ground in every game except one, including three running scores in the Bulldogs 48-31 win over Texas A&M.
2. Marcus Mariota, quarterback, Oregon Ducks
Maybe you’ll disagree with me, but it seems that Oregon has fallen a bit beneath the radar since Arizona came into Autzen Stadium and upset the Ducks 31-24 on October 2. Or maybe it’s because I live on the East Coast and I’m suffering from that whole bias ailment they always refer to. Nevertheless, they’re quietly sitting there at sixth and seventh in the AP and coaches’ poll respectively with a highly efficient quarterback in Mariota who rarely beats himself. In seven games this season he has yet to throw a single interception and ranks tops in the nation in both passing efficiency (191.0) and Total QBR (89.2).
If the Ducks hadn’t fallen to the Wildcats a few weeks ago and were still undefeated, Mariota would be the top guy on this list. What makes his numbers even more mind blowing is the fact that the Oregon offensive line hasn’t exactly come through with flying colors in terms of giving him solid pass protection. The past two players to be awarded the Heisman Trophy ended the season with the highest Total QBR number in the nation, so in that sense you have to like the junior from Honolulu’s chances to appear in New York for the ceremony. In fact, he’ll be a virtual lock if the Ducks run the table and win the Pac-12 which will likely qualify them for the College Football Playoff.
3. Jameis Winston, quarterback, Florida State Seminoles
In the first half of Florida State’s wild 31-27 win over Notre Dame, it appeared as if the off-field distractions that have become an all too familiar part of Winston’s persona of late was beginning to take its toll. The offense looked out of sync at times and Winston’s numbers at halftime were mediocre at best: 8/15 for 92 yards with a touchdown and an interception. That all changed when the teams came onto the field for the second half where he was clearly the MVP of the game. His completion percentage in the final 30 minutes of the game was an absurd 93.75 percent and he completed all ten of his passes in the third quarter.
What sets Winston apart is his incredible accuracy passing the ball. While we’re still on the topic of completion percentage, his overall numbers in that category place him third in the nation. Though his name seems to be constantly in the news for all the wrong reasons when he’s not playing, you cannot doubt his drive to succeed and his leadership qualities when he’s in the heat of battle on the field.
4. J.T. Barrett, quarterback, Ohio State Buckeyes
If you want to see the streak of freshmen winning the Heisman trophy continue into its third year, you’re rooting for Buckeye quarterback J.T. Barrett to continue his run of exceptional play. Fans of the Scarlet and Gray were probably immensely worried about the prospect of a lost year when Braxton Miller re-injured his throwing shoulder in preseason camp which precipitated season-ending surgery. Those concerns became even more pronounced after Barrett’s abysmal three interception dud in a losing effort to Virginia Tech. Since then, it’s been smooth sailing and then some.
The Wichita Falls, TX native has been on a tear of epic proportions that began with Ohio State’s 66-0 shellacking of Kent State. If you include that resounding result and the subsequent three wins which have all come by an average margin of 38.75 points, Barrett’s stats read like this: 1,170 yards, 17 touchdowns, one interception and a 71.7 percent completion percentage. His Total QBR has progressively improved over the course of that four-game span and was highlighted by last week’s near-perfect 98.8 mark in the Buckeyes 56-17 rout of Rutgers. As a dual threat quarterback, he clearly had his best performance of the year against the Scarlet Knights, rushing for 107 yards and two touchdowns.
5. Everett Golson, quarterback, Notre Dame Fighting Irish
The Heisman Trophy is an MVP award of sorts, and when you consider that Notre Dame went 8-5 last year without Golson and have been 18-2 with him since 2012, it’s pretty clear his impact on the Irish’s Playoff chances can’t be underestimated. As I mentioned before when discussing Prescott, oftentimes your overall numbers are trumped big time by intangibles that don’t appear in the stat line.
Golson’s Heisman candidacy would have received a massive shot in the arm if the game ending touchdown he threw to wide receiver Corey Robinson in the dying moments of the Florida State game wasn’t nullified by a controversial offensive pass interference call. He already had a superb game-winning drive against Stanford where he threw the go-ahead touchdown pass on fourth down late in the game. If he would’ve been able to pull such a feat off twice in the same season, it would’ve only added to his legend. Even so, he’ll have plenty of chances to sway the voters with road games against Arizona State and Southern Cal along with a home meeting with Louisville.
Click here for part two which profiles the players ranked sixth through tenth
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