CFP Committee Top 25 Quick Reaction
Brittnee Taylor-Newman’s Take:
College football fans have been dancing nervous jigs while waiting for the almighty College Football Playoff Committee to unveil their rankings. This group is like the Great and Powerful Oz, hiding behind the curtain while powering all things important with their mysterious, secretive methods. Tonight, the “all things important” were revealed in the form of a Top-25 ranking on ESPN, and that ranking finally clued us in to some of the madness and methods behind the curtain. Plenty of surprises await college football fans as one-loss teams turn into two-and-three-loss teams, but here is what we now know about how the College Football Playoff Committee will be ranking teams.
It’s Okay If the Relationship Status is “It’s Complicated.”
The committee is allowed to take into consideration key factors which the BCS couldn’t, like injuries, for example. Oregon has one loss to Arizona, but had injuries to key offensive players–offensive lineman Jake Fisher was out with a leg injury. Oregon’s offense has been noticeably more dominant since his return, and his absence was felt in the Duck’s loss.
Quality Victories Mean Just as Much as Quality Losses.
The Evidence: Notre Dame. Although Notre Dame had a quality loss to Florida State–with some even contending that the Irish outplayed the Seminoles–their resume lacks enough quality wins at this point. The Irish barely topped Stanford 17-14, and Stanford didn’t appear on their list at all.
The Eye Test Will Not Be King.
Oh, Ole Miss versus Alabama. On the surface, Alabama looks like the stronger team, but their loss of a head-to-head competition against Ole Miss has placed them at #6, despite the fact that Alabama lost to a then-undefeated Ole Miss, and Ole Miss lost to a two-loss LSU. In this particular contest, the head-to-head competition was the determining factor.
The Rankings:
1) Mississippi State
2) Florida State
3) Auburn
4) Ole Miss
5) Oregon
6) Alabama
7) TCU
8) Michigan State
9) Kansas State
10) Notre Dame
What I’d Change:
Not a darn thing. The committee is specifically not allowed to consider the fact that Florida State hasn’t lost a game since October 2012. Florida State’s schedule was stronger than the pre-season rankings implied, but Mississippi State’s schedule has been stronger still. (Don’t forget, the committee is not allowed to use “previously published rankings” to gage the strength of opponents, to eliminate bias. Just wins and losses, without margin of victory.) Auburn’s only loss is to the team who the committee had just voted their very first #1. TCU has proven themselves offensively, and Kansas State will have the opportunity to move much higher if they secure wins against some of the tough teams they’re playing in November.
1) Mississippi State
2) Florida State
3) Auburn
4) Ole Miss
5) Oregon
6) Alabama
7) TCU
8) Michigan State
9) Kansas State
10) Notre Dame
Donald King’s Take:
Overall, I agree with Brittnee’s position on the committee’s work. I am fairly impressed with the first set of rankings, which I find fair and justifiable, given that this has never been done before, and given any reasonable interpretation of the previously-revealed criteria for Final Four selection. I love the focus on quality wins above quality losses, and it is clear that the committee is honoring head-to-head results at this point in the season, above the “eye test.” It seems inevitable that judgement will enter the process to a greater degree as the season progresses, but the initial ranking focuses fervently on strong early season results-to-date (Oregon over Michigan State, Mississippi State over Auburn, and Mississippi over Alabama, which might be the best win by any team in the nation so far this season).
What I would change:
While I think the committee’s efforts are laudable thus far, I can’t help but suggest my tweaks. So, sue me. My key non-considered criterion: what team would I like to play the least. That doesn’t change a lot, but it does change a little, particularly at the back end of the Top 10. Also, I value Ole Miss’ win over Alabama more than Auburn’s win over Kansas State, even though the latter was on the road.
1) Mississippi State
2) Florida State
3) Ole Miss
4) Auburn
5) Oregon
6) TCU
7) Alabama
8) Notre Dame
9) Michigan State
10) Georgia
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