Earlier this week, the College Football Playoff Committee released its initial rankings, which will be used come December to give us a final four. While each team ranked in the first poll has some chance to reach the first CFP, realistically the one-loss teams near the top have the best chance to play themselves in to one of the big three games this season.
While some have been eliminated from playoff contention and some teams have been eliminated from bowl contention altogether, there are teams hovering around .500 who have a few more chances to get that sixth win.
NC State and Syracuse Fighting For Their Bowl Lives
The North Carolina State Wolfpack (4-4, 0-4 ACC) have proven me right in every single game thus far this season. I only projected wins and losses in the preseason, not daring to predict a score. In all honesty, I would’ve been way off on many of these games. In particular, their road win against the South Florida Bulls was a blowout I didn’t see coming.
This was the last relevant win the Wolfpack had. The tune up against the Presbyterian Blue Hose was all well and good to get to that 4-0 mark on the season. Then the conference season began, and the trouble started.
Four games later and NC State has been outscored 157 to 73 in conference play. Forty-one of those 73 points came against Florida State. That game was the high point so far during this losing skid; the Wolfpack tested number one Florida State for three quarters in Raleigh. The Seminoles won the game, and handed NC State their first loss of the season, but hopes were high as the Wolfpack hung 41 on the defending national champs.
The low point of the losing streak (and season so far) was a 41-0 blowout at the hands of the Clemson Tigers.
Aside from Syracuse and Wake Forest, the Wolfpack have Georgia Tech and a resurgent North Carolina to close out the year. A two game skid to close out 2014 could be coming, and a 5-7 overall record.
Nothing is certain, and I only pegged Wake as a win in the preseason because the Demon Deacons have shown no signs of life (though they did beat NC State last season, keeping them winless in the ACC). If Wake manages another win against the Pack this year, Dave Doeren might have to wait until 2015 to get in the win column in conference.
The Wolfpack’s opponent this week, the Syracuse Orange, sit at 3-5 overall this season, and 1-3 in the ACC. The lone conference win was at Wake Forest (2-6). They’re in more of a hole than the Pack, with three wins needed to go bowling again this season. If the Orange get by NC State, they close the season at Pittsburgh and Boston College. Their final home game is against Coastal Division leader Duke, and I don’t see that one getting the Cuse closer to a bowl.
This is each team’s most crucial game up to this point. They are the most beatable opponent left on each other’s schedule. Sure, State hosts Wake in mid-November, but that is a game all Wolfpack fans expect to be their first conference win in two seasons. The hope for a post-season berth in Raleigh hinges on what they can do in Syracuse this week.
I thought their road test in Tampa would be a bit stiffer, but NC State ran the Bulls out of the building by halftime. If that NC State team shows up, they’re back above .500 and tasting a bowl game.
Syracuse has struggled against the top defenses in the ACC. Louisville and Clemson contained the Orange, each holding them to six points. The Wolfpack cannot make the same claim on the defensive side of the ball. They have surrendered at least 30 points in their ACC games this season, and Syracuse can get on the board against an average defense.
NC State’s defense has been average to below average all season, getting worse as ACC play began. Syracuse is favored by 3.5 as of right now, and the game may well be this tight if both offenses play their style. If NC State can’t contain Syracuse and falls behind early, they may not have the weapons to fight back.
The Wolfpack will likely continue to give up points in conference play, as each ACC team has had its way with them thus far. Their only hope is to get out of their offensive drought and keep up with the Orange.
Whichever team loses this critical game may join Wake Forest as the only two Atlantic Division teams to be at home during bowl season. It’s an elimination game for the loser since the chances for wins are dwindling.
If NC State can’t get to six wins, it will be a waste of good first half, and the Wolfpack will continue to dwell in the basement of the ACC. Syracuse is looking to get to a bowl for the third consecutive season, and a sixth loss might shatter that dream.
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Main Photo Credit: Liz Condo-USA TODAY Sports
