The Big 12 has three teams left fighting for a spot in college football’s inaugural playoff: TCU, Kansas State, and Baylor. After this weekend, that list will shrink to either two teams or only one. In what will be the marquee Big 12 game of the season to this point, and maybe the whole season, Kansas State takes their perfect Big 12 record on the road against TCU. Meanwhile, Baylor will look to climb in the rankings as they play at Oklahoma.
For TCU and Baylor, there is no room for error. A TCU loss to Kansas State would almost certainly knock them out of the conference championship race, as a two-loss Big 12 team without a conference championship is not getting into the playoff. Similarly, a second conference loss for Baylor would, at best, put them a game behind TCU and Kansas State. Any hopes of making the playoff would be out the window.
For Kansas State, there appears to still be some hope should they lose, though they would be relying on a few stars to align for them to be back in the picture. But most likely a second loss for Kansas State will squash any playoff hopes and make the early Auburn loss sting all the more.
An 11-1 Big 12 team has a very strong case for making the playoffs, but which team at 11-1 would have the strongest case? The answer is TCU. TCU’s lone loss was on the road against Baylor in a game in which the Horned Frogs looked like the better team for three quarters. TCU was ranked seventh in the initial CFP rankings and should move up to at least sixth this week, the highest of the ranked Big 12 teams. This shows that TCU is already the most highly-regarded Big 12 team, and that was before a tough road win at West Virginia.
TCU didn’t earn any big wins in the non-conference schedule, but their decisive win over Minnesota appears to be far better than anything Kansas State or Baylor had. The potential downfall for TCU is after this week’s Kansas State game, they have no strong opponents left. Combine that with the lack of a Big 12 Championship game, and the potential for TCU to get passed by another team with a statement-making game or two late in the season is very plausible.
Kansas State was ranked ninth in the initial CFP ranking, and they should be in seventh or eighth when this week’s version comes out. Kansas State’s lone loss came at the hands of Auburn in a game in which Kansas State failed to capitalize on opportunities numerous times. The Wildcats have been impressive since that loss though, outscoring opponents 205-85, which included a win in Norman that few road teams achieve.
But regardless if Kansas State continues to crush opponents, even good ones like TCU and Baylor, the Auburn loss is tough to get past. Auburn is currently ranked third in the rankings. More than likely, they won’t be ranked any higher at the end of the season, and they most likely won’t have a shot at playing in the SEC Championship game, as they already lost to Mississippi State. The committee would have to take Oregon over Kansas State. If Alabama beats Auburn, the committee has to take them over Kansas State.
Lastly, we have Baylor, who has seemed to have been forgotten about since the loss to West Virginia. Granted they did have a bye week and then a game against Kansas, which is essentially the same thing. The Bears were thirteenth in the rankings, which put them behind 10 other one-loss teams. That is not a good place to be and it shows what the committee thinks about Bryce Petty and company.
Baylor’s only credible win was the one over TCU and it is already November. Their non-conference schedule was a joke and they have already played three of the four worst teams in the conference. To date, they just don’t have much of a resume compared to the other top teams. They still have potential wins against Oklahoma and Kansas State left to boost the resume, but that is a long climb to get to the top four. Like Kansas State, they are going to need a lot of help in the form of other teams losing to have a chance at making the playoffs.
Comparing these three teams leaves TCU as the best bet in the Big 12 for getting selected into the playoffs. While this statement may be true, it leaves out one little piece of information that is oh-so-important: TCU is the only team in this group that doesn’t control their own destiny to win the Big 12. And not winning the Big 12 would be a dagger to their playoff chances. Ah, the fun that the college football playoff has brought us.
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