Some have said that the Week 13 slate is weak. I say balderdash. Okay, nobody says balderdash anymore, but I’ve always wanted to write that in something. The weekly picks have been mediocre lately (Richard Sherman voice), going 5-5 in each of the past three weeks. The season tally is still at a healthy .650 success rate, but we could use a good week. I feel good about this week’s selections, so let’s get to them.
| Last Week: | 5-5 | (.500) |
| Season: | 78- 42 | (.650) |
2014 Week 13 CFB Game Picks
Stanford @ California (Saturday, November 22nd, 4:00 p.m., FOXS1)
This is the 32nd anniversary of “The Play”, which scarred a young Stanford freshman (yours truly) for life. These teams are headed in opposite directions, both scrambling to achieve bowl eligibility for 2014. Who wants it more? Who has more talent, especially on defense? Stanford does, with the PAC-12’s best defense by a mile in several major categories (scoring defense, yards-per-game, and yards-per-play averages). The Cardinal’s problem is that offensive ineptitude cost the team wins against USC, Notre Dame, and Utah, despite laudable defensive efforts in each game. The cure? Cal’s worst-in-the-PAC-12 defense, which even Stanford should be able to score on. We’ll go with the team least likely to collapse defensively.
Pick: Stanford 31, California 21
Minnesota @ Nebraska (Saturday, November 22nd, 12:00 p.m., ESPN)
The Golden Gophers fought valiantly before going down to J.T. Barrett and the Buckeyes at home in Week 12. This week, they’ll be on the road to take on Ameer Abdullah and the Cornhuskers. The game feels bigger for Nebraska, and they are at home. Bo Pellini’s guys will get the win.
Pick: Nebraska 38, Minnesota 21
Penn State @ Illinois (Saturday, November 22nd, 12:00 p.m., ESPN2)
Penn State won last week, and will play in the postseason this year for the first time since grave unhappiness visited Happy Valley a few years ago. This is an obvious let down opportunity for a relieved Nittany Lion squad. That said, though, Illinois hasn’t beaten a quality opponent in recent memory, and might already be searching for Tim Beckman’s replacement.
Pick: Penn State 31, Illinois 21
Mississippi @ Arkansas (Saturday, November 22nd, 3:30 p.m., CBS)
Bret Bielema is finally off the SEC snide, and the Hogs have been tough at home all season. Bo Wallace and Ole Miss have a tough road to the SEC West title at this point, but a New Year’s Day bowl is a virtual lock if they win out. Expect motivation to trump determination in this contest.
Pick: Mississippi 24, Arkansas 13
Arizona @ Utah (Saturday, November 22nd, 3:30 p.m., ESPN)
In an unanticipated reversal, the PAC-12 South has proved to be far superior to the PAC-12 North in 2014. Oregon has long-since clinched the North division, but five teams are still alive in the South division title chase, including these two, who will meet at altitude on a chilly day in SLC. Arizona has been the more inconsistent team, and Rice-Eccles Stadium is notoriously unwelcoming to visitors. The Utes defense is a sack machine, so Anu Solomon figures to be running for his life all afternoon. I like the home team in this one.
Pick: Utah 20, Arizona 17
Louisville @ Notre Dame (Saturday, November 22nd, 3:30 p.m., NBC)
No way will Notre Dame lose to an unranked opponent at home, right? Oh wait, the Domers lost to an unranked opponent at home just last week, to Northwestern. The Irish are a proud bunch, though, and they figure to tough out a win against a good Cardinals team.
Pick: Notre Dame 31, Louisville 24
Miami @ Virginia (Saturday, November 22nd, 7:00 p.m., ESPN2)
Miami gave the reigning national champions all they wanted at home last weekend. Theoretically, the Canes stack up very well against UVa, but the Cavaliers have been a tougher-than-anticipated out all season long. I like the home team’s stout defense to do enough to slow down Miami this week, in the Week 13 Upset Special.
Pick: Virginia 21, Miami 14
Oklahoma State @ Baylor (Saturday, November 22nd, 7:300 p.m. FOX)
Baylor is on the outside of the CFP Final Four looking in at the moment, and looking up at a TCU team that they beat. Baylor’s resume is still weak, though, but they should be the best bet to represent the Big-XII in the CFP should they win out, because of that head-to-head win over the Horned Frogs. Winning out won’t be easy, but I don’t expect the Bears to blow this one at home against the Cowboys, who have disappointed this season.
Pick: Baylor 48, Oklahoma State 28
USC @ UCLA (Saturday, November 22nd, 8:00 p.m., ABC)
Whether you like either, neither, or both of these teams, it is hard not to appreciate the pageantry, history and tradition of this matchup between the Trojans and the Bruins. The long-standing convention of both teams wearing their home jerseys for this battle is one of the best things in all of college football. Makes for great viewing also, especially with today’s high-definition broadcast technology.
As for the game, UCLA holds the inside track to win the PAC-12 South, given Arizona State’s stumble in Corvalis last weekend. Don’t expect the Bruins to waste their opportunity, despite the rivalry-game nature of this matchup, nor the excellent first-team talent that the Men of Troy will bring to the Rose Bowl. This will be a war of attrition, and the deeper Bruins will prevail.
Pick: UCLA 31, USC 30
Western Carolina @ Alabama (Saturday, November 22nd, 4:00 p.m., SECN)
Man, I hate these late season cupcakes. We need more scheduling standardization. I mean, sheesh. No, I’m not actually picking this game, because we all know how it’s gonna go. And yes, Western Carolina knows too. Nice payday for them, though, I’m sure. I’ll stop short of calling for the SEC to go to nine conference games, at least until the B1G and ACC agree to do the same (the PAC-12 and Big XII already play nine). That said, these sisters-of-the-poor matchups this late in the season make me crazy. I know that I am not alone here. I’m hoping that Mike Slive’s successor will work on this.
Missouri @ Tennessee (Saturday, November 22nd, 7:30 p.m., ESPN)
This one looks easy. Gotta take the putative SEC East favorite in this one, right? As Coach Corso would say, “Not so fast, my friend.” Butch Jones’ crew plays hard week-in and week-out, and they are especially tough at home. A win gains the Vols hard-won bowl eligibility, too. Tennessee gets the win, and grateful Georgia Bulldog fans will join them in the celebration.
Pick: Tennessee 28, Missouri 17
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