I know, I know. He’s best big man since Olajuwon, and one of the top two, three players in the NBA. He’s the man who, despite only cracking the surface of his stratospheric potential, has been putting up better numbers this year than those of a young Duncan or O’Neal. He’s the future of the NBA–probably the future of all of sports, for that matter. I know.
But just forgive me if I don’t believe it yet.
Hold Your Horses, Anthony Davis is Good But Not Yet Elite
No doubt I’ll watch Davis tear up my Warriors next week during the Pelicans’ first national broadcast, a broadcast TNT rescheduled just so we could could see the young phenomenon that is Davis, and break out of my Nowitzki and Gasol-loving stupor to see Davis as the rest of the world does: the unquestioned top power forward in the game and a bona fide MVP candidate.
But until then, I still won’t believe it.
Davis has exploded this year, going from a 20 and 10 guy to a 26 and 11 guy. That’s good for the #2 scoring spot, the #6 rebounding position, and easily the top position in blocks. People point to his freakish athleticism, elite rim protection, and gaudy statistics as tangible proof for his greatness. His stat line last week against the Jazz speaks for itself: 43 points and 14 rebounds, a line worthy of a vintage Olajuwon or O’Neal.
There is no doubt that he is a great player. But elite superstar, top MVP candidate? Really, guys? It’s been twelve games.
I know, I know: it’s been twelve really good games–twelve historically good games, in fact. But, the Pelicans are only 7-5. And their roster is not as bad as people think: Tyreke Evans, Jrue Holliday, Omer Asik, Ryan Anderson, and Eric Gordon are a pretty good supporting cast. And Davis has been great. But even if he continues his historic rampage, will the Pelicans even be serious playoff contenders? Can you have a MVP on a team that isn’t even a playoff contender?
The problem is that the numbers don’t tell the whole story. Davis has been great, but he has not been a bona fide superstar. For context, look at Magic center Nik Vucevic, a rather poor man’s Anthony Davis. He has been on a similarly torrid start to the season, averaging 19.4 points and 12 rebounds. But are the Magic contending for the playoffs? Do the Magic have a bevy of other scorers keeping the ball from Vucevic? Is anyone saying that Nik Vucevic should be a starting All-Star this year? Does Vucevic have a lot of scoring moves, besides the baby hook? I love Vucevic, but you get my point.
Think about it this way: Dirk Nowitzki has been averaging 18.8 points and 5.5 rebounds a game this season, less than both Davis and Vucevic. Davis and Vucevic are both better rebounders than Nowitzki, and Davis is in a completely different league defensively. But Nowitzki is in a different stratosphere offensively. He scores from isolation (accounts for 13.4% of the Mavs’ offensive), and has a lethal combination of footwork, touch, pump fakes, and post moves. And most importantly, his creates the shots for his team at the end of games, and he makes them.
I watched Davis’ game last week against the Jazz, his remarkable 43 point outing, to see how he scored the basketball. And, by my count, only 5 of his 19 field goals were self-created. These self-created shots were more of a product of his athleticism (blowing by a hapless Enes Kanter or getting a step on Rudy Gobert) than of any superior skill, and the rest of his field goals were make up of open jumpers (4), transition lay-ups (4), open lay-ups/dunks fed to him by a teammate (4), and offensive rebounds (2).
Now Davis’ motor is fantastic, his athleticism off the charts; but he looks at times just like the older kid held back a year in middle school basketball–bigger, stronger, quicker, and a bit awkward. There will be games, like the one against the Jazz, where Davis gets every rebound, beats all the other big men down the floor, makes a bunch of open jumpers, and scores 43 points. But there will also be games like the one against the Grizzlies where Davis matches up against elite big men such as Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph, is largely kept off of the boards, and doesn’t get a bunch of easy transition dunks or open jumpers, the older kid finally playing against kids with his same size and athleticism.
So far, we have seen more of the Utah Davis. Buth when you largely don’t create your own shots, there will eventually more games like the Memphis game.
I know that Davis is a trendy MVP candidate who already has teams salivating for his raw talent and athleticism. I know that he is easily the best statistical player in the NBA, and a likely first-team All-Star. I know that many of you consider him the best player in the NBA.
Just forgive me if I don’t quite believe it yet.
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