The remaining men’s field at the 2015 Mutua Madrid Open is quite strong, as today is Mutua Madrid Open Quarterfinals day in the Spanish capital. After three rounds of exciting action, here is a look at the matches on Friday with predictions, and a bit on how we got here.
Previewing the 2015 Mutua Madrid Open Men’s Quarterfinals
(16)John Isner vs. (6)Tomas Berdych
Two big hitters, and specifically big servers, will go to war in this one, though the match being on clay should slow the pace down a bit. Berdych has won both their clay court meetings (at the French Open in 2010 and 2014), without dropping a set, and overall he has a 5-2 h2h edge, never having lost to Isner outside of US soil, where he plays his best tennis.
The American #1 comes off a pair of three set wins, he beat Thomaz Bellucci with a 6-1 breadstick third set, after dropping a second set tiebreak, and then battled past Nick Kyrgios 6-4 in the third. The Aussie coming off that huge upset of Roger Federer of course.
Berdych continues to simply blaze past all but the games elite, scoring a pair of routine wins over Richard Gasquet, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, neither of whom are pushovers on clay.
Given his excellent form, head to head advantage, and the fact he’s simply a better version of Isner in many departments, Berdych in 2 sets is a comfortable prediction to make.
(3)Rafael Nadal vs. (10)Grigor Dimitrov
Nadal may be having one of his weaker seasons in years, but he’s still looking like a solid favorite against the smooth ball striker Dimitrov. He’s 5-0 against the Bulgarian with a 4-1 record in clay court sets, and he’s dominated both of his opponents in Madrid on top of that, as the American Steve Johnson and Simone Bolelli fell by the wayside.
The only thing working in Dimitrov’s favor in this matchup is the fact he’s had a tougher road to reach the quarters, and thus dealt with far better opponents. Grisha defeated Donald Young in his first match, but then won thrilling three setters over Fabio Fognini (3-6 6-2 7-5) and Stan Wawrinka (7-6(5) 3-5 6-3). As an aside the struggles continue for Wawrinka, and the road should end here for Dimitrov barring a shock, as Nadal remains the king of clay, and in this case I don’t foresee trouble matchup or form wise. Nadal in 2 sets
(4)Kei Nishikori vs. (7)David Ferrer
The quarterfinal matchup between Japanese #1 Nishikori, and Spanish #2 Ferrer is the most likely match to produce a thriller in my estimation, of the four, and should feature some of the cleanest ball striking one could witness on a clay court in the modern game. Ferrer won a hard court match against Nishikori in the Acapulco final this year, but Nishikori had won five previous meetings before that, including in the semifinals of madrid last year, where Kei won a three set battle over the Spaniard.
Ferrer comes off a win in three sets over Fernando Verdasco, while Nishikori had a tough road that featured David Goffin, who he beat in three sets, and Roberto Bautista Agut, who he dispatched in straights. This match could go either way, but given the result last year, and the fact it’s reasonable to conclude Nishikori’s career arc has now eclipsed Ferrer, Nishikori in 3 sets is the reasonable choice. A Ferrer win would not come as a shock, and he’s still playing some of the best tennis of his career this year, he’s just not as likely to do it against top 5 players anymore.
(5)Milos Raonic vs. (2)Andy Murray
The lone match in which the higher ranked player is not the favorite, Milos Raonic will take on Andy Murray after dropping nary a set against Argentines Juan Monaco, and Leonardo Mayer, both of whom have clay court prowess.
Murray, who had to play an overnight match against Philipp Kohlschreiber, after just playing the German in Munich on Monday (he won both matches), comes off brushing past Spaniard Marcel Granollers, and given that match was so routine, and he’s one of the fittest players on tour, he still should have plenty left against Raonic. It also has to be mentioned on the issue of stamina, that Raonic is a big server who plays short points, not a player who wears his opponents down.
Milos for his part continues to post deceptively good results on clay and has to take heart in the fact he beat Murray in their only clay court meeting (Barcelona 2012). Raonic has struggled getting over the hump into that top 5 status, and winning this match would certainly help his case, that said, I’m going with experience and picking Murray in 3 sets, perhaps in a decisive third set tiebreak. The Scotsman is playing great tennis overall, and the fact he’s not the favorite is in large part due to a guessing game over the state of his physical condition, something I’d rarely, if ever, doubt when it comes to Murray.
