College football’s rivalry week, the final week of the regular season for most teams, features both pride and playoff implications as it’s the biggest Bedlam game in years in Stillwater between, one loss, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, Ohio State-Michigan has a renewed importance after both teams have posted strong seasons, the Sunshine Showdown fits that same bill as FSU travels to face SEC East champion Florida in Gainesville, and one loss Notre Dame can build on their playoff resume by capturing the Legends Trophy on the road against PAC-12 North champion Stanford.
Last but not least is another edition of the increasingly crucial Big 12 rivalry between TCU and Baylor, and an AAC game between Navy and Houston with New Year’s Six bowl game implications, both of which take place on Friday. Our experts John Bava, Steen Kirby, Yesh Ginsburg, and Mike Loveall are on hand to predict all the big games on Friday and Saturday.
#15 Navy at Houston (Friday 11/27/15 12:00 P.M. EST in Houston, TX)
Line: Navy by 4
John:
This game may end up determining the Group of Five representative in the New Year’s Six bowls. Navy comes into the game undefeated in conference play while Houston suffered their first AAC loss last week on the road against UConn. If the Cougars can defend home turf and upend the Middies they would represent the West Division in the conference title game.
Navy quarterback Keenan Reynolds comes into this game on the cusp of becoming the most prolific scorer in college football history. His 82 career touchdowns is just one behind Wisconsin running back Montee Ball for the all-time lead. In last week’s 44-21 win over Tulsa, Reynolds became the leading rusher in academy history with 4,195 career rushing yards.
Houston may end up having to deal with the increasing distraction that is the future of their current head coach Tom Herman. A report surfaced Tuesday indicating that Herman had agreed in principle to become South Carolina’s next head coach, a report he has since denied. If quarterback Greg Ward, Jr. can go for this game (he sat out last week’s game due to an ankle injury), that certainly helps UH’s cause. That said, I think Navy wins as Vegas predicts and continues their historic 2015 campaign with a victory.
Prediction: Navy 27, Houston 20
Steen:
The committee really punished Houston when they kicked them out of the top 25 with their first loss of the season against UConn last week. This is still a talented team with two power 5, and a ranked win. With that said, both of their QB’s, the dual threat Greg Ward Jr. and more traditional thrower Kyle Postma have been banged up and the Cougs may be distracted due to a coach who would like a more prestigious job and is about to get it. Home field advantage should help them, but Navy has scored five straight confident wins since losing their only game of the season to Notre Dame. Navy has a true field general in Keenan Reynolds, and their option attack, along with a defense that maximizes its talent, should give them the edge in this one. Houston’s ability to score should be kept in check by Navy controlling the ball via the run game, and I favor the Midshipman defense.
Prediction: Navy 42, Houston 35
Yesh:
Houston got caught looking ahead to this week and it bit them against UConn. Unfortunately for them, this Navy team is very good and Keenan Reynolds is running this option attack to perfection. The Navy defense bends but doesn’t break. If Houston can force a few turnovers they should be able to win, but I see Navy being disciplined enough to avoid that.
Prediction: Navy 28, Houston 20
Mike:
Navy is moving full steam ahead on their way to a New Year’s Six bowl berth. The Midshipmen convincingly dispatched a hopeful Memphis team three weeks ago, and with a win against Houston, in the AAC Championship game, and against Army (the week after the championship game) they might be able to crack the CFP top ten. Their only loss was to top-six Notre Dame. Houston, on the other hand, is trending the other way. A comeback and overtime win against Memphis was followed by a lackluster effort in a disappointing loss to Connecticut last week. And with all the talk about head coach Tom Herman possibly heading to South Carolina after this weekend, you’ve got to think the Cougars just don’t have their heads in this game. Navy will bludgeon Houston.
Prediction: Navy 41, Houston 27
#7 Baylor at #19 TCU (Friday 11/27/15 7:30 P.M. EST in Fort Worth, TX)
Line: TCU by 1.5
John:
Despite losing two of their last three, TCU has to feel good about the way they finished Saturday’s game in Norman against Oklahoma. They outscored the Sooners 16-0 in the fourth quarter and could’ve won the game had the two-point conversion they attempted late succeeded. Despite that, their quarterback situation is uncertain at best if Trevone Boykin is a no go on Friday. Foster Sawyer started against OU but was pulled in favor of Bram Kohlhausen after three interceptions.
Baylor has similar issues at quarterback heading into this game. Despite a domineering 45-35 win over Oklahoma State that crippled the Cowboys chances at making the CFP, Jarrett Stidham left the game in the first half and did not return. On Wednesday it was revealed that Stidham will miss the rest of the season with a broken ankle. 3rd stringer Chris Johnson will undoubtedly be the starter against TCU.
I’ve been critical of Baylor due to their putridly weak non-conference schedule but to be able to go into Stillwater and come out with a win is a mighty impressive accomplishment. Whether or not they can repeat such a feat in Fort Worth might come down to Boykin’s availability for the home team.
Prediction: TCU 41, Baylor 34
Steen:
New Baylor starting QB Chris Johnson enters this rivalry game on the road against TCU after going 5-10 with 2 TD’s and 1 INT in relief against Oklahoma State, a game Baylor won by 10 in Stillwater. That performance suggest Art Briles will have Johnson ready for this game against a banged up TCU defense that held Oklahoma to just seven second half points and kept the Horned Frogs in that game against all odds. On the other side of the equation, Trevone Boykin, if he can play, should be able to make this TCU offense go again, and if not Bram Kohlausen appears to have established himself as next man up and a gutsy competitor in his own right after he led his team back against the Sooners. I don’t buy the doom and gloom narrative for either of these great teams, but Baylor has more offensive talent, and a healthier defense, I also give the edge to Briles over Gary Patterson, and a Baylor win may be enough to give them a shot at slipping into the playoffs as the #4 team, while TCU already has two losses and is playing for pride. Weather could affect this game with rain expected.
Prediction: Baylor 38, TCU 31
Yesh:
Baylor is on a third-string quarterback. TCU is without their best receiver and their Heisman-worthy quarterback is banged up. Most importantly, though, the TCU defense has been decimated by injury, which should let Baylor pick them apart.
Prediction: Baylor 41, TCU 31
Mike:
In what we thought might be a CFP play-in game at the start of the season, Baylor and TCU meet this weekend in an effort for one team to salvage their season. TCU pushed current third-seed Oklahoma to the limit last weekend after being left for dead by the national media. Baylor ended Oklahoma State’s perfect season and stayed in the national conversation, albeit well outside of the CFP discussion. Both teams are playing with significant injuries and backups, but Baylor seems to be a little more resilient and has more to play for. Baylor goes on the road and wins the Baylor-TCU head-to-head matchup this time. If only it was 2014.
Prediction: Baylor 42, TCU 34
#8 Ohio State at #10 Michigan (Saturday 11/28/15 12:00 P.M. EST in Ann Arbor, MI)
Line: Ohio State by 1
John:
I don’t think anyone anticipated this being a top ten matchup when the season started. The Wolverines are clearly ahead of schedule under first-year head coach Jim Harbaugh. Now comes the first matchup between him and Urban Meyer in what the college football world is hoping becomes the reincarnation of the “ten-year war” between Woody Hayes and Bo Schembechler.
It will be interesting to see how focused Ohio State is after their Playoff hopes all but ended after getting upset at home by Michigan State last week. It wasn’t just the loss itself but its immediate aftermath that’s concerning. Namely, running back Ezekiel Elliott’s criticism of the coaching staff’s play-calling decisions gave the impression of a locker room in a bit of short-term turmoil.
If OSU wants to continue their good run of form in Ann Arbor, having won five of the last seven there, they have to put last week’s disappointing performance out of their minds. Both teams still entertain hopes of making the Big Ten title game, but they need to win and hope Penn State somehow upsets Michigan State.
One thing is certain. The Big House will be a cauldron of electricity with over 110,000 likely to be in attendance. Expect this game to be an old-school Big Ten slugfest with the battle at the line of scrimmage immensely crucial to who comes out on top.
Prediction: Ohio State 20, Michigan 17
Steen:
In a game with limited implications for the Big 10 championship (baring an MSU loss against Penn State), but massive implications for Big 10 recruiting, and the perception of these two legendary rivals, Michigan appears to be playing like a team at the right time, while Ohio State appears to be another suffering from the ailment of ego that has hurt previous Urban Meyer teams.
Jim Harbaugh, the best teaching coach in college football, has done an incredible job with a transfer QB and a limited roster to grab three ranked wins and suffer just a pair of top 15 losses where his team competed well into the fourth quarter. Harbaugh would send Michigan fans into a frenzy if he could upset Ohio State in these circumstances, and going forward this rivalry is only going to get hotter presuming both coaches are entrenched to stay where they are. Ohio State clearly has the talent edge, but I don’t trust this team not to be deflated, and the Wolverines will have the big house behind them in what could be a win that hardly anyone predicted in the preseason. Ohio State should continue to struggle to move the ball offensively, and that will be the difference.
Prediction: Michigan 24, Ohio State 21
Yesh:
This is personally a tough game to predict. The Buckeyes have more talent. The question is whether or not they can regroup and rally as a team. I have a feeling this team doesn’t want to finish their final season on two straight losses. They’ll be ready.
Prediction: Ohio State 35, Michigan 21
Mike:
What a difference a week makes. Ohio State was on a fateful path to their championship defense until upset by Michigan State last week. In the wake of that loss, it seems like the locker room imploded. And for Michigan, what a difference a year makes. Jim Harbaugh has injected his high-energy persona into a program that desperately needed it, and it has them in the CFP top ten. Ohio State is clearly the more talented team, and I think Meyer, for all his faults, is still a better Xs and Os coach. The big question here is whether Ohio State can bounce back mentally from the locker room destruction that occurred after the Sparty loss. I think playing on the road helps the Buckeyes focus and having lowered expectations after a loss helps them play loose, and those two things lead to a Buckeye win.
Prediction: Ohio State 24, Michigan 21
#13 Florida State at #12 Florida (Saturday 11/28/15 7:30 P.M. EST in Gainesville, FL)
Line: FSU by 2.5
John:
Much like Jim Harbaugh at Michigan, first-year Florida head coach Jim McElwain has had an instant impact. The Gators ran away with the SEC East this year, finishing with a 7-1 conference record and clinching a spot in the conference title game with weeks to spare.
Having said that, there’s a reason hated rival Florida State is favored on Saturday despite the game taking place in Gainesville. Florida’s last three outings have been unimpressive at best. They needed a late field goal to beat Vanderbilt 9-7, led South Carolina just 17-14 in the fourth quarter before pulling away, and needed overtime to beat Florida Atlantic.
The Noles, on the other hand, might be the most under-the-radar two-loss team in the nation. They found themselves tied with top-ranked Clemson midway through the fourth quarter before falling 23-13. And if not for a blocked field goal that Georgia Tech returned for a touchdown as time expired, both teams doing battle in “The Swamp” this weekend would be 10-1. If the Gators sixth-ranked run defense can figure out a way to slow down FSU running back Dalvin Cook, who’s third nationally in rushing yards per game, they may yet reach 11 wins for the first time since 2012. That’s easier said than done considering Cook will be the best player at the position they’ll have seen since LSU’s Leonard Fournette, who torched UF for 180 yards and two touchdowns in the Gators lone loss of the year.
Prediction: Florida State 24, Florida 20
Steen:
Both teams are led by their hard nosed defenses in this edition of the Sunshine Showdown, FSU hasn’t surrendered more than 24 this season and notably held #1 Clemson to just 23 a few weeks ago on the road. With next level talents like DB Jalen Ramsey and DT Nile-Lawrence Stample, joined by contributions from unheralded players like former walk-on DB Javien Elliot, Charles Kelly’s Seminole defense should be able to feast on a rudderless Gators offense that has been held under three touchdowns in four games this season. Treon Harris doesn’t seem to have what it takes to be a top quality QB and playmakers like breakout WR Antonio Callaway haven’t done enough to help their defense. This should be a close game, but FSU has improved on offense since switching to Sean Maguire at QB, as the pro style pocket passer has been better in the downfield passing game compared to Notre Dame transfer Everett Golson, who has seemingly concluded his short seven game Seminole career. Dalvin Cook has a case for Heisman, and could prove it here if he can bust another huge game and help his Noles on the road. Florida still has the SEC championship game to think about as well, while this can be the season highlight for FSU.
Prediction: Florida State 24, Florida 17
Yesh:
Florida has looked awful these past few weeks, but they do have the talent to hang with Florida State. Of course, Florida’s good win and their loss look a lot worse now than they did a month ago. Florida State hasn’t really been tested this year, but they have beaten their bad opponents a lot better than Florida has. This can go either way, but results say we have to pick the Seminoles.
Prediction: Florida State 27, Florida 21
Mike:
Florida seems to be the Rodney Dangerfield of the 2015 season. Sitting at 10-1 and still not getting any respect. After needing overtime to get by Florida Atlantic (2-9) last week, it’s easy to see why. This Gators team got two big wins (Tennessee and Ole Miss) out of the way before the Will Grier performance enhancing drugs suspension and just hasn’t been the same with Treon Harris under center. The Seminoles have some questions, as well, with two losses in the regular season for the first time in several years and lingering rumors about Jimbo Fisher and LSU. Look for Florida State to dink and dunk the Gator defense in order to put together a few solid scoring drives and the Seminole defense to pressure Harris into multiple mistakes.
Prediction: Florida State 24, Florida 10
#6 Notre Dame at #9 Stanford (Saturday 11/28/15 7:30 P.M. EST in Stanford, CA)
Line: Stanford by 3.5
John:
The Irish come into this showdown in Palo Alto having been involved in a closer than expected 19-16 win against Boston College at Fenway Park last week. Injuries have been a major challenge for ND all season and they continued to rear their ugly head against the Eagles. Running back CJ Prosise suffered a high ankle sprain during the game and is questionable against Stanford.
The Cardinal are hoping they can somehow sneak into the CFP with two losses. It likely will take convincing wins over both Notre Dame and whomever they play in the Pac-12 title game, combined with multiple teams losing ahead of them for it to be possible. They’ll need running back Christian McCaffery, who leads FBS with over 255 all-purpose yards per game, to continue his dominant play that suddenly has him as a legit Heisman contender.
Notre Dame’s “next man up” mentality which has defined their season may need to get them through this game as well. But if Stanford can take advantage of the mounting injuries and get some big plays out of McCaffery on offense and special teams, they may yet have an opportunity to upend the Irish Playoff ambitions while keeping their own slim hopes alive.
Prediction: Notre Dame 24, Stanford 23
Steen:
These two tradition rich programs have traditional styles of play, and this game will be all about players on both sides of the ball hitting each other in the mouth. Notre Dame is one of the stories of the season, surviving a string of injuries on both sides of the ball in key positions to post a 10-1 record up this point with four of their last six wins, since a two point road loss to #1 Clemson, being “quality” ones. The Irish struggled against Boston College in Boston last week, but the BC defense is top 5 in the nation and thus I don’t see a 19-16 win as too much of a cause for concern. Stanford has RB Christian McCaffrey doing it all along with a field general in QB Kevin Hogan, but they have been a streaky team this year, capable of playing very well, and awful in the same season. Notre Dame must have this win to finalize their playoff resume, while Stanford has the PAC-12 title game to think about next week. The Cardinal are capable of winning this, but I trust Notre Dame to somehow find a way to win yet again.
Prediction: Notre Dame 31, Stanford 28
Yesh:
This is not quite the Playoff quarterfinal it looked like it could have been a month ago, but it still has major implications. This is a matchup of teams with similar styles who, at their peaks, play pretty equally. This should be a great game. The team that makes the fewer mistakes wins.
Prediction: Stanford 28, Notre Dame 24
Mike:
This isn’t quite the CFP play-in game that some making it out to be; it’s much more important for the Irish than it is for the Cardinal in terms of the national landscape. That doesn’t mean Stanford won’t play hard, and the Irish are making the long trip out west. With the Cardinal having a tough, hard-nosed team and the Irish dealing with a myriad of injuries, I think the Cardinal win this by wearing down Notre Dame and taking advantage of their depth. Stanford keeps playoff chaos at bay, for at least another week.
Prediction: Stanford 27, Notre Dame 20.
#3 Oklahoma at #11 Oklahoma State (Saturday 11/28/15 8:00 P.M. EST in Stillwater, OK)
Line: Oklahoma by 7
John:
Oklahoma State’s chances of making the CFP likely ended with last weekend’s 45-35 loss to Baylor. Nevertheless, there still plenty at stake in this year’s “Bedlam” rivalry game against Oklahoma. The Cowboys are still alive for just their second Big 12 title in school history and have every opportunity to play spoiler against the Sooners, who were ranked third in the selection committee’s latest rankings.
OU quarterback Baker Mayfield’s status for this game remains uncertain after he suffered a concussion in the first half of the win over TCU. Initial reports were that he cleared concussion protocol early in the week and should be good to go. If he can, we’re in store for some high-powered quarterback play between him and Pokes signal caller Mason Rudolph. Both are ranked in the top 15 nationally in total offense.
After a disappointing season in 2014, Bob Stoops has the Sooner program back among college football’s elite. A win over their in-state rival would give them their first conference crown since 2012 and put them in line to play for their first national title since 2008, having last won it all in 2000.
Prediction: Oklahoma 34, Oklahoma State 24
Steen:
Another Big 12 game that could be affected by inclement weather, OU is looking to join Notre Dame “in the clubhouse” with their playoff resumes submitted, but they have to win this Bedlam game against a high flying Cowboys team to do. What works in the Sooners favor is an impressive six game win streak since a bad loss to Texas that includes consecutive ranked wins over Baylor and TCU. QB Baker Mayfield and company found it tough sledding against TCU in the second half though, and Baylor also exposed some of their flaws, especially on defense.
QB Mason Rudolph and company are playing for respect clad in orange on the other sideline. They also have lost just once, and it’s a “good” loss against a ranked Baylor team last week, however the Cowboys must win this and hope for help to reach the playoff themselves,they can also capture the Big 12 title with a win, as this game will decide it. The Cowboy offense should be able to do some serious damage, but the veteran leadership of Oklahoma, and Bob Stoops own experience should be able to steer them to a survival win in what could be a thriller.
Prediction: Oklahoma 38, Oklahoma State 35
Yesh:
Oklahoma has to feel pretty safe about a Playoff spot if they win Bedlam. Oklahoma State needs to win and hope for a bit of help from teams in front of them. Most importantly, though, the whole country will have eyes on this game. If Baker Mayfield is healthy, Oklahoma should be able to win this pretty easily. Oklahoma State has done a great job of winning tough games, but their talent level is not the same as Oklahoma’s this year.
Prediction: Oklahoma 45, Oklahoma State 31
Mike:
Bedlam. One of the better rivalry nicknames. But for Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, there’s much more riding on this game. First off, the winner of this game is co-conference champion at worst and outright conference champion with a TCU win against Baylor. For Oklahoma, a spot in the CFP is likely on the line. For Oklahoma State, they would need a considerable amount of help, but still have an outside shot. More importantly, they could ruin Oklahoma’s chances – and probably Baylor’s by extension – with a win against their intrastate rivals. Oklahoma had some hiccups in the second half against TCU last week, and will be dealing with some injuries. Oklahoma State is dealing with the disappointment of their first loss of the season. In the end, Oklahoma comes out more focused and executes a balanced game-plan better than the Pokes, but this has the makings to be a game of high drama on the low plains.
Prediction: Oklahoma 35, Oklahoma State 34
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