The Russell Athletic Bowl was one of the more hyped bowl games when the pairings were announced. After all, it was two teams known for explosive offenses and not known for real defense. We were looking forward to a track meet. And we are still expecting fireworks.
Before we actually talk about the game, though, we need to remind you of one thing. The Russell Athletic Bowl has the best Twitter account of any bowl. Seriously. Give it a follow at @RussellAthleticBowl. It’s hilarious. And informative. And provides some real fun both in preparation for the game and during the game itself. If you’re not following them, make sure you follow them in the lead-up to next year’s game.
Speaking of which, the Twitter account got in on the “let’s expect a lot of scoring” action early this year. For example, we saw tweets like this shortly after the game was announced:
Oh we got a new scoreboard. And we already pre-ordered the new-new one we’ll need on December 30. https://t.co/WwjESUKUwj
— RussellAthleticBowl (@RussellAthBowl) December 6, 2015
And this one:
…aaaaaaand the score is already 7-7. #RAB #Points
— RussellAthleticBowl (@RussellAthBowl) December 6, 2015
The point is, we are expecting lots of points in this game. But I think we have to hold our horses a little.
First of all, we should keep in mind that lots of bowl games with expected high scores don’t provide them. The defenses have had over two full weeks to properly prepare and scheme for this one game. Lots of option and spread offenses can get shut down because the opposing players train hard to know exactly what’s coming. This is less true with an offense like Baylor’s, who just relies on world-class speed and a smart spread to beat defenses down the field. We saw Michigan State give up a lot of touchdowns and a lot of big plays to Baylor last year. Still, Larry Fedora has had three weeks now to do everything humanly possible to figure out how to keep Baylor in check.
Also, keep in mind that North Carolina’s defense is one of the most physical units that Baylor has faced all year. The Tar Heel defense few under the radar this year (probably because they never quite played anyone good enough to get a real read on them), but the unit is fast, physical, and flies to the ball. This until is similar to or better than most of the Big XII defenses that held Baylor more-or-less in check in the final few games of the season.
Most importantly, though, Baylor is ravaged by injuries. They are down to their third-string quarterback. People might hesitate on using that point after what Cardale Jones did last year, but still. Most teams do not have a third-string quarterback capable of efficiently leading their offenses. Baylor is one injury away, like in the Texas game, from having to use a wide receiver at quarterback again.
Of course, the most significant loss for Baylor is that of Corey Coleman. The All-American receiver is a game-changing force, with his speed, strength, and elusiveness. Without him, and without either of their top two throwers getting the ball back, this normally-explosive Baylor offense will be really behind the 8-ball all game. If anyone can figure out how to make an offense potent with all of these losses, it’s Art Briles. But this might just be his toughest game yet as a coach.
The X-factor on Baylor’s offense will be KD Cannon. Cannon had a huge breakout game against Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl last year but really did not build on it well this season. Baylor will need him to become the star receiver and a true deep threat if they want to move the ball on offense. He is the one player with enough speed to replace Coleman. But he will need to have the best game of his career to fill those giant shoes.
It’s as cliche and redundant as saying that “the team that scores the most will win”, but that’s exactly what this game will hinge on. Baylor’s offense will have a very tough time. North Carolina’s offense will be able to put up a lot of points. Baylor will have to find a way to overcome their missing players and have their offense near its normal potency, otherwise this game could end up one-sided very quickly.
