UFC on Fox 18 goes down on Saturday, January 30 2016 at the Prudential Center in Newark, NJ, featuring top talent from the UFC’s heavyweight and light heavyweight divisions. Anthony Johnson and Ryan Bader headline the event, with the winner most likely earning a title shot following a victory. In the co-main event, storied veterans Josh Barnett and Ben Rothwell collide in what could bear title implications for whomever makes a statement with a bold finish.
As many media members have astutely pointed out, many (if not most) heavyweights reach their prime much later in life. If you look at the heavyweight roster, it’s largely comprised of men in their late 30’s. That certainly isn’t the case with lighter weight classes. It’s unclear whether or not that’s due to the weight cutting, or simply because big men take longer to develop the experience necessary to set up their powerful, fight ending shots. This fight is particularly interesting because both Ben Rothwell and Josh Barnett harken back to another time in MMA when singular styles prevailed, yet both are extraordinarily well-rounded. Rothwell has experienced somewhat of a career resurgence in recent years, while Barnett has been at the top of the game for a long, long time. It’s hard to believe that nearly fourteen years ago, he stopped Randy Couture to become the youngest heavyweight champion at UFC 36 (he was 24 years old). Rothwell, on the other hand, has never been closer to fighting for the belt, and pinning the “Warmaster’s” head on a spike would certainly put him right there in title contention. Nonetheless, it’s a particularly difficult fight to call, so let’s take a look at some of the factors that play into this fight.
“Big” Ben Rothwell is riding an impressive three-fight win streak, having TKO’d both Brandon Vera and Alistair Overeem before submitting Matt Mitrione with a gogo choke off a failed takedown attempt. Rothwell often enters the Octagon as an underdog, but he seems to always find a way to win, even when he looks outmatched on paper. Part of his success is due to his granite chin and inhuman ability to absorb punishment. In the Brendan Schaub fight, Rothwell was badly hurt and as he retreated against the cage, threw a counter left hook that landed clean and had Schaub fighting the invisible man. In his post-fight interview, we saw an emotional and invigorated Rothwell, and he’s looked outstanding ever since, going 4-1 in his past 5 fights (his lone loss being a submission loss to Gabriel Gonzaga).
For whatever reason, people always seem to count Rothwell out. He’s not the best striker, nor the best wrestler or grappler in the heavyweight division. Nor does he have a chiseled physique or cardio like a demon. Yet somehow, he keeps beating the odds – and with the kind of power “Big” Ben packs in his hands, it doesn’t take much to send his opponents home early. For these reasons, he’s a difficult guy to pick against. He’s one of the few fighters in the UFC whose intangibles make for a kind of wild card.
Barnett, on the other hand, has been at the top of the game for so long, we’ve almost forgotten to mention him as a contender. His lone loss as of late came to Travis Browne, a disappointing performance that he admittedly lacked motivation for during training camp. The loss didn’t sit well with him, and we saw a renewed focus – and physique – in his fight against Roy Nelson. Barnett looked to be in phenomenal shape, coming in lean and mean and putting on a furious pace, systematically dismantling the juggernaut “Big Country” over the course of five rounds. It was abundantly clear that Josh Barnett still has what it takes to be a top caliber fighter in the UFC.
For Josh Barnett, the keys to victory in this fight revolve more around what not to do rather than implementing a particular strategy. First and foremost, he needs to avoid “Big” Ben’s power, especially in the first two rounds. He will almost undoubtedly possess the cardio advantage, so he’s best off employing more of a stick-and-move approach early on, frustrating the Wisconsin native with a bevy of diverse striking attacks, changing levels and staying light on his feet. Rothwell likes to stalk his opponents, walking them down while cutting off the cage. Rothwell can afford to stay more flat-footed, due to his indestructible frame (remember when Brandon Vera landed about fifteen heavy kicks to Rothwell’s body and he looked completely unfazed?). Barnett does great work in the clinch, but he’ll have to stay very active because Rothwell can do incredible amounts of damage with very little space, reminiscent of Shane Carwin when he fought Frank Mir at UFC 111.
Although his base is catch wrestling, “Warmaster” has continued to evolve, showcasing dramatic improvements in his striking as evidenced in his last fight vs Roy Nelson. His leaner physique has bolstered his striking game by enabling him to most faster and maintain his furious pace deep into the later rounds of the fight. It’s pretty clear Barnett has more tools to win this fight, but with the kind of power and durability of Ben Rothwell, it’s a difficult fight to call. After all, it only takes one mistake in the heavyweight division to not only change the course of the fight, but to end it entirely.
Both men have crushing, finishing power as well as excellent grappling. While this is not a fight I’d bet money on, I’d give the edge to Barnett, just as the oddsmakers have done, putting him at a -140 favorite to win on Saturday.
Should Rothwell take out Barnett in exciting fashion, he would have a strong case for a title shot, following Stipe Miocic of course. He’s finished his past three fights against top-tier competition, and finishing Warmaster would be a noteworthy feather in his cap along with a compelling argument to fight for UFC gold.
What do you think folks, who do you have winning this one?
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