As it stands right now, Anthony Davis has almost a million future dollars riding on every game his New Orleans Pelicans have left. Even though the season has been a disappointment for Davis and New Orleans – they’re almost assured to be back in the lottery after making the playoffs last year – it’s Davis who perhaps has more riding on the rest of the regular season than any player or even any team in the NBA. While teams jostle for playoff positioning and the Warriors chase history, it’s Davis who has cold, hard cash on the line … and lots of it.
When he’s at his best, any rational basketball fan would name Davis as one of their best players in the NBA before they switched over to their other hand to use those digits to name players six through ten. This season, however, the basketball world has not seen peak-Davis, as was expected.
Last off-season, Davis signed what was reported as a five-year, $154 million contract extension that doesn’t start until the 2016-17 season. It was (expected) to be the richest contract in NBA history in terms of total value, because, according to the NBA Collective Bargaining Agreement, it would pay him 30% of the total salary cap. But, those numbers were based on contingencies; contingencies Davis was expected to have no trouble meeting. The Basketball Gods evidently had other plans, and those other plans are making it much more interesting.
The contract extension Davis signed contains what is known as the “Rose Rule.” An NBA player’s contract when he is drafted, and first extension after, should his team offer it, is fairly standardized. Which is to say: there’s a number of clauses and incentives, but for the most part, all players who sign these deals are given contracts that contain very similar language. The “Rose Rule” was established after its namesake, Derrick Rose, won NBA MVP before he was eligible for his first extension, and it allowed the Bulls to pay Rose a salary worthy of an MVP-caliber player instead of the run-of-the-mill extension given to players of lesser significance (although the “Rose Rule” probably now hits the ears of Chicago fans the way “Snow Game” hits Raider fans).
Going into this season, $23 million of Davis’s contract came (only) if he met one of the following criteria: 1) Won NBA MVP; 2) Named starter in the All-Star game (note: Davis was named an All-Star starter last season, but needed to do so twice to have that clause exercise the $23 million kicker), or; 3) Named to one of the three All-NBA teams. He’s not going to win MVP. He’s was not named an All-Star starter (though he did make the team as a reserve). He can still play his way onto an All-NBA team. That’s his saving grace at this point.
Davis has missed six of his team’s games this season, and his team has – along with Davis’s own – dealt with more injury issues than any other team this season. Davis hasn’t had a bad season, he’s averaging 23.7 points, 10.4 rebounds, 2.3 blocks, and 1.8 assists per game. All those numbers are more or less in line with his career averages thus far, although his efficiency numbers have taken a dip. While his field goal attempts per game are at a career high (18.1), his field goal percentage (49.9%) is at a career low. So, while it would be unfair to say he’s “regressing,” he hasn’t made the leap forward many thought was a foregone conclusion, mainly because the injury never really allowed his season to get off the ground, and also because his team has been so bad.
Last season, Davis ranked fourth in points per game, eighth in rebounds per game, first in blocks, and first in Player Efficiency Rating (PER). This year in those categories, Davis ranks eighth, ninth, fifth, and seventh, respectively.
The drop Davis shows in the PER stat is particularly worrisome. According to Basketball-Reference, PER is “A measure of per-minute production standardized such that the league average is fifteen.” If Davis can improve (i.e.: stay healthy), he can still avoid hitting the lowest mark in that category since his rookie year, when he rated a 21.7 PER, followed by 26.5 in his second campaign. His third year saw him eclipse 30, which is truly rarefied air (for comparison sake, Steph Curry currently putting up a 32.0 PER). So far this season, that number has dropped to 25.1.
To get named to one of the All-NBA teams, Davis has to prove he’s one of the fifteen best players in the league this season. More specifically, since the three All-NBA teams are based on two back-court and three front-court players each, Davis has to be voted as being one of the nine best front-court players in the NBA.
The media’s role in this cannot be ignored. The NBA media votes on the All-NBA teams. Thus, the NBA media controls Anthony Davis’s paycheck going forward. The NBA media could use this to make a stand against the modern-day athlete being paid an exorbitant amount of money to play a game. The media could use their power in this situation to hit the reset button on the biggest contract in NBA history. Like the MLB media’s stance on allowing (or not allowing) suspected PED users in the Hall of Fame, this is the NBA media’s chance to take a collective moral stand against the players they are paid to cover. It would be totally unfair for media members to vote against Davis just to dig into his wallet, but it would be equally inexcusable to cast a sympathy vote for Davis. Although one would be pretty cold-hearted not to sympathetic of Davis if he missed out on his $23 million because of a single vote or two.
In a season that will be remembered for its historical significance, from the Warriors’ quest to continue their dynasty and break the Bulls’ win record, to Kobe’s swan song, to what should be a fantastic playoffs, it’s the best player on a team that’s not going to sniff the playoffs that has the most on the line the remainder of this season. In one sense, earning the $23 million on his next contract is completely up to him. On the other hand, the NBA media has veto power. Until the playoffs start, while you’re saying goodbye to Kobe and oohing and ahhing over whatever Steph Curry’s doing, be sure to keep an eye on Anthony Davis. While his team won’t get to play past the regular season, the Pelicans’ Anthony Davis has the most to play for.
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