If you didn’t catch NFL Free Agency (March Madness) Part 1, here it is. Let the madness ensue…
The NFL’s March Madness Continues (Part 2)
New York Giants re-sign Jason Pierre-Paul… Grade: D
Remember when JPP dominated the conversations for best up-and-coming defensive stars (sophomore year: 16.5 sacks). Remember when he and the Giants defensive line controlled the Patriots offense in Super Bowl XLVI. The same Pats that scored 32.1 points/game that year, but winded up with only 17 in the Super Bowl (276 passing yards, 83 rushing, and a measly 23 minutes of possession).
No one knows what to make of JPP now. A year ago he sacked the quarterback 12.5 times. The year before, two. The year before that 6.5. He might be an athletic freak. He might be a four finger freak. No one really knows.
We know he’s only 27. We know he underwent back surgery in 2013, the same season he recorded only two sacks. We know he turned down a multi-year offer from the Cardinals to re-up with New York for a risky one-year/$10.5 million deal, which means he’s betting on himself. We know he was involved in a tragic 2015 fireworks accident that left him with a deformed right hand, producing only one sack in eight games that same year. We also know there’s a picture of his face cropped over Chubbs from Happy Gilmore, and he played with a club over that same hand last year, which hasn’t really fared well for any defensive end including JJ Watt.
Wild theory: looking at his hand, I think he took all the money he could knowing he couldn’t produce and wouldn’t live up to that Cardinals deal. Eventually, the Cards would figure his 1 sack lackluster wasn’t just a fluke, and he’d either be cut or reduced to a extremely cheap price.
I hope that I’m wrong though. For his sake and football’s.
Houston Texans sign Brock Osweiler… Grade: B
Maybe Denver’s offer wasn’t enough. Maybe he didn’t want to live in Peyton Manning’s shadow, which is what I think. Maybe that sting from being benched for Peyton in the San Diego game still lingers. Maybe he just wanted to be included in those Papa John Commercials with Peyton. Maybe, maybe, maybe.
No one knows for sure except Osweiler. But what we do know is that he beat an undefeated Patriots squad, and he’ll be paid $72 million over the next four years. Is he worth $18 million a year? Heck no! That’s more than Andy Dalton, Carson Palmer, AND Andrew Luck. In a world that makes sense, he’s earning somewhere between $6 million (near rookie/unproven contract level) and $10 million a year (competent starter salary).
But if it miraculously works out for Houston, they’ll adequately be paying a 25-year-old Brock. Andy Dalton, Tony Romo, and Carson Palmer earn in the $16-18 million a year range. And if it doesn’t, they’re only on the hook for a semi-short four years.
Baltimore Ravens land Eric Weddle… Grade: B+
Baltimore Ravens add Mike Wallace… Grade: B
Don’t you hate when great players slip to great teams especially the smart ones? For example, we all knew Randy Moss was fantastic, we just forgot how fantastic he was. Pair him with the brilliant Bill Belichick and a historic quarterback, Brady, and soon records were exploding like the Patriots had the League on Madden’s Rookie Difficulty Setting.
Enter the Ravens, a smart franchise and one year removed from almost making the Super Bowl, magically carving out enough space for Weddle, one of the game’s best safeties. So what if he’s 31! Ed Reed didn’t show signs of slowing down until his final Ravens season at age 33. And neither has Weddle, who just turned 31 in January. Guess what Baltimore has him locked up to? If you guessed 33 you wouldn’t be far off, 34. And for just $26 million ($6.5 million/year… the 11th highest paid safety), I just might make Baltimore my early dark horse Super Bowl pick. Especially after seeing this pic, and Weddle’s (aka @weddlesbeard) last words attached… “Can’t wait to get to work with my teammates.”
And for Ravens fans, aren’t you salivating at the mouth knowing Flacco’s back and Ozzie Newsome gifted him a shiny new toy to play with (Mike Wallace). Here look at this (Wallace’s numbers):
Pittsburgh Averages (2010-2012) – 1,095 yards, 8.6 touchdowns, 15.6 games played
Miami (2014) – 862 yards, ten touchdowns, 16 games played
Isn’t that what you want from your number two receiver at the very least!? Around 900 yards, nine touchdowns, and durability year-in and year-out. And for how much? $5.7 million (the 24th highest paid receiver) over the next two years. That’s roughly half of what number one receivers should be paid ($10 million starting off). Ladies and gentlemen, Ozzie Awesome!
Cleveland Browns sign Robert Griffin III… Grade: B
Remember when Griffin vs Luck was a legitimate argument? Both soared during their rookie years while leading their teams to the playoffs. And then Mike Shanahan foolishly went all-in with his promising yet already injured rookie quarterback, acting as if that was the best chance the Skins would win a Super Bowl. Four years later, a torn ACL, a permanent benching, this clip, a puzzling goodbye locker note, and now Griffin is marooned in the only place that’ll have him. Almost like seeing a down on her luck Charlize Theron hookup with Patton Oswalt in Young Adult.
Can Griffin come back from this: yes. We’ve seen quarterbacks like Carson Palmer and Kurt Warner resurrect their careers on different teams. You just never know. It’s a roller coaster position. One minute you’re a viable starter, the next you’re sitting on the bench watching in disbelief as Brandon Weeden gives a “spark” to the offense.
And for around $7 million a year over the next two, you’re paying Griffin like a promising rookie (roughly a million more than Winston and Mariota), and a middle tier starter (less than $10 million). It’s a good risk. If he bombs, you’re only handcuffed to him for one more year. If he’s solid, fantastic! You have a good starting quarterback at a supremely cheap price for another year with plenty of future/trade options. Just know going in, he’s lost two of his best linemen (Alex Mack and Mitchell Schwartz) as well as top wideout Travis Benjamin.
Tennessee Titans nab DeMarco Murray and Eagles fourth round draft pick… Grade: B
Philadelphia Eagles get Titans fourth round draft pick… Grade: D
Quick hit: four-year, $25 million contract, $12.5 million guaranteed (nine in 2016 & 3.5 in 2017), then can release him in 2018 with only a $3.25 million cap hit by the time he’s age 30, you know when running backs wheel start to fall off.
Definite win for the Titans. You always want to be able to cut ties with running backs once they hit “that” wall. From there it’s finding gems in the draft (DeMarco Murray in the third round), or overlooked steals in free agency (Dion Lewis).
Also, let’s go ahead and consider Murray’s last season like it never happened. Because there was almost no way he was gaining much behind that line. Just ask LeSean McCoy (2014: 4.2 avg) AND Ryan Matthews, who averaged a measly 4.25 yards/carry this year after you adjust for a deceiving 16.2 yard carry average in one game.
One last thing, can we put to rest the idea of Murray being great only because of Dallas’ offensive line. When was the last time a mediocre back rushed for Murray’s 1,845 yards or at the very least 1,400 in a season? Here’s the 1,400 club for the last half decade:
2015: Adrian Peterson, Doug Martin
2014: DeMarco Murray
2013: LeSean McCoy
2012: Adrian Peterson, Alfred Morris, Marshawn Lynch, Jamaal Charles, Doug Martin, Arian Foster
2011: Maurice Jones-Drew
Maybe if you’re mediocre you might luck into 1,300 yards, but you’re certainly not breaking 1,400 (2012 C.J. Spiller 1,244 yards & 2013 Ryan Matthews 1,244). Speed alone can’t get you there. You have to have a combination of cat-like reflexes, a bag full of moves (spins, cutbacks, stiff arms), durability, AND most importantly top-notch peripheral vision where you can spot empty holes on the backside to exploit while sprinting full speed to the designed direction. Think Terrell Davis cutbacks circa 1998.
Just look at Joseph Randle, who behind a great Dallas offensive line, struggled so horribly he was eventually benched for an average Darren McFadden and cut at season’s end. You either have it or you don’t. And Murray most definitely has it.
Add in a superb signing of Ben Jones and the options in the draft to bolster the offensive line, and you can’t come away thinking this is DeMarco’s bounce back season.
As for the Eagles, they basically just gave away a top seven running back for nothing.
New England Patriots trade for Martellus Bennett and get a sixth round draft pick… Grade: B
Chicago Bears receive sixth round draft pick… Grade: D
Speaking of smart teams: how quickly did the Bills, Jets, and Dolphins crap their pants after hearing of the Martellus Bennet trade[1]? We know Rex’s reaction to it (defending Gronk and Bennett):
“I have no idea. I just think it’s unusual to have two guys that are like 6 foot 7 and can run, catch, block. So, yeah, it’s going to be a major challenge. There’s no doubt about that. It’s scary when you look at them. Those are two huge guys. How we’re going to defend them, I don’t know.”
So that’s the “normal” reaction to it. Real reaction to it… “Aw *@#+, how the heck are we supposed to beat them now!?”
Here’s the Patriots offense in 2011, with one of the best tight end duos in history (Gronk and Hernandez) at their apex:
32.1 points/game, 428 yards/game, 399 first downs[2] , 63.7% fourth down conversion.
*finished the season 13-3, 12.8 point margin of victory, barely lost in the Super Bowl (21-17), and had a godly amount of “DAMN THEY’RE GOOD!” expressions from opposing teams.
*Effect on Brady – 65.6% completion percentage, 5,235 yards (CAREER HIGH), 8.57 yards/pass (CAREER HIGH), 39 touchdowns, 105.6 quarterback rating.
So yeah, Rex’s reaction is right. If everything falls into place like it should, especially after the Jonathan Cooper pickup, because it should especially when New England has a coach that possesses a skill for getting the best out of his players and a quarterback who brings out the best in his teammates, watch out. How you’re going to defend them, I have no idea.
[1] $5.2 million for a number one tight end for a one year experiment, not bad (a little above half of what the number one tight end Jimmy Graham makes) Even better would have been a team option for 2017
[2] anything in 400s in historic, 390s great, below 389 -370 really good, mediocre is 310s.
