The main question coming out of the 2016 NFL Draft centers squarely around the fourth overall selection by the Dallas Cowboys, running back Ezekiel Elliot of Ohio State. The majority of fantasy experts are drooling over the possibly of a young, star running back not only playing behind a fantastic offensive line, but with an All Pro quarterback in Tony Romo. Early projections have Elliot going in round two in standard scoring drafts, and even higher in PPR formats. While the majority of drafters are boarding the “Zeke Train,” I remain skeptical. I needed to get some hard data on past years to project whether or not Elliot’s rookie year in 2016 would be top two round worthy. Certainly, I see the potential of a solid NFL running back for the length of his career, but with September just four months away I mainly care about this upcoming season only (unless, of course, you play in a dynasty league). I wanted to take a closer look at specifically how first round running backs have performed over the last ten years. Is Ezekiel Elliott worth a pick in the first two rounds of your fantasy draft? The results were very thought provoking:
2006 NFL Draft
# of running backs taken in Round 1: 4
| Pick | Name | Team | GP | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rec | Rec Yds | Total TD |
| #2 | Reggie Bush | NO | 16 | 155 | 565 | 88 | 742 | 8 |
| #21 | Laurence Maroney | NE | 14 | 175 | 745 | 22 | 194 | 7 |
| #27 | D’Angelo Williams | Car | 13 | 121 | 501 | 33 | 313 | 2 |
| #30 | Joseph Addai | Indy | 16 | 226 | 1081 | 40 | 325 | 8 |
Results: >Mixed results here. Bush had to share time with Deuce McAllister, and had a great season with 1300+ yards and 8 TD’s. Elliott isn’t as fast (4.46 40 yd dash) as Bush was (4.38), but he’s taller and weights twenty pounds more. He’s not getting 700+ receiving yards by a long shot, but he should get more than 565 rushing yards. But the important question for Elliott is “Would I be happy if I took him in Round 2 and I got this production?” The answer here is “no” for Maroney and Williams, the middle two running backs selected. Certainly, 1400+ yards and 8TD’s like Addai produced would be very acceptable. But to be fair, that was with the great Peyton Manning.
2007 NFL Draft
# of running backs taken in Round 1: 2
| Pick | Name | Team | GP | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rec | Re Yds | Total TD |
| #7 | Adrian Peterson | Minn | 14 | 238 | 1341 | 19 | 268 | 13 |
| #12 | Marshawn Lynch | Buff | 15 | 280 | 1115 | 18 | 184 | 7 |
Results: Elliott defenders will look at this year as strong support for their argument. Two first round selections, two studs. The only counter here is that both players were handed the job right away. I am not sure if Elliott’s pass blocking skills (strong but untested against NFL pass rushers) will get him on the field that much early, and McFadden/Morris will steal carries. Certainly however, this data supports a Round 2 selection.
2008 NFL Draft
# of running backs taken in Round 1: 4
| Pick | Name | Team | GP | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rec | Re Yds | Total TD |
| #4 | Darren McFadden | Oak | 13 | 113 | 499 | 29 | 285 | 4 |
| #13 | Jonathon Stewart | Car | 16 | 184 | 836 | 8 | 47 | 10 |
| #22 | Felix Jones | Ark | 6 | 30 | 266 | 2 | 10 | 3 |
| #23 | Rashard Mendenhall | Pitt | 4 | 19 | 58 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| #24 | Chris Johnson | Ten | 15 | 251 | 1228 | 43 | 260 | 10 |
Results:. This is a very interesting comparison year. McFadden was taken fourth overall, just like Elliot. He had competition, but certainly I don’t think Justin Fargas and Michael Bush were viewed as elite running backs. The Raiders mixed him in slowly, and he saw action in 13 games. Stewart had an incredible year given he entered the NFL off of toe surgery and had to play second fiddle to D’Angelo who had a monster year (1515 yards, 18 TD’s). The Panthers had 30 rushing TD’s that year, just insane. Jones and Mendenhall got hurt, and Chris Johnson had a tremendous year, and got 251 carries in a run heavy offense (LenDale White had 200 carries and 15 TDs). Certainly, Johnson or even Stewart production for Elliott would justify the early pick. But ask yourself: who has an offense that runs this much anymore? And will Elliott suffer a LenDale White-esque TD vulture?
2009 NFL Draft
# of running backs taken in Round 1: 3
| Pick | Name | Team | GP | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rec | Re Yds | Total TD |
| #9 | Knowshon Moreno | Den | 16 | 247 | 947 | 28 | 213 | 9 |
| #27 | Donald Brown | Indy | 11 | 78 | 281 | 11 | 169 | 3 |
| #31 | Beanie Wells | AZ | 16 | 176 | 793 | 12 | 143 | 7 |
Results:. Moreno won the job in training camp, only having to compete with Correll Buckhalter. He was a three down back and had a very solid year. Donald Brown supplemented Addai. Wells shared with Tim Hightower, in what could be a very accurate comparison. Elliott will have more receptions, but I really think a line like this is very realistic for Elliott. But one could argue if he got 200 more yards, this could be worth a top two round pick given today’s running back situation.
2010 NFL Draft
# of running backs taken in Round 1: 3
| Pick | Name | Team | GP | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rec | Re Yds | Total TD |
| #9 | C.J. Spiller | Buf | 14 | 74 | 283 | 24 | 157 | 1 |
| #12 | Ryan Mathews | SD | 12 | 158 | 678 | 22 | 145 | 7 |
| #30 | Jahvid Best | Det | 16 | 171 | 555 | 58 | 487 | 6 |
Results:. Spiller had a so-so year in a crowded backfield (Lynch & Fred Jackson) in Buffalo, and started only one game. Mathews is an important study as well, since he was the primary two down back (Sproles) but gave way to Mike Tolbert often and specifically at the goal line (Tolbert had 11 rushing TD’s). Mathews started 9 games to Tolbert’s 4, yet Tolbert outrushed him. This is my main Elliot concern. Best had a really great rookie season (especially with the 58 receptions), but he shared timed with Maurice Morris and Kevin Smith. Best also had that explosive speed that really helped him on Detroit’s indoor surface.
2011 NFL Draft
# of running backs taken in Round 1: 1
| Pick | Name | Team | GP | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rec | Re Yds | Total TD |
| #28 | Mark Ingram | NO | 10 | 122 | 474 | 11 | 46 | 5 |
Results:. Messy situation for Ingram: Pierre Thomas, Darren Sproles, and even a young Chris Ivory. Started 4 games and had some moments in a high powered offense that used all of it’s backs. This probably represents a floor for Elliot, especially if he suffers the somewhat commonplace rookie injury.
2012 NFL Draft
# of running back taken in Round 1: 3
| Pick | Name | Team | GP | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rec | Re Yds | Total TD |
| #3 | Trent Richardson | Cle | 15 | 267 | 950 | 51 | 367 | 12 |
| #31 | Doug Martin | Tam | 16 | 319 | 1454 | 49 | 472 | 12 |
| #32 | David Wilson | NYG | 16 | 71 | 358 | 4 | 34 | 5 |
Results: You may get a chuckle out of T-Rich, but he is a good argument for the Elliott supporters. Third pick overall, entered as the main guy. But that last part is the key for ‘Zeke. Martin had Blount to beat out, and he did, starting 15 games in his rookie season. A great preseason helped Martin, and the same could prove true for Elliott. Everyone in New York wanted Wilson to be the guy, but he wasn’t durable enough and Bradshaw was the far superior pass blocker for Eli Manning. That is the “x” factor for Elliott. Can he protect an older, injury prone Romo?
2013 NFL Draft
# of running back taken in Round 1: 0
2014 NFL Draft
# of running back taken in Round 1: 0
Results: Both of these years really exemplifies the change in the predominant passing game offenses. Teams don’t trust RB’s in round 1, and feel the need to solidify at other positions (OL, DL, QB, WR).
2015 NFL Draft
# of running back taken in Round 1: 2
| Pick | Name | Team | GP | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rec | Re Yds | Total TD |
| #10 | Todd Gurley | St. L | 13 | 229 | 1106 | 21 | 188 | 10 |
| #15 | Melvin Gordon | SD | 14 | 184 | 641 | 33 | 192 | 0 |
Results: Here is the reason most analysts are so high on Ezekiel Elliott. Their recent memory is Gurley. He missed the first two games, played sparingly in the third and erupted (19 rushes, 146 yards) in the fourth. But that was a team with a poor offense, that really had to feed him the ball constantly. The Cowboys should be a good team, and with multiple backs, Dez, and Romo, Elliott will not be featured like Gurley. In fact, given the injury concerns, why wouldn’t the Cowboys rest him and rotate the running backs? Give him a year to get acclimated, and then if they like what they see, unleash him in 2017.
Here is my conclusion. The averages for all 23 of these running backs are the following:
| GP | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rec | Rec Yds | Total TD |
| 13.5 | 169.0 | 728.5 | 27.3 | 228.6 | 6.5 |
I think that is a very reasonable expectation for Ezekiel Elliot. If you draft him you are realistically hoping for 200 overall touches, which is a number reached by twelve of the players listed above, or pretty much 50%. If I had to find the best comparisons given Elliott’s total situation, I would pick Lynch and Wells. If you like Elliot you will believe, like Lynch did in 2007, that he beats out the competition and has a monster year. If you are skeptical, Beanie Wells may be a more accurate comparison, with McFadden/Morris playing the role of Hightower. And of course, he could possibly be like the fellow fourth overall pick McFadden who in 2008, had 784 total yards and four touchdowns. The key will be the preseason, to see how he develops and how his role gets defined. At this point, I think putting him as a second round fantasy pick is at best, premature. If he hits the average numbers of the first round backs over the last ten years, he’s more a round four to five selection. Caveat Emptor…”let the buyer beware.”
MAIN PHOTO:
