Our panel of college football experts Steen Kirby, Yesh Ginsburg, John Bava, and Mike Loveall are back for another season of previews and predictions for the best college football games each week.
The opening week of the 2016 season will set the course for a host of top teams with huge opening week matchups. This is one of the best opening weeks ever for college football, as SEC teams Texas A&M, Georgia, Ole Miss, Alabama, and Tennessee have big games against non-conference opponents, and two of the Big 12’s best, Oklahoma and Texas will test their mettle as well in non-conference action.
Tailgate Pick ‘Em College Football Week 1 Predictions
Appalachian State at #9 Tennessee Thursday 9/1 7:30 P.M.
Spread: Tennessee by 21
Steen: App State is one of the Sun Belt’s best teams, and returns plenty of talent from a team that was bowl bound last year. However, going to Rocky Top is hardly an easy task. Josh Dobbs, and the two headed backfield monster of Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara should be able to put up the points in this one, and if App State has any chance of notching the upset, their defense will have to step up big. Look for App State to hang around longer than expected, with the Vols overcoming early season pressure and pulling away in the second half. The Mountaineers lack the firepower to win this one. Tennessee 38, Appalachian State 24
Yesh: I’m leading off with my upset special. Appalachian State is a talented and veteran football team that was underrated for most of last year and seems to be even more underrated to start this year. Tennessee is flying high on hype after last season’s bowl blowout win. The Volunteers also return one of the most veteran teams in the country. Still, a line of 20 points is just way too high against a team as talented as Appalachian State. I might be stretching too much by picking the Mountaineers outright, but picking them to beat the spread is an easy option. Appalachian State 31, Tennessee 28
Mike: Appalachian State might be one of the few teams in the nation that returns as much experience as Tennessee. The Mountaineers are an explosive offense and a very quality Group-of-Five conference team. They are coming off an 11-win season and a bowl win in the Camelia Bowl. You can expect that Jones and the coaching staff have focused on the threat that Appalachian State represents to this team, so the real test in this game will be whether the Vols come out of the gate focused, similar to their opening weekend throttling of Utah State and Chuckie Keeton two years ago. While Appalachian State is a good team, their lackluster performance against Clemson last year and Tennessee’s athleticism on defense indicate a good opening night in Knoxville. Tennessee 37, Appalachian State 17
John: The Vols were arguably college football’s most snakebitten team in 2015. Their four losses were by a combined 17 points and they blew double digit leads in three of them. But they finished the season on a 6-0 run that included a 45-6 pasting of Northwestern in the Outback Bowl. Heading into Butch Jones’ fourth season in charge, the program is certainly trending upward in its quest to return to SEC juggernaut status.
The program that will forever be known for their historic upset of Michigan in 2007 will be looking to pull off another shocker when they travel to Neyland Stadium in week one. The Mountaineers return nine starters from the Sun Belt’s best defense in 2015. Senior running back Marcus Cox will be looking to replicate his performance from last season when he finished as the nation’s 17th leading rusher.
ASU is winless on the road against Power 5 schools since shocking Michigan, losing by an average margin of 38 points. The Vols aren’t going to overlook them. Tennessee 52, Appalachian State 20
#3 Oklahoma vs. #15 Houston Saturday 9/3 12:00 P.M.
Spread: Oklahoma by 10
Steen: OU is the better team on both sides of the ball, but this is a home game for Houston, and their quick strike offense should trouble OU for most of this game. Greg Ward is a dangerous QB, but I’m not sure the Houston defense will hold up against Baker Mayfield and company. The Sooners have a tough schedule early in the season, but they should get past this game. Houston rolled FSU last year in their bowl game, and both teams have high aspirations they should meet, but this game should demonstrate OU has an edge. Oklahoma 45, Houston 38
Yesh: For some reason, whenever the “mid-majors” return massive amounts of talent, it is never as appreciated as when P5 schools do. Houston actually returns very few starters across the board, but Greg Ward, Jr. is a Heisman-caliber player and leads a potent offense under the direction of Tom Herman. The defense might be susceptible, which could be disastrous against Oklahoma, but the Cougar D improved drastically from 2014 to 2015, so there is no reason to think it won’t happen again. Like with Appalachian State/Tennessee, the upset outright might be stretching, but Oklahoma will not cover a ten-point spread against a team this good. It just won’t happen. Houston 35, Oklahoma 34
Mike: While technically a neutral site game, the Sooners and Cougars start the season in a setting appropriate for this opening weekend – NRG Stadium, home of the NFL’s Houston Texans. Houston looks to capitalize on its impressive 2015 season, including a convincing New Year’s Six Bowl win over Florida State in the Peach Bowl. Greg Ward might be the best returning quarterback in the country not named Deshaun Watson. Many think this could be the year a Group-of-Five team can make it to the playoffs and Houston represents that hope. To do so, Tom Herman and his team will have to slow down Oklahoma’s athletic quarterback Baker Mayfield and their dual-headed running attack of Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon.
Oklahoma’s offense averaged 43.5 points in 2015 on their way to the college football playoffs. Many of those wins, especially late in the season, were razor-thin victories. Many see ’16 Oklahoma as ’14 Auburn, a team coming off a CFP appearance that is due for the breaks to go against them. Not on this Saturday, though. The difference is Houston’s defense, which can’t hold the diverse Sooner offense in check. Oklahoma 38, Houston 27
John: Many observers have this tilt as their week one upset special. The Cougars come into this season riding a lot of momentum after a 13-1 campaign that included a win over Florida State in the Peach Bowl. Second year coach Tom Herman returns plenty of key players including quarterback Greg Ward. The dual threat sensation finished second nationally among quarterbacks in 2015 with 1,108 rushing yards.
But standing in their way is a loaded Oklahoma team looking to build upon their College Football Playoff semifinal appearance from last year. The third-ranked Sooners return 13 starters on both sides of the ball. Perhaps the most prominent is quarterback Baker Mayfield who finished fourth in the Heisman Trophy voting last year. They also have a potentially potent backfield with Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon. Oklahoma 34, Houston 27
#16 UCLA at Texas A&M Saturday 9/3 3:30 P.M.
Spread: Texas A&M by 3
Steen: Josh Rosen and UCLA need to win this game if they are going to compete for a College Football Playoff spot this season. The Bruins have plenty of talent, but head into a hostile environment for their first game of the season. TAMU is under a lot of pressure internally and externally, and they are breaking in a new transfer QB. John Chavis defense should be stout, but I’m not sure the Aggies will be able to score when it counts. UCLA 24, Texas A&M 17
Yesh: I have no idea why Texas A&M is the favorite here. The Aggies have a quarterback who couldn’t make it at another school but he’s expected to come in and revitalize one of the top offenses in the SEC these past few years. UCLA has one of the best pure passers in the country and has the talent and speed on offense to run past Texas A&M all game long.
UCLA 31, Texas A&M 21
Mike: Another inter-conference litmus test in week one. Texas A&M had a catastrophic off-season, with the departure of two quarterbacks, PR issues with coaches, and drama on the recruiting trail. Like USC, Texas A&M is loaded with talent, especially at receiver and defensive line. The only question with the Aggies is can they put it together mentally. For UCLA, Josh Rosen is the story, but look closely at that defense. They return nine of 11 starters and four back-ups who were in the top 15 of tacklers last season. The Bruins should greatly improve on their 26 points allowed per game last season.
Several intriguing ancillary story lines in this game: Can John Chavis get the Aggie defense where they belong, Noel Mazzone faces his old team in his first game at Texas A&M, and Trevor Knight getting a second chance with Kevlin Sumlin in College Station, and – of course – the SEC vs. PAC 12 matchup. The soap opera game of the week ends in a surprisingly low-scoring game. UCLA 23, Texas A&M 21
John: The Texas A&M quarterback situation was one of the more highly publicized circuses in 2015. Both primary starters, Kyler Murray and Kyle Allen, eventually transferred. But it becomes much more stable this season with senior signal caller Trevor Knight coming in for one season after himself transferring from Oklahoma after the 2014 season. An experienced receiving corps that combined to catch for over 2,900 yards returns.
Fifth-year head coach Jim Mora has quickly turned the Bruins into the preeminent program in the City of Angels. He’s won three of four over city rivals USC even though they fell to the Trojans last year. Though quarterback Josh Rosen returns, he loses his two leading targets in Jordan Payton and Thomas Duarte. The Bruins could struggle against second year Aggie defensive coordinator John Chavis’ unit. Texas A&M 34, UCLA 24
#22 North Carolina vs. #18 Georgia Saturday 9/3 5:30 P.M.
Spread: Georgia by 3
Steen: UNC is a better team than they get credit for, while Georgia is over hyped, unless Jacob Eason can come in day one and sling the ball like Aaron Murray, Matt Stafford, and some of the other great UGA QB’s of recent memory. Under Kirby Smart, the UGA defense should be good, and contain UNC for most of the game. However, the UNC defense is improving, and I just have a feeling they will go into the Georgia Dome and pull off an upset. Don’t sleep on the Tar Heels in this one. North Carolina 24, Georgia 21
Yesh: The Tar Heel offense got off to a low start last year and can have tremendous problems when made one-dimensional. A defensive mind as good as Kirby Smart will be able to stop North Carolina’s offense cold. This game might get ugly, fast.
Georgia 31, North Carolina 6
Mike: For two teams that had a combined 21 wins in 2015, this game is flying under the radar. Another interesting match-up, this pits a Tar Heels team with an improving defense under Gene Chizik and a high tempo offense that averaged over 40 points per game in ’15 against a Georgia team that will have a tough running attack paired with a stingy defense (16.9 points allowed per game in ’15).
Both of these teams are underappreciated in the national conversation this pre-season. Georgia is one of the many teams in the SEC with questions at quarterback, even though they have a returning 10-win quarterback. And Mitch Trubisky should pick up right where Marquise Williams left off last year. Expect the running game and tough defense of Georgia to wear down North Carolina late. Georgia 27, North Carolina 24
John: It’s a new era in Athens with Kirby Smart replacing long-time head coach Mark Richt. The former Alabama defensive coordinator has plenty of talent to work with on that side of the football. Free safety Dominick Sanders led the conference with six interceptions in 2015 and looks to continue his dynamic play in the secondary this year. True freshman Jacob Eason, rated as the top pro-style quarterback prospect in the 2016 class by Rivals, is expected to start right off the bat.
The Tar Heels were one of the biggest surprise teams of 2015. They were unranked to start the season and remained that way until week 10. By the end of the season they vaulted all the way up to eighth before losing in the ACC title game to Clemson and the Russell Athletic Bowl to Baylor. Fifth year head coach Larry Fedora has a total of 14 returning starters, including the ACC’s third leading rusher from 2015 in Elijah Hood. North Carolina 27, Georgia 24
#20 USC vs. #1 Alabama Saturday 9/3 8:00 P.M.
Spread: Alabama by 11
Steen: Regardless of who the QB ends up being, Nick Saban should have his Crimson Tide prepared to punish their first opponent of the season in a neutral site game. Alabama should slow down the USC offense, and their running game will control the ball, and the clock. USC has skill position talent, but I don’t think Clay Helton is the coach to put it all together and beat Bama. Look for the Tide to make this game a slow grindfest that they excel in. Alabama 24, USC 14
Yesh: This is the biggest matchup of Week 1, but I am not quite sure why. USC has a ton of talent; it always does. But the Trojans don’t have the experience playing at a high level like Alabama does. If the USC offensive line can give new quarterback Max Browne enough time to find the open receivers spreading out the defense, then the Trojans might be able to move the ball, but I can’t see them slowing down the strong Crimson Tide rushing attack. Alabama 28, USC 20
Mike: Probably the toughest spread to call all weekend. USC is loaded with talent as they are every year. And we’ve learned to question Nick Saban at our peril. With all of their talent, the Trojans still have questions. Clay Helton is entering his first full year. Can Max Browne get the ball in the hands of a ridiculously talented receiver trio? And can a defense returning only five starters improve upon a 2015 season where they allowed over 25 points per game, including 41+ four times?
Alabama still hasn’t made the call at quarterback, but over the last decade the Tide have shown the ability to win year-in and year-out. Alabama is especially tough in neutral site openers, beating Michigan, Virginia Tech, West Virginia, and Wisconsin for four straight openers. Alabama is also 6-6 ATS in neutral site games over the past four years, while USC is 1-5 in the same category. While Alabama isn’t dominate, their toughness earns them a close win. Alabama 28, USC 23
John: The defending national champs open their season at “JerryWorld” for the second straight year. Nick Saban has to replace a lot on offense, with quarterback Jake Coker, running backs Derrick Henry and Kenyan Drake, as well as offensive linemen A’Shawn Robinson and Jarran Reed all having departed. True freshman Jalen Hurts appears to be the frontrunner to start at quarterback.
Bama’s opponent are looking to put a tumultuous 2015 behind them. The Trojans removed the interim tag off Clay Helton after the long-time assistant led USC to the Pac-12 title game last year upon taking over for Steve Sarkisian. Much like FSU, this team returns pretty much everyone on offense except the quarterback with Cody Kessler off to the NFL. Helton has already named junior Max Browne the opening day starter. Alabama 34, USC 20
#10 Notre Dame at Texas Sunday 9/4 7:30 P.M.
Spread: Notre Dame by 4
Steen: Charlie Strong’s Longhorns badly need to win this, or at least make it a competitive contest to assuage their critics after years of futility at a historically strong program. Texas is much better than last year, where they got rocked by the Irish, and Notre Dame is in a bit of commotion right now. ND also lost some of their best players from last year, and all in all with Texas playing at DKR they should make this closer. However, ND should find a way to win in the end. Notre Dame 28, Texas 21
Yesh: I am actually not sold on Notre Dame this season. The Irish have recruited very well since Brian Kelly came along, but this team lost a ton of talent from last season. No one is expecting anything from Texas after another disappointing rebuilding season under Charlie Strong. That is also a mistake. You know who isn’t making a mistake about this? Vegas oddsmakers. According to the polls, this is a matchup of a Top 10 team against an unranked one. According to the line, these teams are separated by about a field goal. The latter sounds much more right to me. Notre Dame 27, Texas 24
Mike: Many people forget that Notre Dame was six points and a few seconds away from an undefeated regular season in 2015. That included a 38-3 opening week beat down of Texas in South Bend, a game that began Texas’ disappointing ’15 campaign. But four of the Texas 2015 losses came by 3 points or less, had an impressive win over an Oklahoma team that made the CFP, and they return 15 starters and have better depth.
Notre Dame, conversely, returns very little in terms of stats, outside of quarterback, and has had several recent off-the-field issues that will force Brian Kelly to adjust the line-up and depth chart. This game could be the reverse of last season, a Texas win that sets Notre Dame off on a disappointing season. And speaking of Kelly, Notre Dame is an unimpressive 5-9 ATS as road favorites in the Kelly era. If Texas can get any quality play from quarterback, this could be the upset of the week. Texas 27, Notre Dame 24
John: Last year, the Irish welcomed Texas to South Bend for the season opener and thoroughly embarrassed the Longhorns in a dominating 38-3 win. This time, it’s ND’s turn to travel to Austin and pursue their sixth straight win in the series. Injuries ravaged Notre Dame last season but they still came within a made Stanford field goal in the regular season finale from possibly being included in the CFP. Brian Kelly has his work cut out for him to repeat that feat with just nine returning starters.
Charlie Strong enters his third year as Texas head coach under a lot of pressure to right the ship after back-to-back losing seasons. Last year ended on a high note after an upset of 12th ranked Baylor in the season finale. But the fact we’re talking about a win over Baylor being an upset just speaks to how far the Longhorn program has fallen. 2016 is certainly a make or break year for the Burnt Orange. Notre Dame 31, Texas 23
#11 Ole Miss vs. #4 Florida State Monday 9/5 8:00 P.M.
Spread: Florida State by 5
Steen: Two very good teams, that will try to be great this season. Ole Miss lost way more reliable talent than FSU did from last year’s team, but they bring back an experienced QB in Chad Kelly, while FSU is starting Deondre Francois in his first ever college start. Starting a freshman worked when it was Jameis Winston in 2013, but Winston was a once in a decade talent, and those are big shoes for Francois to fill. Luckily he has Heisman candidate Dalvin Cook to hand the ball to, and will be protected by an experienced offensive line. FSU’s defense is better than Ole Miss, and they will get stops with their speed, and a line that can get pressure on Kelly and possibly force some mistakes. If Francois can play a decent game FSU should win this, but if he has jitters, Ole Miss could find a way. Florida State 24, Ole Miss 14
Yesh: Ole Miss has had its best stretch in history recently, but the program has some questions right now, especially regarding recruiting violations. None of that matters, though. Florida State is one of the most talented teams in the country this year. Especially early in the season, Ole Miss just won’t be able to keep up. Florida State 31, Ole Miss 14
Mike: The difference in this game will be Florida State’s offensive line. That unit returns in tact with 74 career starts amongst them. And with Dalvin Cook behind them look for FSU to control the game on the ground all night long. It doesn’t matter that Francois is under center, a depleted Ole Miss defense will struggle to get off the field.
The good news is Chad Kelly and Evan Engram should be able to exploit the middle of FSU defense – if Kelly can get any help from a running game. If not, it’ll be up to Kelly to find time with his legs and make plays with his arm all night. The Rebel offense should be able to find some success against the Seminoles, but not enough to keep up with Cook and Company. Florida State 38, Ole Miss 24
John: The Noles return virtually everyone on the offensive side of the football with the exception of the quarterback. Redshirt freshman Deondre Francois is expected to get the starting job with Sean Maguire out due to preseason foot surgery. With an experienced offensive line in front of him, he might not get as much of a trial by fire as some.
Their week one opponent boasts one of college football’s more prolific signal callers in Chad Kelly. Last year, he led the SEC with 4,042 passing yards and 31 touchdowns. Despite losing wideout Laquon Treadwell and tackle Laremy Tunsil to the NFL Draft, the offense shouldn’t miss a beat considering the success head coach Hugh Freeze continues to have on the recruiting trail.
These two programs have met just once all-time, a 33-0 win for Ole Miss back on October 7, 1961. This one’s expected to go the other way even though it could make for a high scoring affair. Florida State 41, Ole Miss 35
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