AFL Round 9 features the AFL’s second annual China game between Port Adelaide and Gold Coast, a game in Tasmania with finals implications between North Melbourne and GWS, and a top of the ladder clash to end the round between Richmond and West Coast in Perth. Both sides sit at one loss, and the winner is sure to move to 32 points and lead the ladder, while the loser will be alone in second.
Adelaide vs. Western Bulldogs (Friday at Adelaide Oval)
Adelaide comes off a home loss against their rivals Port Adelaide, while the Dogs have won three straight. That said, Adelaide are heavy favorites and seen as the better side. The Crows injuries will give the Dogs a shot as Mitch McGovern, Taylor Walker, and Matt Crouch are out, with Sam Gibson, Kyle Hartigan, Lachlan Murphy, and Darcy Fogarty slotting in. That’s a decent crop of replacements, but it pales in comparison to the leadership the Crows lose this game. The Dogs swap Aaron Naughton, Lewis Young, and Mitch Honeychurch for Jackson Trengove, Easton Wood, and Jordan Roughhead. The Dogs winning streak deserves respect as they have made significant improvements from a poor start. With the Crows injuries, I’ll tip the upset and back Brownlow contender Jack Macrae to carry the Bulldogs to a win. Western Bulldogs by 14
North Melbourne vs. GWS Giants (Saturday in Tasmania)
These teams are in a similar place on the ladder, but GWS are viewed as underachievers, while North are viewed as overachievers. The winner of this game has a much better chance of making finals than the loser, and given they are playing in fortress Tasmania, I give North Melbourne the edge. The Giants lose key backline player Phil Davis along with Matt de Boer (Harry Perryman and Tim Mohr slot in), while North retains the talents of Ben Cunnington, and Ben Brown that have been reliable leaders for them this season. North is clicking and GWS looks vulnerable at the moment, look for the Roos to take advantage. North Melbourne by 27
Gold Coast Suns vs. Port Adelaide Power (Saturday in Shanghai, China)
Port has dominated this series and heads into the China game on the back of a big win, while Gold Coast is banged up, and has struggled in recent weeks. The Suns lose Sam Day to suspension (debut Jacob Heron), while Port brought their best squad including Robbie and Sam Gray, Steven Motlop, and Tom Rockliff. Gold Coast has a leaky backline and they don’t kick that many goals, this one could get ugly like last year. Port Adelaide by 68
Essendon vs. Geelong Cats (Saturday at the MCG)
Essendon is struggling at 2-6, while Geelong looks solid at the moment and lead the recent series 4-1. Essendon fired their assistant coach this week, and they swung the axe with the lineup as Michael Hurley, Kobe Mutch, Darcy Parish, David Myers, and Ben McNiece give way for Jordan Ridley, Matt Guelfi, Dylan Clarke, Matt Dea, and Kyle Langford. The Bombers get younger, but I’m not sure they are going to get a lot better. The Cats return Tom Hawkins up forward and paired with Sam Menegola they should boot a ton of goals. Look for Geelong to dominate this one. Geelong by 40
Sydney Swans vs. Fremantle (Saturday at the SCG)
Freo has been blown out in their last two games against Sydney, but they have a real chance at an upset this time if they rise to the occasion. Nathan Wilson and Michael Walters are key ins this week, while Nat Fyfe will continue his Brownlow quest. Sydney gets the bigger ins with Lance Franklin back at forward, and Dan Hannebery back in the midfield. Sydney’s backline has been really good without getting a ton of credit lately, and I don’t think Freo outscores Buddy Franklin and co. in this one. Sydney by 27
St. Kilda vs. Collingwood (Saturday at Etihad Stadium)
The 1-6-1 Saints will be heavy underdogs against the 4-4 Pies who need to win this game to keep to pace with their other finals competitors in the 6-12 range. The return of Scott Pendlebury will be key, while Alex Fasolo and Tom Langdon slot in for Ben Crocker and Darcy Moore. The Saints swap in Jack Lonie, Jack Sinclair, and Bailey Rice, while Sam Gilbert, Blake Acres, and Sam Carlisle are out. The Saints are better talent wise than their horror season, but I don’t see a compelling reason to pick against the balanced Pies. Collingwood by 38
Carlton vs. Melbourne (Sunday at the MCG)
Carlton got their first win of the year last week, but Melbourne is in fine form and won both meetings last season. The loss of Ed Curnow will dampen the Blues hopes of a win, and presuming Max Gawn and Clayton Oliver outplay Matthew Kreuzer and Patrick Cripps, Melbourne should win, most likely with ease. Melbourne by 43
Brisbane Lions vs. Hawthorn (Sunday at the Gabba)
Brisbane has been competitive but remains winless, while at 5-3 the Hawks are smack dab in the middle of finals contention, which is where they wanted to be this season. Hawthorn has dominated the series for a while, and even though Jaeger O’Meara is out, Paul Puopolo returns. As long as Tom Mitchell can shake a tag, this one could get ugly. Hawthorn by 47
West Coast Eagles vs. Richmond (Sunday at Optus Stadium)
The clash of the round, the Eagles and Tigers have split meetings in recent years, and both sides are red hot at 7-1 this season. West Coast at home gives them an edge in my mind though as I feel they are firing at their best, while Richmond is at about 80% of their best. Dustin Martin was tagged into a poor game last round, while the Eagles midfield has exceeded expectations. Look for Nic Naitanui to give Jack Redden and co. supply, while Jack Darling and the other Eagles forwards kick enough to lead the Eagles to a narrow win. West Coast by 9
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