The 2014 Miami Marlins finished the season 77-85. For many in the baseball community, although they finished in fourth place in the NL East, the season was viewed as a success for the team. Many people did not see them Marlins competing and the early season loss of ace Jose Fernandez certainly did not help that belief. In 2014, the offense was middle of the road finishing in 16th in the MLB in runs scored. The team did not hit for very much power, besides Giancarlo Stanton, ranking 22nd in the league in ISO. The starting rotation was among the worst in baseball ranking eighth worst in team ERA and recording the third lowest K/9. However, despite all of these woes the team did see a modest amount of success in 2014, which lead to some hope for growth going into 2015.
On Tuesday, the team made another move towards success in 2015 and beyond by signing 1B/OF Michael Morse to a two year deal. The slugger will likely play first for the Marlins replacing Garrett Jones. Morse will be a massive upgrade over Jones especially on the offensive side of the ball. Morse has a career 122 wRC+ which means that he is 22% better than average at the plate. Jones for his career only has a 107 wRC+. Morse also has the advantage over Jones when it comes to his career splits. Jones, a left-handed hitter has dreadful career numbers against lefties with a wRC+ of 53. This forced the Marlins to either play with basically an automatic out in their lineup against lefties or platoon Jones with someone else. With Morse this disadvantage does not exist as in his career he has a 124 wRC+ against southpaws and 121 against righties. At first both players are not considered superstars defensively as Morse as -2.0 UZR/150 and Jones posted -5.2. This means that Jones is slightly worse defensively according to metrics but Morse isn’t exactly a superstar either. This signing will definitely make the 2015 Marlins better and will add Jones to their bench making their team even deeper.
The Morse deal is just the most recent of many deals that the Marlins have made in the past few weeks. They added through major trades, 2B/SS Dee Gordon, starter Dan Haren, and starter Mat Latos. Gordon who is coming off of his best season as a professional will immediately slot as the team’s second baseman. Marlins’ second basemen were middle of the pack offensively in 2014 with a wRC+ of 80 good for 17th in the league. Gordon was basically league average last year with a 101 wRC+ but his speed is likely the main reason the Marlins targeted him as his 64 steals in 2014 were more than the entire Marlins roster. Haren, has struggled the past few season with an ERA over 4 in each of the last three years. However, in 2014 the ERA dropped relative to the previous two years likely due to an increase in his GB% to back over 40% for the first time since 2011. Home runs seem to be a main culprit for his failures in recent seasons with over 1.4 HR/9 in both 2012 and 2013 but that number lowered slightly to 1.31 in 2014. However, Haren previously stated a desire to stay on the West Coast and pitch for the Dodgers or Angels so there are rumors that the 34-year-old may retire rather than play in Miami. If he decides to stay in Miami he will easily fit into the team’s rotation as they struggled for much of 2014 to find consistency at the back end of the rotation. To acquire Gordon and Haren, the team was forced to trade left handed pitcher Andrew Heaney who was the team’s best prospect according to Baseball Prospectus.
The team also added Mat Latos trading away two prospects to acquire the big right-hander. Latos has had a history of arm issues and other injury concerns but when he has been on the mound he has been very effective. In every season he has pitched more than 100 innings he has posted an ERA below 3.50. However, a concerning trend is his rapidly dropping K/9 rate. In 2010 Latos struck out over nine batters every nine innings yet in 2014 that number dropped all the way to 6.5. The drop in strikeouts could be due to a drop in his velocity as he only averaged 90 MPH with his fastball as opposed to his career average of 92 MPH. The Marlins are buying hope in the fact that the velocity drop was a result of his injury and that Latos can help add depth to a rotation that already contains Jose Fernandez, Henderson Alvarez, Jarred Cosart, and hopefully Dan Haren. If Haren retires the fifth starter will likely be either Nathan Eovaldi, who pitched better than his Era numbers suggest, or Tom Koehler who had a successful 2014 season. However, if Haren stays that could make the hard throwing Eovaldi expendable and allow the team to shop him for bullpen help or possibly for a third baseman in case Casey McGehee does not repeat his 2014 success.
These aggressive off-season moves along with the mega-deal signed by Giancarlo Stanton as the beginning of the off-season seem to be signs of the Marlins’ visions for their future. The Washington Nationals are the cream of the crop in the division now but they will have a number of question marks after 2015 in terms of their free agents and while the New York Mets seem to be on the rise, the Atlanta Braves may be in rebuilding mode and the Philadelphia Phillies are in full blown rebuild mode at the moment. Within the next year or so the NL East may be looking for a new team to rise to the top and right now the Miami Marlins seem to be going all in for that crown.
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