We’re now in the home stretch of the offseason. In less than a month, pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, and we’re all quite excited to find out who’s in The Best Shape of His Life ™. Unless your name is James Shields, the remaining free agent selection is a veritable who’s-who of scrapheap has-beens and injury-rebounding hopefuls looking for one more shot. Oh, and a couple interesting relievers.
In essence, we’ve reached the point where if you’ve got holes to plug, it’s time to pick the lesser of many evils or pony up and make a trade. What makes all of this fun is that every team has holes on its roster, even the seemingly godly Washington Nationals (now with more Max Scherzer!). What are the holes on each team, and how would they go about fixing them? And if you’re a team that’s still looking to sell, what part of your roster can you sell from? I’m glad you asked!
We’ve already covered the NL East, AL East, NL Central and AL Central. Today, we’ll cover the NL West in the penultimate entry in the series.
The Offseason Never Ends: NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers – Andre Can’t Stay on Your Couch Any Longer, People Are Starting to Talk
We’ve all heard about how fantastic a job A.J. Preller has done in his first winter with the Padres, and we’ll talk about all that later. But goodness gracious, let’s take a moment to appreciate Andrew Friedman and Farhan Zaidi’s premiere with the Dodgers. The boys in blue are heading into Spring Training after getting a fantastic facelift to their roster that leaves them in an even better position than they have been in over the past few seasons.
First and foremost, Matt Kemp is no more. Friedman and Preller matched up on one of the biggest trades of the winter to ship Kemp (and Tim Federowicz) further south in exchange for catcher Yasmani Grandal and prospects Joe Wieland and Zach Elfin. By flipping Kemp, the Dodgers get out from under most of Kemp’s humongous contract and don’t have to deal with the oft-injured and defensively deficient slugger’s presence on the field. The move also finally lets outfield prospect Joc Pederson onto the roster full-time. Pederson has hit well at every station in the minors, and can actually play center field pretty well, which is something that none of the other Dodger outfielders can claim. Grandal’s presence also removes light-hitting A.J. Ellis from the primary catching job. While Ellis will most likely continue to serve as Clayton Kershaw’s personal backstop, Grandal gives Los Angeles controllable upside and turns a spot that had been an offensive loss into a potential strength. What’s also pretty impressive are the new faces in the middle infield. Hanley Ramirez left in free agency, and Dee Gordon was traded to the Marlins. Things are about to get complicated, so don’t read this too quickly. Okay, ready?
In the first part of this multi-team monstrosity, Gordon, Dan Haren, and infielder Miguel Rojas were sent to the Marlins for reliever Chris Hatcher, utilityman Enrique Hernandez, infield prospect Austin Barnes, and Andrew Heaney. Heaney was Miami’s top prospect, and one of the best pitching prospects in all of baseball. That’s an incredibly impressive haul for Gordon and Haren. But wait! We’re not done. Not an hour later, Heaney was then sent across town to the Angels for Howie Kendrick, who will replace Gordon at second base. And then, because a shortstop was still needed, Friedman and Zaidi acquired longtime Philly Jimmy Rollins for pitching prospects Tom Windle and Zach Elfin (remember him from the Kemp deal?).
Holy wheeling and dealing, Batman! That’s before we even take into account the additions of Joel Peralta, Chris Heisey and Juan Nicasio, too. Oh, and they signed Brandon McCarthy and Brett Anderson to fill out the rotation. That’s a massive amount of change for a team that’s won the division two years running, but almost all of it was necessary. This was a team with major holes, and in a way it still remains one (more on that in a second). What’s truly remarkable about all this is that the Dodgers did all of this without the prospect holy trinity of Pederson, Cory Seager, and Julio Urias. They did this by selling on Gordon (who was largely unimpressive after his All-Star selection) and moving a cancerous contract off the payroll, while acquiring prospects with good upside. Impressive, to say the least.
However, I think there’s still a move to be made. Andre Ethier and his own bloated contract are still on the books, yet he currently figures to be little more than a bench player with the ascension of Joc Pederson. While Ethier is a perfectly serviceable bench piece at this stage in his career, it’s not ideal at that price. Does money really concern the Dodgers at this point? Of course not. But not having Ethier’s contract around frees up even more wiggle room for in-season transactions, and allows the Dodgers to focus elsewhere.
Like the bullpen, for instance. Los Angeles lacked consistent relief pitching outside of Kenley Jansen. The additions of Peralta, Hatcher and Nicasio may help address that issue, but Peralta and Nicasio come with serious question marks. If Ethier can be flipped to a team in need of outfield help for some relief pitching (the Dodgers would likely have to eat most of the money), it could go a long way.
San Francisco Giants – When Depth Isn’t Enough
The Giants won a World Series in 2014, perhaps you heard about that. They’ve been doing that a lot lately. San Francisco has obviously been getting a lot of stuff right lately, which they should be commended for. Yet their rotation is starting to be a spot that’s being exposed as a weakness waiting to happen.
Madison Bumgarner is really good at baseball. Matt Cain was once really good at baseball, until he got hurt. If he’s healthy this year, he could be a huge boost. Tim Hudson was really good at baseball until about the second half of 2014, and he may have one more year of usefulness in his arm. Jake Peavy is just that, useful. And Tim Lincecum was once amazing at baseball, but is far from that anymore, and is almost certainly better used as a reliever. Cain, Hudson and Peavy could all realistically wind up on the DL at the same time at some point in 2015, which is part of why Brian Sabean brought back veteran Ryan Vogelsong. If Lincecum starts the year as a reliever, Vogelsong will be the fifth starter, with Timmy and Yusmeiro Petit acting as swingmen. Petit is sneaky good, and while he’s a great multi-faceted weapon for Bruce Bochy to have in his back pocket, there’s still too much age and injury risk in this staff. If you want to start getting really scary, one could mention that Bumgarner threw well over 250 innings between the regular season and the playoffs. It’s easy to think of Bumgarner as Walter Johnson reincarnated, but his workload total is something to keep an eye on.
Sabean missed the boat on the slough of free agent starters earlier this winter. Jon Lester, Jason Hammel, Ervin Santana, and perhaps even Francisco Liriano all made sense as additions to the staff that was in desperate need of innings. The returns of Peavy and Vogelsong absolutely help, but when push comes to shove they most likely won’t be enough. There’s no obvious call-up candidate at Triple-A besides Chris Heston, and that’s not someone you want to hand the ball to every five days for a few weeks. There’s a number of scrapheap arms still milling about in free agency, and of course there’s James Shields. Even Shields may not be the best match, purely because of his advanced age and considerable mileage. Sabean needs to address his wares with a discerning eye in Spring Training, and I think a trade is likely before the Giants break camp.
San Diego Padres – So Close Yet So Very, Very Far
Let’s have a round of applause for A.J. Preller. Regardless of whether or not the Padres make the playoffs this year, Preller has made the Padres relevant again. That’s good for baseball as a whole. Good on you, A.J. Preller and San Diego ownership.
Now, about that whole playoffs thing. The Padres have a stupid amount of make-or-break in every section of their roster, so much that I could easily see them winning the division or going up in flames by the trade deadline. On paper, the Upton-Myers-Kemp outfield triumvirate is impressive. As I’m sure you’ve all heard, though, those three are going to be a defensive nightmare, and they’re going to have to hit a whole lot to make up for that lost value. Can they do that? If they’re healthy, they absolutely can. However, Myers is coming off of wrist surgery, and Kemp failed his physical in such spectacular fashion (hip necrosis!) that his trade from L.A. nearly didn’t go through. If Kemp actually manages to be healthy for full season and Myers rebounds on the offensive side of things, that’s a very scary middle of the lineup.
It’s also a lineup that will be trotting out an infield of Yangervis Solarte, Alexei Amarista (platooned with Clint Barmes, no less), Jedd Gyorko, and Yonder Alonso. Gyorko is a great rebound candidate with the bat, but the rest of the group is lacking on offense to say the least. New catcher Derek Norris (mostly hit, little glove) fits this trend of one-sided players. A.J. Preller is risking all his marbles on this group gelling together well, and on the health of his pitching staff.
Andrew Cashner is a fantastic pitcher, but he’s never topped 175 innings in a season. Also, 2014 breakout Tyson Ross throws an awful lot of sliders (41.2% of all his pitches in 2014!), and a heavy usage of that pitch has been linked to forearm injuries. The health of Cashner, Ross, Myers and Kemp will determine whether or not the Padres are a team to fear.
Colorado Rockies – The Overhaul That Wasn’t
Rockies fans rejoiced when GM Dan O’Dowd was shown the door. The event represented an opportunity to bring new direction to a franchise that has been stuck in neutral for far too long, and is in desperate need of a reboot. Ownership, led by Dick and Charlie Monfort, instead tabbed O’Dowd’s right hand man Jeff Bridich to take over. Colorado’s major moves thus far have been the additions of… Nick Hundley, Daniel Descalso, David Hale, and John Axford.
Bridich hasn’t subtracted; he’s stood pat. I’d been rather critical of the Monfort/O’Dowd regime in the past, as had generally the entire baseball community. Is Bridich more of the same? It certainly seems that way, but it may be too early to tell. The main criticism of the Colorado plan has revolved around their refusal to blow up a team that’s routinely found itself at the bottom of the division, or demanding far too much talent in trade negotiations. The Rockies aren’t lacking for valuable pieces to sell off, either. Justin Morneau, Wilin Rosario, Jorge De La Rosa, Jhoulys Chacin and Rex Brothers could all fetch decent parcels right now. The real prizes are Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, and it’s here that Bridich’s offseason starts to make a bit of sense.
Tulo and CarGo, as they’re affectionately known, are both franchise players when healthy. Naturally, “when healthy” is the operative term here. It’s a somewhat rare event when both are in the lineup and fully healthy, and when that’s the case is when the Rockies fire on all cylinders. It’s why Colorado usually gets off to blistering starts every year before falling back into obscurity. Both Tulo and CarGo are on the mend from injuries at the moment, which significantly hampers their trade value. Both are signed to rather cumbersome contracts to begin with, as well. No GM in their right mind would dump prospects on an expensive fragile player while that player is on the DL, even for one of Tulowitzki’s talent. Mega-hitters who play shortstop don’t exactly grow on trees. A healthy Tulowitzki is akin to a prime Alex Rodriguez, and would command a corresponding trade package (I’ve written about precisely this elsewhere). Also like Rodriguez, Tulo’s latest ailment was treated with the same hip procedure that helped send A-Rod’s career into a tailspin. Buyer beware.
There’s also the matter of Colorado’s own farm system. While all these players would bring in an embarrassment of riches into the system, the Rockies aren’t exactly hurting for young talent. The big league team already boasts standouts like Nolan Arenado, Corey Dickerson, D.J. LeMahieu, Jordan Lyles and Tyler Matzek. Lyles and Matezk, who are both starting pitchers, are especially important to any winning aspirations the Rockies may have in the near- and long-term. Perhaps even more important are Jon Gray and Eddie Butler, who are both consistently regarded as two of the best pitching prospects in the game, and both will be ready to contribute early in 2015. If Colorado can stay healthy, and if both Gray and Butler can pitch well in the rotation, Bridich will be hailed as a genius for not selling. Those are two huge variables, given the health track record of the roster and the success rate of pitchers at Coors Field. If the cards don’t fall correctly, it will finally be time for Colorado to turn the page at the trade deadline.
Arizona Diamondbacks – Tuffy Gosewhich is Not a Starting Catcher
I decided on the heading of this section before Arizona gave Gerald Laird a minor league deal on Sunday. That makes the catching situation in the desert ever so slightly better, in the sense that there’s another human being with a pulse on the catching depth chart. Of course, Gerald Laird hasn’t been much of a major leaguer in a while, and the story on 35-year old catchers as a group isn’t sexy in the least.
Before Laird was given his non-roster invitation to camp, the Snakes were positioned to enter the season with career depth piece Tuffy Gosewhich, Rule 5 draftee Oscar Hernandez, and “catching” prospect Peter O’Brien as the primary candidates to see time as the backstop following the trade of Miguel Montero to Chicago. O’Brien, acquired this past summer in the Martin Prado trade, is by far the most interesting of those pieces. However, he comes with serious defensive question marks behind the plate, and massive swing-and-miss potential to offset his prodigious power. It’s not hard to envision O’Brien being eaten alive by top-shelf heaters and big league breaking balls.
Arizona is clearly in a sort of pseudo-rebuilding phase. Their lineup for 2015 actually doesn’t look terrible beyond the catcher position, but their rotation is simply ghastly. Either Josh Collmenter or Jeremy Hellickson (!) could start on opening day, and they’re currently slated to be backed by Rubby De La Rosa, Allen Webster, and Randall Delgado. Patrick Corbin is on the mend from Tommy John surgery and could factor into the rotation at some point this year, and top prospect Archie Bradley will probably be up at some point as well. But this is an ugly-looking group, and the losses will pile up very quickly at the start of the year.
Therefore there’s an argument to be made for punting on the catcher position, no? Why invest more money in a roster that’s destined for failure? The D-Backs made their big buy of the offseason when they invested in Yasmany Tomas, a move that was made with an eye towards 2016 and beyond. Why allot more payroll space towards a catcher that will require a real salary?
It’s one thing to not invest in a certain roster spot due to a rebuild effort. Yet Arizona is going to be relying on quite a few young pitchers this season, many of whom will be getting their first full taste of the majors. Rookies and youngsters like them benefit a veteran backstop to guide them along and shepherd them through the storm, and while Gosewhich checks those boxes, he’s only played more than 100 games at any level twice. If Arizona wants to invest in the development of their young pitching talent, why not give Jose Molina a call? The middle Molina brother was recently cut loose by Tampa Bay, and while at age 40 he doesn’t project to be any more durable than Gosewhich and he won’t hit a lick, his sage pitching wisdom could be invaluable to the progression of arms like Webster and Bradley.
In the final installment, we’ll conclude with the AL West.
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