Week 5 of the 2015 College Football Season features defining games for at least four of the top 15 teams in the country. Alabama will go “Between The Hedges” against Georgia, and Notre Dame heads down to Clemson for a primetime clash with another top ACC team this season. Additionally, Baylor looks to put up enough points to avoid an upset against Texas Tech, Oklahoma and West Virginia will duel for a breakthrough Big 12 win, and Iowa travels to Wisconsin for a Big 10 rivalry game. Our experts John Bava, Yesh Ginsburg, Steen Kirby and Mike Loveall are on hand to make their predictions and picks, and before we get to that, here is a look at our standings through week 4.
#23 West Virginia at #15 Oklahoma (Saturday 10/3/15 12:00 P.M. EST in Norman, OK)
Line: Oklahoma by 7
John:
A battle of prolific passing offenses awaits us in Norman. Both Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield and West Virginia’s Skyler Howard are in the top 20 nationally in yards per game through the air. What may help the Mountaineers is their ability to defend the pass themselves. They’re currently 17th in the nation in yards allowed and have forced nine interceptions, tied with three other programs for best in FBS.
Oklahoma is looking to reassert their status as Big 12 heavyweights in 2015 while West Virginia aims to become major players in the conference title race for the first time since joining the league. For the Sooners, a victory would be huge considering they went winless against ranked conference foes in 2014, including two at home. A WVU win would be their first against OU since joining the conference and only their second in the all-time series between the two teams (41-27 win in 1982). I think Mayfield outduels Howard and figures out the Mountaineer defense which to date has been quite stingy.
Yesh:
Oklahoma’s defense needs serious work but the offense seems unstoppable. Baker Mayfield has looked incredible so far, except for the first half against Tennessee. West Virginia is untested so far because we’re not really sure how good Maryland is. They have looked really good so far. Let’s see what they can do against Oklahoma.
Prediction: Oklahoma 37, West Virginia 34
Steen:
This feels like a trap game for Oklahoma, a traditional Big 12 power playing at home against relative new kids on the block West Virginia. Dana Holgorsen’s team has thumped both Georgia Southern, a bowl quality team and the best of the Sun Belt, and rival Maryland, and is off to a 3-0 start, as they outscored those two teams by a combined margin of 89-6. The Mountaineers score plenty with their air raid spread, but they also have proven adept at forcing turnovers. QB Skyler Howard is underrated for West Virginia and could out play the Sooners Baker Mayfield.
Oklahoma had a gutsy comeback against Tennessee as Eric Striker on the defensive side, among others, stepped up as a leader for this Sooner team. With that said, OU gave up 38 against Tulsa, and I’m not sure I entirely trust them to keep pace with West Virginia’s scoring offense, thus I’m going with the upset as a pesky and dark horse West Virginia team should win this and enter the national stage.
Prediction: West Virginia 45, Oklahoma 38
Mike:
West Virginia is another team off to a solid start without much fanfare. They’ll get their first real test this week traveling to Norman. The Sooners have quietly returned to national prominence – in the shadow of Baylor and TCU no less – and look to be legitimate contenders in the Big 12 this season. Look for Oklahoma’s defense to slow down the Mountaineers enough to win this game by a comfortable margin.
Prediction: Oklahoma 42, West Virginia 31
Iowa at #19 Wisconsin (Saturday 10/3/15 12:00 P.M. EST in Madison, WI)
Line: Wisconsin by 7
John:
The marquee game in Big Ten play for Week 5 involves two teams looking to position themselves favorably in what looks to be a wide open Big Ten West Division. Wisconsin seems to have rebounded nicely from their week one defeat at the hands of Alabama. Since then, they’ve outscored the three opponents they’ve faced 114-3. For Iowa, an offense that has struggled putting points on the board in recent years suddenly looks mighty prolific on that side of the football. The Hawkeyes are currently averaging 37.8 points per game which is second in the Big Ten.
Both defenses are allowing less than 300 yards per game and have sacked opposing quarterbacks a combined 25 times. Expect both signal callers to deal with a lot of pressure. Having said that, I give a slight edge to Iowa quarterback C.J. Beathard, who’s third in the conference in passing yards. His play will play a significant part in whether or not the Hawkeye program can return to relevance in 2015.
The last time Iowa won in this series back in 2009, they did so on the road. They have the opportunity to do so once again on Saturday. That said, Camp Randall is one of the hardest places to play in the nation, so I still have to give the edge to the Badgers.
Prediction: Wisconsin 23, Iowa 17
Yesh:
Iowa has looked like they could struggle against Iowa State and Pittsburgh. Neither of those teams are world-beaters, but both of those are Power 5 teams. Wisconsin is a step up in competition that Iowa hasn’t seen the likes of yet. The Badgers defense has been stifling against poor competition. Their pass-heavy offense is not normal Wisconsin style, either, and it hasn’t seemed to have done well so far this year.
Prediction: Iowa 14, Wisconsin 13
Steen:
This will be a physical Big 10 game on the defensive side of the ball, but in many ways this battle of rivals will feature a different offensive style than you’d expect from either team. Iowa happens to have a relatively exciting offense with a mobile QB, and Wisconsin has a better passing game than they did before.
The Badgers are missing Cory Clement and instead have Freshman Taiwan Deal and Dare Ogunbowale splitting caries in the backfield. With that said, they have overall seemed to bounce back nicely after a rough opening week outing against a stronger Alabama team, and remain in contention to reach the Big 10 title game.
Iowa also has aspirations to reach that same title game, and a pair of close wins over Pitt, which was missing their star RB, and rival Iowa State have given even the detractors of Kirk Ferentz a bit of hope this season. This one should stay close, but I’m going to bet that Iowa’s 4-0 start is a more of a fluke than anything else, and Wisconsin will end up superior in pretty much every facet of the game.
Wisconsin 24, Iowa 14
Mike:
Iowa is undefeated in the early going, but they haven’t yet played a quality opponent. And there were a lot of questions about the program in the offseason. Wisconsin is coming off an early test against Alabama. In addition to answering numerous questions about both of these programs, this is also a key game in the Big 10 West race. Wisconsin has a lot of questions with a new coach and the loss of their top offensive player. In the end, Wisconsin still has the tools to overpower and outlast Iowa, although it won’t be pretty.
Prediction: Wisconsin 21, Iowa 13
Texas Tech vs. #5 Baylor (Saturday 10/3/15 3:30 P.M. EST in Arlington, TX)
Line: Baylor by 17
John:
There are two things Big 12 football is beginning to become associated with: high-powered spread offenses and what could be termed “optional” defense at times. Texas Tech epitomizes both. Their currently 5th nationally averaging 397.3 passing yards per game while ranking 123rd in total defense (556.3 YPG).
It remains to be seen whether or not Baylor’s defense will shake off such a stereotype. Thought their currently 33rd in the nation in total defense, their strength of schedule ranks 141st in the Sagarin ratings, so the jury’s still out. Saturday’s game against a Red Raider offense that just put up 52 points against fellow Big 12 CFP aspirant TCU will go a long way to determine the Bears’ ability to slow down teams that can sling the ball around.
Much like last week in Lubbock when Texas Tech nearly upended the Horned Frogs, I’m anticipating big numbers through the air. TTU quarterback Patrick Mahomes and Baylor’s Seth Russell have combined for 25 touchdowns and seven interceptions in seven games this year. Expect more of the same in Arlington. Even though I had the Red Raiders pulling off the upset against TCU, I think the close loss sets them up for a hangover this time around.
Prediction: Baylor 59, Texas Tech 45
Yesh:
Texas Tech came oh so close to shocking TCU last week. TCU and Baylor are very similar, with unstoppable offenses and porous defenses. Baylor is better than Texas Tech, but this 17-point spread is way too high. Baylor almost always covers, but that’s a poor bet this game.
Prediction: Baylor 45, Texas Tech 41
Steen:
QB Patrick Mahomes heroic performance while nursing an injury put Texas Tech one play away from shocking a top 5 TCU team at home, but instead the Red Raider fans left deflated in what was one of the games of the year, a 55-52 shootout win for TCU. Now the Red Raiders face an equally explosive and speedy offense in Baylor, and their defense should be in for yet another long Saturday. Led by QB Seth Russell, Baylor has scored more than 50 points against three weak teams and is off to a 3-0 start, though this is their first legitimate opponent this season.
Russell has Shock Linwood and Corey Coleman among his available weapons, while you should watch out for Jakeem Grant and Justin Stockton when TTU has the ball on offense. This is a big test for Baylor, and I don’t see them covering this spread, but with that said I think the Baylor defense will end up coming up with more stops than TTU can manage, and thus that’ll be the game in what should be another thrilling Big 12 shootout.
Prediction: Baylor 56, Texas Tech 48
Mike:
Baylor’s defense isn’t nearly as good as TCU’s and Texas Tech had the upset in hand last week. Can the Red Raiders get over the emotional let-down of a near miss and go on a true road game and finally get the long awaited break through victory for Coach GQ (Kingsbury)? Baylor can still score with the best of them, but there’s a lot of ambient noise around this team. Texas Tech finally breaks through and Baylor gets stunned at home. I’ll go with the popular upset pick here.
Prediction: Texas Tech 59, Baylor 54
#13 Alabama at #8 Georgia (Saturday 10/3/15 3:30 P.M. EST in Athens, GA)
Line: Georgia by 2.5
John:
Here’s a mind-blowing fact about this game. It marks the first time Vegas has the Crimson Tide as an underdog since the 2009 SEC Championship game. Alabama would go on to beat Florida 32-13 that night en route to the first of three national titles under current head coach Nick Saban.
Georgia appears to have the advantage at virtually all the skill positions on offense. Quarterback Greyson Lambert hasn’t put up huge numbers, but situationally he’s one of the best passers in the nation as indicated by the fact he has the third-best Total QBR in the nation. Alabama’s Jake Coker needs to cut down on the mistakes if the Tide want to have any chance winning between the hedges and salvaging their season. They’ll also need to figure out how to stop Nick Chubb. The Bulldog running back can tie Herschel Walkers school record of 13-straight 100-yard rushing games this weekend. If there’s any unit that can spoil this milestone, it’s the Tide defensive front who are allowing a mere 56.75 yards on the ground, good enough for fourth best in FBS. If I bet college football for real, I’d avoid this game like the plague. What I will say, though, is that Dawg head coach Mark Richt has traditionally struggled in potentially program defining games like these.
Prediction: Alabama 26, Georgia 24
Yesh:
Alabama is an underdog for the first time in over five years. Last time, they won by three scores. The Tide’s defense seems stifling against the poorer offensive teams they’ve faced, but got beaten up by Ole Miss. Georgia doesn’t have the same passing attack that Ole Miss had, but they probably have enough to beat Alabama at home.
Prediction: Georgia 31, Alabama 21
Steen:
Alabama increasingly feels like an overrated team this season. Saban is a legendary coach and they always recruit well, but the QB play, whether it’s by Jake Coker or someone else has been abysmal for the Crimson Tide and their secondary likewise hasn’t seemed that sharp. Additionally, Lane Kiffin, and Saban’s game management was suspect in the close loss against Ole Miss at home.
The Tide can rely on their rushing game with Derrick Henry and Kenyan Drake as usual, and their defensive front seven is sharp, but Georgia seems just as talented as this Alabama team, and will have home field advantage at Sanford Stadium, one of the toughest places to play in the SEC.
Look for Nick Chubb, Sony Michel and Keith Marshall to outpace Henry/Drake in the running game, as Chubb makes his push for the Heisman in what could be a defining moment for his season, and though UGA QB Greyson Lambert isn’t a five-tool superstar, he’s efficient enough compared to Coker and is seemingly less likely to make mistakes. The Georgia defense is hard nosed as well and four straight routine wins for The Bulldogs have given them momentum in this one. I don’t really trust Mark Richt and his conservative run first style of play in big games like this, but I trust Lane Kiffin less, and with that in mind I have Georgia winning in what could be a rainy afternoon in Athens.
Prediction: Georgia 27, Alabama 17
Mike:
Last Word writer Mike Grey had a great article about this game being about two programs intersecting on opposite paths. It seems the narrative around Tuscaloosa is about a dynasty in decline and the talk in Athens about things finally coming together. There is no better was to validate this to see it unfold on the field. Georgia’s defense is underrated and their rushing attack might be too much for the Alabama defense over sixty minutes. If Greyson Lambert can make some clutch throws at the right time, this one will be one for the Dawgs.
Prediction: Georgia 24, Alabama 21
#6 Notre Dame at #12 Clemson (Saturday 10/3/15 8:00 P.M. EST in Clemson, SC)
Line: Clemson by 1.5
John:
These two schools have met twice all-time (1977, 1979) and the road team has won both contests. That bodes well for the Irish who travel to what should be a raucous Death Valley under the lights on Saturday night. Notre Dame continues to move forward despite the highly publicized season-ending injuries to plenty of prominent starters. Quarterback DeShone Kizer has filled in admirably for Malik Zaire but will get his biggest test yet in front of a loud and hostile Clemson crowd. His counterpart for the Tigers Deshaun Watson is currently top 20 nationally in both quarterback rating and Total QBR.
This game could come down to who can get the opposing offense off the field more frequently on third down. Both teams are among the best in the nation at opponents’ third down conversion percentage. In fact, Clemson has allowed just nine all season. I expect this game to live up to its billing as ABC’s featured prime-time showdown, with the Irish squeaking out a narrow win and keeping their CFP hopes alive.
Yesh:
Clemson struggled in their last game against Louisville, but that was a Thursday night on the road. They did well against Appalachian State, a pretty solid mid-major. Notre Dame is another plane of competition, though. I don’t think we’ve seen enough from Clemson to have confidence for them to beat the Irish at this point, even if Deshaun Watson is at his best.
Prediction: Notre Dame 34, Clemson 24
Steen:
The last time Clemson played a home game this big, against Florida State two years ago in primetime, they got run out of their own stadium before the half, and generally speaking Dabo Swinney and the Tigers have a habit of choking big games, especially if they get behind early and lose control of the game. With that in mind, I don’t really trust them against a battle tested Notre Dame team that is tough and has shown tremendous heart, even after being ravaged by injuries and playing a relatively difficult early schedule.
DeShaun Watson and Wayne Gallman, among others, are great for Clemson and they have speed on both sides of the ball but Notre Dame has beaten three power 5 teams already, QB DeShone Kizer continues to grow and mature into his role as starter, and C.J. Prosise has also performed well out of the backfield. That’s not to mention the leadership found with the Fighting Irish linebackers. Clemson is a trendy team that brings spark to their games, but Notre Dame seems like too much for them to chew right now and if they get off to a rough start, the Irish could embarrass them once again at home. Watson’s potentially poor decision making could lead to turnovers as well that would shift momentum.
Prediction: Notre Dame 38, Clemson 21
Mike:
Notre Dame is the surprise of the season, not because of how well they’ve played but because of how well they’ve overcome a multitude of key injuries. The Fighting Irish defense has been impressive, especially in their win against Georgia Tech – which I think will be a predictor for their performance against Clemson. The Tigers have flown relatively under the radar in the early season, and with the ACC race seemingly wide open with Florida State coming back to the pack, this is the first step for Clemson to reach the next level. Unfortunately for Palmetto players, the Notre Dame defense proves too good.
Prediction: Notre Dame 31, Clemson 23
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