Jacob deGrom’s 2016 stat line is seemingly impressive – the hurler has compiled a 3-1 record with a 1.99 ERA in four starts. But a deep examination reveals a bevy of potential long-term issues: lower velocity, health issues with his newborn son, and a lat injury have all plagued the All-Star in the early going. So, is it time to get concerned about Jacob deGrom?
To Worry…
deGrom is clearly operating with a lower velocity on his fastball than in seasons prior. In 2014, deGrom threw his fastball at an average velocity of 93.5 MPH. That median increased to 94.9 MPH last season. However, in 2016, deGrom’s average fastball velocity is down to 92.6 MPH.
Jacob deGrom’s velocity drop is a) Noticeable and b) Worrisome. That great autumn run took toll on arms
— Michael Powell (@powellnyt) May 6, 2016
This sudden drop in velocity could be credited to a variety of factors. deGrom threw 191 innings last year, his highest total ever. The most innings he tossed before that? Just 178.2 in 2014. And before that? A mere 135.2 innings pitched in 2013. It’s not outlandish to assume that the drastic increase in innings pitched has served as a detriment to the condition of deGrom’s arm. Pitching deep into Autumn, and at a more frequent rate than ever before, can take a real toll on a young arm.
Many observers have noticed a drop in deGrom’s arm slot when he delivers the ball. This could be a mechanical flaw that needs simple adjustments; or, perhaps it is compensation for a lat injury that landed him an abbreviated stint on the DL. Jacob claims to be fully healthy, but the alteration in his delivery might indicate otherwise. Most notably, in his last start on Thursday, deGrom’s fastballs were flat and lacked the abrupt snap for which he is known. San Diego hitters teed off on deGrom, tallying eight hits and three runs in just five innings.
Just as concerning for deGrom is his inability to strike hitters out. deGrom rose to stardom in the 2015 postseason as a power pitcher capable of sitting down any batter who came to the plate. But in 2016, deGrom has only sixteen strikeouts in 22.2 IP. Jacob deGrom cannot get hitters to swing and miss anymore.
Mental fatigue could also play a part in Jacob’s struggles. He and his wife, Stacy, welcomed their newborn son to the world in mid-April. Their child suffered breathing complications at birth and was treated for several days in a New York hospital. Fortunately, Jacob and Stacy’s son appears to be in much better shape, but it’s not too hard to see how this could wear down deGrom as a person, let alone as a pitcher.
Not to Worry…
Jacob deGrom is still getting hitters out.
Perhaps deGrom does not need the elevated velocity from which he benefited in 2015. It is entirely possible that deGrom can learn, and has learned, how to pitch to batters without overpowering them. His line drive percentage has actually decreased from a year ago – down to 18.8% from 20.9% in 2015. deGrom’s ground ball percentage has received a 6% increase from last season, meaning he is still forcing hitters to miss the barrel of the bat.
The most telling sign that deGrom is still elite: his 1.99 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. He is still not allowing many runs to cross the plate or letting runners reach base. At the end of the day, isn’t that a pitcher’s ultimate goal?
Sure, Jacob deGrom may not be the same overpowering force that he was in 2015. But pitchers can evolve and play to contact so long as they disrupt a hitter’s timing. deGrom’s soft ball percentage, which charts how often a pitcher forces a weakly hit ball, is almost identical to his 2015 mark. He is throwing his curveball more often in order to create a feeling of discomfort to whomever is in the box.
In early May, anything is possible. An entire summer (and hopefully Fall) will tell this year’s story of Jacob deGrom. The right-hander can still be a dominant pitcher, or he could fizzle out as batters adjust to his new tactics. That’s for deGrom to determine.
Sources: MLB.com, Fangraphs
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