With the dust now settled on the drawn out process of the World Cup draw, we can now start to take a dive into the groups to see exactly who we believe will be spending a long summer in Brazil next year and not booking the first plane home following the conclusion of the group stages.
GROUP A – BRAZIL, CROATIA, MEXICO, CAMEROON
With the hosts for next summer’s World Cup Finals being the first team selected and the only country (except France if you are of a suspicious volition) who already knew which group they would be in, the whole of Brazil can be very pleased with their three opponents. Croatia, after a good start to the qualifying campaign where they won 5 of their opening 6 matches, they then went so far off the boil that they lost home and away to the footballing might of Scotland before making it through a play off against Iceland to book their place on the plane. Mexico were another country who, after 6 wins from 6 during the first phase of an extremely weak group, they made extremely hard work of the second phase of a weak qualifying campaign, scoring just 7 goals in 10 matches, picking up just 2 victories (against Jamaica and Panama) on the way. Qualification was secured in a play off against New Zealand and Mexico will need to make the most of the conditions to see the second round. Making up the group are Cameroon and with just 8 goals in 6 group matches prior to a 4-1 aggregate play off win against Tunisia, I don’t see them causing too much trouble, though they do have history of an upset! The key match in the group for me will be when Croatia meet Mexico and whoever wins that will accompany Brazil into the second round.
Qualification:
1st: Brazil
2nd: Croatia
GROUP B – SPAIN, NETHERLANDS, CHILE, AUSTRALIA
With a rematch of the 2010 World Cup Final during next year’s group stage, this group will be extremely tough to progress for both Chile and Australia. There isn’t much that hasn’t been said in terms of praising Spain. Parts of the squad however are beginning to age together, but sadly for the rest of the footballing world, the next crop off the production line are seemingly straight out of the same mould. Not blowing teams out of the water in qualifying but instead just doing enough, Spain went undefeated, winning 6 and drawing away to France and inexplicably at home to Finland too. Defending their title is going to be a huge task and the Dutch will be looking to make things difficult in the group after dropping just two points through an admittedly weak qualifying campaign. The match between these two will be critical and I can see it being another tight encounter and quite probably a draw. Avoiding the usual rifts and rows that have littered tournaments in the past will be crucial to the Netherlands hopes of progressing to a meaningful level. Chile have proven themselves to be no pushover and with the exciting talent of Alexis Sanchez in attack, they will ask questions of teams, but with a poor defence, the two giants of the group will be too much for them to handle. Australia will make up the group and will also finish bottom after making heavy work of a poor Asian qualification campaign. Not enough goals and not enough quality is not a good mixture.
Qualification:
1st: Netherlands
2nd: Spain
GROUP C – COLOMBIA, GREECE, IVORY COAST, JAPAN
After finishing second to Argentina and having the best defensive record throughout the South American qualifying campaign, Colombia, the £50m-man Falcao and friends will fancy their chances of qualifying from a pretty evenly-matched group on South American soil. The notoriously tight defence of Greece will need to be at its most watertight in order for them to spend any longer than the group stage in Brazil as the attack is toothless at the top level. Ivory Coast will arrive with their hopes pinned to the performances of the Toure brothers (or maybe just Yaya) and the physical presence in attack of Didier Drogba and an impressive supporting cast of attacking talent, which will be enough to ensure qualification. Japan were another team to make qualification tougher than it should’ve been with 2 defeats and just a second-placed finish in the first stage of Asian qualification in a group consisting of Uzbekistan, Korea DPR and Tajikistan. They did top the second group stage of qualification, but if I am to back a team to make it beyond the group stages of a World Cup, I am looking for better than 2 draws against Australia. I see this group as being the closest in terms of parity of all eight groups.
Qualification:
1st: Colombia
2nd: Ivory Coast
GROUP D – URUGUAY, COSTA RICA, ENGLAND, ITALY
Termed the Group of Death in the English media, this says as much about their confidence in the squad as it does about the strength of the group. Italy will be tough opponents and one who will be disciplined at the back, controlled in possession but possibly a little light in attack, should the mercurial talents of Mario Balotelli fail to fire. With just 19 goals in 10 qualification matches, the current top scorer in Serie A Giuseppi Rossi will need to come to the party and share the burden. Uruguay, who finished in fourth place at the 2010 World Cup will fancy their chances of progressing on ‘home’ soil and with one of the hottest properties in world football in Luis Suarez spearheading an attack which also boasts the not-inconsiderable goalscoring talents of Edison Cavani and Diego Forlan. The defence however is just as leaky as their attack is potent which led them to 5th place in South American qualification campaign, meaning they had to get past Jordan in a play off to book their place at the finals. They did comfortably, but qualifying from the group next year won’t be quite so comfortable. One team definitely sitting a little uncomfortably following the group draw is Costa Rica. Long shots to progress with good reason, they did qualify second behind the USA and above the likes of Mexico, but a fourth place finish awaits them next summer. Onto England who are another team who will be sweating now almost as much as the players will be next June due to their inability to maintain possession at the top level. The group hasn’t been too kind and with conditions totally against what they are used to, the English will need to hold the ball better than they have been to conserve as much energy as possible, as energy levels will wilt faster the nation’s hopes if they are left chasing the ball around the sticky Amazon atmosphere. The squad is lacking the depth of quality options required and getting out of the group stage must be seen as a small victory, whilst progressing anywhere beyond the second round should be celebrated like a win.
Qualification:
1st: Italy
2nd: Uruguay
Please check back tomorrow when I will be analysing the remaining groups before then mapping out the rest of the tournament from the second round and onwards.
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