On Wednesday, Homer Bailey agreed to a six-year, $105 million contract with the Cincinnati Reds that includes a mutual option for a seventh year. Since the numbers were released for this deal, twitter and the baseball universe have been in a meltdown over a pitcher that had a 11-12 win-loss record securing that much money.
Its laughable really that here in 2014 the first thought people think of when talking about a pitchers performance is the meaningless win loss record. A stat that was introduced in the 1800’s should not be the benchmark for a pitchers performance in 2014. In every article written about Bailey today, they all first talked about the money, then talked about the win-loss record. Hilarious. I will never use the win-loss record to judge a pitcher, I think it is the most useless stat in sports, but that rant is for another time and another blog. So the question at hand, “Is Homer Bailey worth $105 Million?” The answer is yes, let me explain.
Homer Bailey is 27 years old, and entering the season with a career 4.25 ERA. He set highs in innings pitched (209) and strikeouts (199) last season and threw his second no-hitter in two years while pitching on a pretty decent Reds pitching staff. I won’t get into his career win-loss record because that means nothing to me, however I will dive into his secondary numbers which tell the true story about Homer Bailey and just why he is worth that mega extension he got today.
In 2013, Bailey proved there is more to him than a win loss record, posing a 3.49 ERA, 3.31 FIP and most impressively putting up a 3.7 WAR which is tremendous from a starting pitcher. In comparison to American League Cy Young Winner Max Scherzer, who went 2.90 ERA , 2.74 FIP and a 6.4 WAR. Many project that Scherzer will receive a contract well above the $220 million dollar mark so why it is so hard to accept that Bailey is worth $105 million? The numbers are right there in front of you, they don’t lie.
It has been estimated that every 1 WAR should be worth 4-5 million dollars in that players contract, so Bailey who posted a near 4 WAR will easily be worth the $17.5 million he will make per year with the Reds, and might actually seem like a bargain in a couple years. One key aspect of this deal is that Bailey is entering the prime of his baseball career and has gotten better every year since he has been in the big leagues. Every one of his stats including the base stats and the advanced metrics have suggested growth in every area of Bailey’s overall game.
In 2011 Bailey went 4.43 ERA, 4.06 FIP, and a 1.3 WAR, in 2012 he improved to 3.68 ERA, 3.97 FIP and 2.5 WAR. On top of that his HR/9 have vastly improved every year – 1.23 (2011), 1.13 (2012) and 0.86 (2013). His K/9 rate has also improved every year, 7.23 (2011), 7.27 (2012) and 8.57 (2013). Bailey has also been better about stranding runners as he has improved to a 73.7% in 2013 from the 71.2% he had in 2011.
Fastball location has also been a nice improving spot in Bailey’s game since he made it to the big leagues full-time, This has been evident in many of his secondary stats. First off his BABIP has dropped every year he has been in the majors and he has never had a BABIP above .300 over his three year starting gig and most importantly his HR/FB rate has dropped 1.5 pts since his 2011 season. Velocity is also up quite a bit as he averaged 92.2 MPH in 2011 and bumped it up to 94.1 MPH in 2013.
Homer Bailey is not Max Scherzer, he’s not as good as David Price or Clayton Kershaw, he might not even be as good as Mat Latos, but there is no denying that his stock is on the rise and he is a comfortable low end number one, high end number two starter in the National League and may be even better in the years to come.
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