Earlier this season, San Francisco Giants’ manager Bruce Bochy announced that pitcher Tim Lincecum would no longer be in the starting rotation and instead would come out of the bullpen. This may seem like a shock to some considering Lincecum is a two-time Cy Young Award winner and owner of one of the year’s three no-hitters and a two year, $35 million contract. However, it’s not all that surprising.
This Giants made the same move prior to the 2012 Playoffs, relegating Lincecum to a relief role, and he performed exceptionally well. He pitched 17.2 innings to the tune of a 2.55 ERA and struck out nearly 30% of the batters he faced. Numbers like that win you a Cy Young Award. However, during the 2012 regular season, he had a 5.18 ERA and accumulated only .7 Wins Above Replacement.
This season has been even worse. Lincecum has been below replacement level thanks to a 4.27 FIP. He has gotten quite unlucky in allowing a 13.8 HR/FB% although; but he still certainly is not the same pitcher he was in 2008 and 2009 when he accumulated 14.6 WAR and had sub-3.00 FIPs. The main reason for this decline in performance has been his inability to strike batters out. In 2008 and 2009 Lincecum struck out 28.6% and 28.8% of the batters he faced. In 2014, that number is down to 20.4%. He is still walking the same proportion of batters, but just not striking them out.
A look at Lincecum’s plate discipline numbers offers good insight. In 2008-09, 50% of his pitches were in the strike zone. This year that number is down to 41.8%. Lincecum knows his stuff isn’t as good, so he isn’t throwing pitches where batters can hit them. However, even when he throws pitches out of the zone, batters are still making contact on 63.5% of them. In 2008-09, those numbers were under 50%. Higher contact rates mean that batters are more likely to reach base and move runners around to score runs. Lincecum is throwing more pitches out of the zone now, but those pitches still are not good enough to get by major league hitters.
But why aren’t Lincecum’s pitches as good as they were earlier in his career? The main reason is that he has lost velocity on his fastball. In 2008-2009 he averaged over 93 mph on his fastball. This year, that number is down to 89.7 mph. That 4 mph drop is not insignificant. Pitchers do certainly lose velocity on their pitches as they age, but some are better at adapting. Additionally, an extensive study by Mike Fast showed that a 1 mph increase in velocity decreases run values by .24 runs1. That, too, is not insignificant. As Lincecum’s fastball velocity has decreased, his FIPs have responded by increasing.
Year Fastball Velocity (mph) FIP Fastball wRC+ Allowed
2008 94.1 2.62 101
2009 92.4 2.34 116
2010 91.3 3.15 130
2011 92.3 3.17 108
2012 90.4 4.18 112
2013 90.2 3.74 169
2014 89.7 4.27 163
Additionally, batters are teeing off on his fastball now. Whereas hitters used to be league average hitters against his fastballs, they all now become 2012 Miguel Cabrera’s with a wRC+ of near 170.
However, Lincecum is a smart man and has adapted. He has decreased his fastball usage from near 60% to 46% in 2014 and has upped his slider usage from nearly non-existent in 2008 to throwing it 22% of the time in 2014. However, this doesn’t seem to have solved his issues, presumably because he can’t throw sliders every pitch, so hitters just wait for Lincecum to get behind and throw a fastball.
Now, getting back to his move to the bullpen. This may end up being a very good move by the Giants because it may help Lincecum’s velocity. As a whole, relievers have a higher average velocity than starters. The reasoning behind this is that relievers can come out and throw at 100% for 20 pitchers or so and then their night is done. Starters, on the other hand, must pace themselves and have to have something left in the tank come the later innings.
This plot from BrooksBaseball demonstrates this thinking with Lincecum. His fastball velocity steadily decreases throughout the game, going from a peak of 91 mph in the 1st inning all the way down to sub-90 mph in the later innings. If the Giants can keep Lincecum fresh and only use him for an inning at a time, he may be able to be a lot more effective. However, there is one note of caution with bringing Lincecum in as a reliever. With the bases empty, Lincecum has held batters to a .315 wOBA. However, with runners on base, batters have a wOBA of .380. This is concerning for a relief pitcher who may be brought in after the starter has struggled and has put men on base. Lincecum then may not be as effective.
We can’t change the past: Tim Lincecum has fallen hard from his Cy Young winning ways due to his decline in fastball velocity and is now a $17 million reliever. However, let’s wait and see if he can rediscover some of the magic from his 2012 postseason and become a dominant reliever down the stretch in 2014.
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