It’s here, MLS’ dream Western Conference Final: LA-Seattle. Bruce Arena-Sigi Schmid. Lando and Robbie against Oba and Deuce. Open up another tab, go to youtube, and play Carmina Burana or Flight of the Valkyries while you read this. Kim Kardashian wanted to break the internet; this playoff series is going to break MLS. And if it doesn’t, there’s still the mayhem that is the Expansion Draft, but I digress.
Let’s break down the most significant factors for Sunday:
10. Fresh legs:
Both teams had players called up to international duty this past week. DeAndre Yedlin was with the US national team. Robbie Keane was with Ireland. AJ DeLaGarza was called up for just his third cap with Guam. All three players were released after playing over the weekend and will thus have a full week’s rest for the first leg. This is particularly important for Keane, as he has been nursing a hamstring injury. All other players will have had two weeks to rest and get healthy. Both teams should have their after burners ready.
9. LA attacking style:
As I’ve argued before, this post-Beckham version of the Galaxy is at their best when they are playing with the ball, stretching the field, and getting numbers forward smartly. The counter attack is still available, but it’s no longer their go-to nor their greatest strength. The Galaxy came out with a bunker-and-counter strategy in the first leg against RSL and were lucky to get out of Rio Tinto Stadium at 0-0. I expect LA to come out with their hair on fire. They will need to win the possession game and be proactive, especially since they are at home. A 0-0 draw isn’t bad, but even just a one goal lead would be a noticeable cushion for the second leg in Seattle.
8. The Galaxy’s back four:
Bruce Arena has a number of options and styles at the back. Robbie Rogers and Omar Gonzalez are locks at LB and right CB. The others are more interesting. Arena could go with DeLaGarza or Dan Gargan at RB. DeLaGarza and Gonzalez have been one of the best CB parings in MLS in recent years, but DeLaGarza proved much more effective out wide than Gargan against RSL. In the second leg against Salt Lake, DeLaGarza was moved out wide and Leonardo came in at CB. Leonardo has been on good form recently, but suffered a hamstring injury in the first half of the last game. Arena said that Leonardo is a “candidate to play” on Sunday.
Even if he can’t go, Gargan can still be effective, just not as good as DeLaGarza. Tommy Meyer can come in as well. While he has played sparingly this year, he did play through the entire 2012 playoffs, including MLS Cup. In short, Arena has options. It’s all going to come down to who’s played well in training this week and Arena’s balance of having a taller but less experienced CB in or having more contribution offensively from the RB. We won’t know if Leo is available until close to kick off. I trust Arena and Co. will be prepared regardless.
7. Non-star scoring contributions:
We all know Donovan-Keane and Martins-Dempsey are going to be major factors in this series. But both teams have decent supporting casts in the attack. LA has Gyasi Zardes and even Alan Gordon off the bench. Zardes has not scored since the end of September but has still been dangerous, helped create chances, and made opposing defenses work. He is going to have to make a contribution on this series for LA to advance, be it a goal, assist, or a key pass. Gordon is the Galaxy’s closer. His intensity and physical play will be a factor. He might not need to score in this series, but if he is subbed in, he will need to make an impact physically on a tired Seattle back line.
Seattle has an arsenal of attacking support. Yedlin and Lamar Neagle get involved in the attack with regularity. While they have not seen regular playing time of late, Chad Barrett, Andy Rose, and Kenny Cooper can all come off the bench and contribute. Yedlin getting forward will be as crucial if not more so than LA’s RB getting forward. If Neagle does not start, his speed will be a factor on the counter late in the game.
At some point in this game, a role player is going to have an opportunity to make a play, possibly off the bench late if the game gets stretched. Their execution (or lack there of) could decide the outcome of the game. Just ask Mike Magee or Marco Pappa how much a glue player can affect a huge game.
6. Seattle’s mental fortitude:
The Galaxy have every reason to be wary of the 2014 edition of the Seattle Sounders. This team turned the corner in the Supporters’ Shield showdown. While not invincible, this team finally got the best of LA when the pressure was on. I think they’ve turned the corner mentally. There’s a belief and a focus where there has not been in years past. While they did not look great at times against Dallas, they finished the game. They didn’t wilt when they went down 1-0 on the road. The Seattle Sounders will not go quietly. If they are to be beaten, it’s going to have to be straight up, not just by out-composing them.
5. Midfield personnel decisions:
This might be the most interesting unknown going into the match. LA will look to stretch the field and replicate their offense from the RSL game. I think Stefan Ishizaki gets the start over Baggio Husidic at RM, as he’ll spread the game out and he’s combined nicely on the right with Gargan and DeLaGarza this year. Arena could go with Husidic to then give the RB free reign to go forward.
Seattle has more of a conundrum/options in the middle. Much of the player selection and tactics are going to depend on one player’s availability (more on that later). Brad Evans and Neagle can both play on the outside. Pappa has been the major spark out of the midfield, with both goals in the last game of the regular season to clinch the Shield. Gonzalo Pineda has been solid in the center. Who Schmid selects and where he puts them will depend on how conservative he wants to play. Where does he draw the line between defensive shape and speed and skill going forward? I have a hunch that Evans starts on the right and plays centrally, allowing Yedlin to combine. I think Pappa has played well enough of late to start. He’ll play in front of Leo Gonzalez who will not go as forward as Yedlin does. I think this pushes Neagle to the bench just to have some speed as a sub. Neagle gets off the bench if the game isn’t going well and Seattle is chasing a goal.
4. Seattle bunker and counter:
I thoroughly expect Seattle to come out organized defensively. They did so and executed it well in the second to last regular season game in LA. They’ll concede possession and play on the counter. Look for Yedlin to get on the run along with Pappa or Neagle on the other side. This is so high on the list not because the decision to play this way is in doubt, but because how well they execute it will be significant. They cannot make defensive mistakes. They will need to be able to release pressure on the back line when they do go forward without stretching out too much.
3. Risk losing to try and win:
As the game progresses, both teams are going to have to decide if and when to pack it in and accept the result or force the issue at the risk of worsening their current position. As the home team, the onus falls on L.A. Any draw that is not 0-0 is a psychological win for Seattle. Considering the turf, the crowd, and inclimate weather that awaits in Seattle, I believe LA needs a positive result in this game. Halftime adjustments and substitutions are going to be key. Does Arena risk it in the 85th minute to try and get a lead at the risk of conceding?
2. The Stars:
Keane and Martins are MVP candidates. Donovan and Dempsey are two the best attackers the United States has ever produced. The duo that shows up more in this series is probably going to win. Put the team on your shoulders and make the big play at the critical juncture. Need I say more?
1. Ozzie Alonso’s health:
Ozzie Alonso went down late in the home leg against Dallas. While reports out of Seattle are optimistic that he could play, much like Leonardo, we’re not going to know anything until game time. Alonso covers so much ground defensively for Seattle. He might be their most irreplaceable player in the sense that their bench does not have a capable backup. Yes, Dempsey and Martins are superior players to Cooper and Barrett, but those two aren’t completely incompetent. They also aren’t as inexperienced as Micheal Azira (Alonso’s possible replacement, with only 14 appearances in MLS).
Alonso is the first shield to the back line. We saw what L.A. did to Kyle Beckerman. While I think Seattle will be able to handle that pressure better than RSL did, Alonso is as critical if not more critical than Beckerman is to his team defensively. It’s hard to imagine Seattle getting a result in this game without their rock in the midfield. Even if he does play, how much will the hamstring hamper him? This is why the availability and fitness of Ozzie Alonso could be a deciding factor in Leg 1 of the Western Conference Finals.
Disagree with my list or my order? Hit me up on twitter or comment in the section below.
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