2022 American League Cy Young Race

The 2022 American League Cy Young Debate

The 2022 AL Cy Young race is coming down to two very different pitchers whose numbers are very similar. These two pitchers are 39-year-old Justin Verlander and 26-year-old Dylan Cease. Both are the aces for their respective teams, and have been the best pitchers in the AL all season long. The Houston Astros hold the best record in the league at 78–45. Meanwhile, the Chicago White Sox are clinging to life in wild card contention with a record of 62–59. They are both at, or near, the top of many statistical categories. While others such as Shane McClanahan, Kevin Gausman, and Shohei Ohtani have had fantastic seasons, they just don’t match Verlander or Cease’s level of success. Let’s get into this great debate.

The Cy Young Case for Justin Verlander

Let’s start with the elder statesman in this debate. In his 17th season and coming off Tommy John surgery, Verlander is having a very similar season to the one that won him the 2011 AL MVP. That year, he went 24–5 with a 2.40 ERA, 2.99 FIP, and 250 strikeouts in 251 innings. So far in 2022, Verlander is 15–3 with a 1.95 ERA, 2.89 FIP, and 138 strikeouts in 143 innings. While he won’t match that 250-inning threshold, most of his numbers this year look even better than in 2011. Verlander’s average fastball this year clocks in at 95 mph, which is incredibly similar to his 95 mph from 2011. All told, he is having a remarkable season. Time to look at where Verlander’s stats rank amongst all qualified American League pitchers.

1.95 ERA (1^st)

198 ERA+ (1^st)

4.3 fWAR (2^nd)

15 Wins (1^st)

143.0 IP (6^th)

0.76 HR/9 (6^th)

2.89 FIP (5^th)

0.881 WHIP (2^nd)

5.52 K/BB (4^th)

For a 39-year-old just coming off Tommy John surgery, these are some impressive numbers. It will be hard for voters to overlook a win-loss record like that along with his superb ERA and WHIP figures.

The Cy Young Case for Dylan Cease

Dylan Cease has been on the rise for years now. This is his fourth season in the majors, and he’s shown much improvement with each passing season. This is reflected by his ERA totals which have been 5.79, 4.01, 3.91, and now 2.09. Cease has some of the best stuff in the game, with his fastball spin, velocity, and curveball spin all rating in the 80^th percentile or better. Cease led the AL with 12.28 K/9 in 2021, and is leading the league again this year with 11.99 K/9. What Cease has that Verlander doesn’t have is the strikeouts. Younger voters might look at this as a reflection that Cease has been more dominant whereas Verlander has relied more on upon his fielders. Let’s look at the numbers on the season for Cease.

2.09 ERA (2^nd)

191 ERA+ (2^nd)

3.5 fWAR (5^th)

11.99 K/9 (1^st)

12 Wins (t-2^nd)

0.74 HR/9 (5^th)

2.88 FIP (4^th)

178 K (2^nd)

As the numbers show, Cease has been a top-tier pitcher in the American League this season. The only drawback to his case is the number of walks he has given up. Cease’s 58 walks and rate of 3.91 BB/9 lead the American League by a pretty wide margin. Despite this, Cease still owns a great 1.167 WHIP. His 6.6 H/9 is narrowly behind Verlander’s 6.4 H/9. He makes up for the walks in his by striking out batters, and not allowing many hits, or home runs, which is why his FIP is also right in line with Verlander’s.

Verdict: Justin Verlander

It is currently too close to call, but it looks like Justin Verlander might be in line for his third career Cy Young award. Verlander has the edge over Cease in more traditional statistics such as wins, ERA, WHIP, and innings pitched. He also has the edge over Cease in both versions of WAR. Cease’s numbers are very similar to that of Verlander’s, and he has a lot more strikeouts. Cease’s 19 starts of 1 or 0 earned runs allowed bests Verlander’s total of 15. On the whole, they are very close and both are likely to get numerous first-place votes.

However, the biggest difference comes down to innings pitched. As it currently stands, Verlander has pitched ten more innings than Cease. That lead could easily get to 15 or 20 innings by the end of the season if Cease continues his issues with walking batters. This is a small difference that could make or break the American League Cy Young Race.

Final Thoughts

Shane McClanahan looks like the clear third-place finisher in the American League Cy Young race. Any type of drop-off from Verlander or Cease would propel McClanahan into the top two. Kevin Gausman, Shohei Ohtani, Shane Bieber, and Nestor Cortes are sure to get Cy Young votes, as well. At the end of the day, Verlander and Cease are both great candidates to win the American League Cy Young award. Ultimately, voters might be too impressed with the level that the 39-year-old Verlander is pitching at to not vote for him.

Main Photo:
Embed from Getty Images

Players Mentioned:

Justin Verlander, Dylan Cease, Shane McClanahan, Kevin Gausman, Shohei Ohtani, Shane Bieber, Nestor Cortes