Opening Day signals the start of a new year. Teams around the league place hope and dreams in what the future may hold. Perhaps no team has more hope at this point than the 2023 Atlanta Braves. A radically chaotic 2022 saw the team come from behind to win its fifth straight NL East title. Midway through the season, the Braves were down by 10.5 games to the New York Mets. Most declared the division’s fate to be sealed. Indeed, in many eyes, the Braves could not return from such a deficit. Utilizing all the skills in one’s clubhouse to return to competition after suffering such an enormous setback is the equivalent of climbing Mount Everest. It simply doesn’t happen…at least, not without diligence and courage. These two things the Braves had in droves and helped spur them to a title.
Now, the 2023 Atlanta Braves look to cement their legacy one more time. To do so, they will need better campaigns from some of their veterans and breakouts from some of their youngsters. Today, we will be examining three players that, in this writer’s opinion, are due. They each had their struggles during 2022, but could rapidly change people’s perspectives with how they play this season. No, they are not all rookies. Some of the names may prick at the brain and shower it with shock and surprise. Nonetheless, they are candidates and the Braves’ chances of winning a World Series title could hinge upon their performances. Without further ado, let’s go ahead and dive right in.
2023 Atlanta Braves Breakout Candidates
Matt Olson
Matt Olson came to the Braves in the 2022 offseason after Freddie Freeman went to the Los Angeles Dodgers. To say that Olson had big shoes to fill is an understatement. For, after all, Freeman had been the Braves first baseman for well over a decade. He is the 12th greatest player in franchise history by WAR. However, times change, and with Freeman gone, Olson became one of the de facto faces of the franchise. While his first year as a Brave didn’t go terribly as a whole, there were times when he disappeared. Now, on the positive side, he hit 34 homers, drove in 100+ runs, and posted a 3.4 WAR. Then there were swaths where he’d go hitless. In fact, from August 2 through the end of the year, he hit a mere .218 (48-for-220) with 60 strikeouts.
However, this is what makes him a prime candidate to break out this season. Now that Freeman’s firmly entrenched in California, Olson can truly burst forth. His Spring Training has shown all the hallmarks of excellence, as he’s homered eight times and driven in 15 runs. Not only that, but some of his more advanced stats from 2022 speak to potential success. His Hard Hit percentage (50.9) was in the top four percent of the league. Couple that with an Average Exit Velocity in the 97th percentile and you’ve got the makings of something great. If he can lessen his strikeout percentage and find a way to work around his trouble with curveballs and sliders, Olson could have a campaign that’s much more like himself this season.
Eddie Rosario
Another veteran that could impact the 2023 Atlanta Braves in a big way is Eddie Rosario. Last season, vision issues and constant problems limited the 2021 NLCS MVP to 80 games. During that time, he slashed .212/.259/.328 with a .587 OPS, 53 hits, and only five homers. Now that his eyes have been properly attended to, Rosario has an opportunity at redemption. It’s quite obvious that he has the talent to do so. It’s simply a matter of finding consistency, both in playing time and in production. His recent time with team Puerto Rico had its ups and downs. However, the two home runs Rosario did hit during the World Baseball Classic were laser beams. Perhaps his swing timing and barrel rate will both spike in the upcoming campaign.
In 2021, Rosario had his greatest overall success against breaking balls. He hit .296 with a .340 wOBA and a solid .496 slugging percentage. Now, granted, he was limited in his playing time in 2022. However, his performance against this type of pitch fell dramatically. In total, his average against breaking pitches was .152 and his wOBA .169. In order to have the type of comeback, breakout season that the Braves are looking for, this must be addressed. In the past, Rosario has had terrific success in this area. His best season against breaking pitches, outside of ’21, was 2017, when he hit .286. If he can get back to some of those numbers, then he could play a critical role in the outfield for the 2023 Atlanta Braves.
Spencer Strider
“Wait,” you say, “Spencer Strider? The player who had, arguably, the biggest breakout season in Braves franchise history? That Spencer Strider?” Yes, believe it or not, that very same flamethrower. Everyone was severely impressed with how Strider did in 2022. His statistics were some of the best, not only among rookie hurlers but for the entire game. He finished second to fellow Brave Michael Harris II in Rookie of the Year voting. His 202 strikeouts were sixth in the National League. He had a higher K/9 rate than Carlos Rodon, Gerrit Cole, and Shohei Ohtani. His fWAR of 4.9 was the highest among any rookie pitcher in baseball and was in the top 10 overall.
So, after all that success, the scary thing is that Strider has the potential to be even better. According to Baseball Savant, Strider had the fifth-best four-seam fastball in baseball last year (run value: -20). The bulk of his devastating force comes from this pitch. However, he also has a solid slider, which ranked within the top 50. His issues come when he tries to incorporate his changeup, which was 218th in the league. If he can continue to work on diversifying his pitch portfolio, his legitimate Cy Young candidacy becomes even more so. Should the opposite occur, then he does stand a small chance at becoming somewhat one-dimensional. Look for the former to happen and for 2023 to be even better for Strider.
Main photo credit: Kim Klement-USA Today Sports
Players Mentioned:
Matt Olson, Freddie Freeman, Eddie Rosario, Spencer Strider, Michael Harris II, Carlos Rodon, Gerrit Cole, Shohei Ohtani
