The first domino has fallen. The Pittsburgh Pirates shipped Carlos Santana off to the Milwaukee Brewers on Thursday afternoon for a lottery ticket prospect. These occurrences have become commonplace for the Pittsburgh Baseball Club as they’ve often been a bottom-feeding team. With Santana gone and not too many big-time assets to deal from, could a David Bednar trade be on the horizon?
Bednar rumors began flying more rampantly Thursday following the Santana news. With the Pirates clearly out of contention, they will be selling off some assets. Bednar represents their biggest trade chip outside of Mitch Keller. Both of these guys are good gets for a team in contention right now.
There is a lot to unpack in such a trade. Bednar has three seasons of team control left after 2023. At just 28-years old, Bednar is in the prime of his career and has evolved into one of the best closers in the game. If you haven’t heard much about him, it is because the Pirates haven’t done a great job of getting the ball to him this season. Much of the bullpen in front of his faltered. Bednar went an entire month – April 29th to May 30th – without a save.
This season, Bednar sports a 1.35 ERA across 40 innings of work. He’s converted 20-of-21 save chances this season despite the Pirates’ inability to get him the ball more with a ninth-inning lead. Bednar made his second-straight all-star apperance despite not making the initial roster. He earned a spot after Clayton Kershaw dropped out with an injury.
With the Pirates out of contention in 2023, what should they do in regards to a Bednar trade?
#Dbacks are reportedly “heavily in” on David Bednar according to Gambo.
— Alex D’Agostino (@AlexDagAZ) July 27, 2023
If Pirates Internally Plan To Contend in 2024…
They should absolutely keep Bednar unless a team blows them away. It is rumored that the Arizona Diamondbacks are “heavily in” on the 29-year old. Arizona has a solid pool of prospects to offer up to the Pirates and General Manager Ben Cherington has dealt with them in the past when he sent Starling Marte to the desert in his first trade in Pittsburgh.
With Bednar gauging trade interest from multiple teams, the Pirates have to do their due diligence and listen. Unless someone comes along with a haul, I believe they should hold on to Bednar if they anticipate a 2024 return to contention. Finding elite closers in baseball is not an easy thing to do. The Pirates scooped one up in Bednar when they sent Joe Musgrove to the San Diego Padres way-back-when.
If the Pirates do a better job of building their bullpen this off-season, they could find a better bridge to Bednar. Relying on your starters to go five-or-six innings and then build a good setup tandem to get it to Bednar would be a solid plan. Good teams are always on the hunt for an elite closer. The Pirates would already have one built in with the right-hander.
Pirates are getting a lot of hits on Hill, Bednar, Keller and Holderman
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) July 27, 2023
If Pirates Don’t Plan to Contend until 2025…
Now things would get a little more interesting. If you plan on wasting another year of Bednar’s prime, then actual trade chatter may commence.
Bednar’s three additional years of team control would be a massive sticking point for the Pirates. If they’re going to give a commodity like that away, they’d better command a haul in return. The reliever market is very volatile depending on how many late-inning arms are out there and the quality of them.
Reynaldo Lopez came off the board on Wednesday night. Jordan Hicks could potentially be moved if contract talks don’t move over the next few days. Scott Barlow is an intriguing bullpen candidate. Bednar ranks up there with all of those names and, due to his control, could be the most expensive piece on the market.
An acquiring team would be getting a reliever that has had a cumulative of 2.14 in 144 appearances since the start of the 2021 season. He’s converted 42-of-49 saves in his three seasons in the big leagues. There is no doubt he can be a championship team’s ninth-inning guy.
Ultimately, the Pirates will likely keep both Bednar and Keller. They’re pieces of the puzzle that a team like the Pirates can’t afford to trade for when they finally hit that contention point. They have them in-house and it would take one whopping offer to pry Bednar away in a trade.
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Photo Credit- Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
Players Mentioned- Carlos Santana, David Bednar, Mitch Keller, Clayton Kershaw, Starling Marte, Joe Musgrove, Reynaldo Lopez, Jordan Hicks, Scott Barlow
