Just as many expected heading into this season, the New York Mets are playing meaningful August games this week. But who would have expected the importance of these games to revolve around the Mets’ 2024 draft pick rather than a 2023 playoff spot?
By exceeding the luxury tax by more than $40 million this season, the Mets will have a draft pick pushed back 10 spots as punishment. This happened to New York’s first-round selection this past July, although many experts feel the Mets got a steal in shortstop Colin Houck. However, if the Mets’ 2024 first-round pick falls within the first six picks, the team’s second-round selection, not their first, gets pushed back 10 spots. The team entered Tuesday with the ninth-worst record in MLB, half a game ahead of the Detroit Tigers and a full game in front of the Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals.
Luckily for the Mets, they are now hosting the Pirates for three games. That series began with a 7-2 Mets win. Then, the squad travels to St. Louis for a four-game set against the Cardinals to close the week. After a tough weekend against the Atlanta Braves, the Mets have a golden chance to put the organization in a good spot by having another awful week. Just as we all expected.
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Mets Playing Meaningful Games This Week
What to Watch For From the Pirates
The Pirates started the season strong but have since crashed to Earth. Pittsburgh dropped two of three this weekend to the Cincinnati Reds, but split a four-game series against Atlanta to start the week. While another sub-.500 season is likely, the organization has seen many young players take a step forward this year.
Former 2022 first-overall pick Henry Davis debuted in June and started strong. He hit .286 with a .835 OPS and four homers in his first 28 games. Since then, he has struggled, hitting just .137 with one home run over his next 19 games. Pittsburgh has Davis, who was a catcher throughout the minors, manning right field. His -4 Outs Above Average indicates his struggles at the new position.
Mets fans should also look out for former farmhand Endy Rodriguez. New York signed Rodriguez as an international free agent in July 2018 and he impressed many with his athleticism. The Pirates acquired the switch-hitting catcher in a three-team trade that sent Joey Lucchesi to New York. Rodriguez took off in the Pirates system and made many top-100 prospects lists.
Endy Rodriguez with a stand up double off of Spencer Strider
100.4 MPH exit velocity, .520 xBA, 374 feet, HR in 10/30 ballparks pic.twitter.com/cKUbLcr0c8
— Platinum Ke’Bryan (@PlatinumKey13) August 7, 2023
The Pirates called him up around the same time as Davis, and he has held his own. His .433 SLG has helped him put up a respectable .753 OPS. He’s also walked at a great 10.7 percent clip, though his 30.7 percent strikeout clip must improve.
Lastly, the Mets will face another Pirates top prospect on Monday in starter Quinn Priester. The 22-year-old pitched in 18 Triple-A games this season with a 4.31 ERA and 84 strikeouts in 87 2/3 innings. Priester has struggled since being called up in July. In five starts, he has an 8.75 ERA and has put up a below-average 17.4 percent strikeout rate and 13 percent walk rate.
What to Watch For From the Cardinals
This weekend’s matchup between the Cardinals and Mets is a battle between two of the most disappointing teams this season. St. Louis has not had a losing record or finished in last place in the division for many decades. Both can happen this season.
Adam Wainwright will start the opening game of the series on Thursday. He needs two more wins to reach 200 for his career, but has performed like a guy approaching his 42nd birthday. He’s given up at least six earned runs in four of his last seven starts. This includes his last start against the Royals in which he allowed eight earned runs in just one inning. The Mets will look to take advantage of the aging Cardinals legend. Hopefully, that takes some of the sting from 2006 away.
In game two, the Mets will face old friend Steven Matz. The 32-year-old was one of the league’s worst starters earlier this year and earned a demotion to the bullpen. However, he has turned his season around since returning to the rotation on July 9. In seven starts during that span, Matz has a 1.86 ERA in 38 2/3 innings with 38 strikeouts against seven walks. The Mets have struggled against lefties this year, so Matz has a good chance to continue his dominance.
After six innings on 94 pitches, Steven Matz is likely done for the night.
He was really solid, again, for St. Louis. Two earned runs, four hits, five K’s, zero (!) walks. Just a completely different pitcher since he’s returned to the rotation.
— Katie Woo (@katiejwoo) August 13, 2023
2024 MLB Draft Importance
Thanks to the Draft Lottery, the Mets are not guaranteed a top-six pick if they finish with one of the six worst records. The sixth-worst record has just a 53.3 percent chance of landing a top-six pick. However, these are better odds than if the Mets finished with a record outside the six worst. Landing such a high pick months after acquiring several top prospects will continue helping the team infuse the farm system in a short period.
The Mets’ games this week can put the organization in a great situation next June. The team recently lost six games in a week to the Kansas City Royals and Baltimore Orioles. Having a similar week against the Pirates and Cardinals can catapult the Mets to a good position when it comes to draft odds.
Photo Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Players Mentioned: Colin Houck, Henry Davis, Endy Rodriguez, Joey Lucchesi, Quinn Priester, Adam Wainwright, Steven Matz
