Brandon Nimmo made a name for himself thanks to his elite eye at the plate. In fact, his ability to control the strike zone led the New York Mets to take him 13th overall in the 2011 MLB Draft. In the decade-plus since that draft, the Mets have seen various versions of Nimmo. His career has evolved from a potential bust to a useful fourth outfielder to an everyday player and finally to a crucial everyday piece on a 101-win team.
While he developed into a star, Nimmo made a decision to sacrifice some of his on-base skills in favor of power. This season, the 30-year-old has already set a career-high in homers (22) and is on pace to do the same for RBI and doubles. However, his OBP currently sits at .360, much lower than the .393 mark he set in his first six seasons combined.
Which Version of Brandon Nimmo Do the Mets Need?
An interesting aspect of Nimmo’s evolution is that metrics like wRC+, OPS+, and oWAR indicate that Nimmo’s production isn’t necessarily better or worse. From 2021 to 2023, he produced a wRC+ of 136, 133, and 127, respectively. OPS+ from these years tell a similar story (131, 103, 124).
However, in these same years, his OBP has gone from .401 to .367 to .360 while his SLG went from .437 to .433 to .455. In this span, his on-base abilities were elite at his best and really good at his worst. In the same span, he was an average slugger at his worst and slightly above average at his best. While Nimmo’s overall production level has remained around the same, the way in which he produces has changed.
SECOND OF THE NIGHT FOR BRANDON NIMMO! pic.twitter.com/jJ6cTmb94Y
— SNY (@SNYtv) September 6, 2023
It’s fair to wonder whether the Mets are better off with Nimmo slugging .450 or getting on base 40 percent of the time. His monetary value will depend on the relationship between his defensive position and offensive profile. However, his value in terms of team dynamic will rely on factors like his teammates and how he ages.
The Case for the Version of Nimmo that Slugs
One argument that focuses on extra-base hits is that slugging percentage correlates to runs-per-game better than on-base percentage does. With this in mind, Nimmo hitting more homers should be more beneficial for New York’s overall offense than him walking or settling for weak-contact singles.
Additionally, players typically hit for less power as they age. Nimmo turns 31 around Opening Day next year and only has two or three more years left in his prime, assuming he stays healthy. Traits related to power, like bat speed and strength, decrease as a player ages.
On the other hand, having a good eye at the plate ages well. It’s a skill many believe players are just born with and is tough to develop. Someone can gain strength in the weight room or work on bat speed in the cage. But it’s immensely tougher to greatly improve one’s strike zone awareness.
Players like Nimmo are not projected to lose their eye at the plate as they get older. Nimmo is more likely to be an above-average on-base player in his mid to late 30s than he is to be a good power hitter.
So, it might be worthwhile for the Mets to take advantage of Nimmo’s power now since it likely won’t be available a few years from now. The Mets can build next year’s team relying on Pete Alonso and Francisco Alvarez being the main power sources (35+ homer potential) with Nimmo and Francisco Lindor as solid secondary contributors (25+ homer potential).
Brandon Nimmo just reached 20 home runs for the first time in his career. pic.twitter.com/MaMuwgaNyP
— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) September 2, 2023
With seven more years left on his contract, focusing on power while he’s still young could be one way in which the Mets get the most offensive value out of Nimmo.
The Case for the Version of Nimmo That Gets On Base
Nimmo has proven to have elite on-base skills. He hasn’t proven to have great slugging ability. His slugging in 2023 is really good and slightly above average. This looks even better considering it’s coming from a center fielder. However, it doesn’t come close to the peaks he can reach in OBP.
In 2018, Nimmo played 140 games and ranked fourth in MLB with a .404 OBP. This season, his .455 SLG in 133 games ranks 59th in the league (sixth among center fielders). It might be more useful for the Mets to take advantage of the version of Nimmo with an elite eye at the plate rather than decent slugging.
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An ability to get on base around 40 percent of the time is more elite and rare than a slugging percentage in the mid-400s. It makes sense for the Mets to push Nimmo to focus on being the best leadoff hitter in the game and find power elsewhere.
Nimmo shouldn’t have to be a power source in the lineup. New York can hope that Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, and Ronny Mauricio further develop next year and become solid power producers. All of them have power in their game, and if the potential is realized, Nimmo can begin to focus more on getting on base at the elite rate he can. It’s logical to forecast a lineup starting with Nimmo getting on base, and then scoring on doubles or homers from Lindor, Alonso, Alvarez, Vientos, Baty, or Mauricio.
Can Nimmo Slug and Get On Base?
To a certain degree, yes. Nimmo has already set a career-high in homers and could get close to 30 with a hot September. While much has been made of his transformation, he still gets on base at a great clip and isn’t striking out as much as would be expected.
"I'll never stop trying to get more out of myself. I think there's even more consistency that I can get out of myself. I'm still learning, even at this stage of the game."
– Brandon Nimmo pic.twitter.com/1pt4pxYAJG
— SNY (@SNYtv) September 6, 2023
Nimmo currently ranks 28th in the league in OBP. Only 13 players above him have at least as many homers as him. Additionally, his 21.7 strikeout percentage is roughly league average (it’s in the 51st percentile). His walk percentage (11.4 percent) is in the 83rd percentile.
Nimmo has tapped into power while still getting on base at a great clip. He is showing that he can be (and maybe already is) one of the better, well-rounded hitters in the league.
The biggest question is how much Nimmo and/or the Mets value his ability to get on base at an elite clip. A .400 OBP is special and not many hitters in today’s game can reach it. More hitters can slug .450 or better than get on base at that rate. The Mets’ future is filled with question marks. While the squad will be happy to have either version of Brandon Nimmo, the version they get can have a legitimate impact on the lineup and roster.
Main photo credits:
Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports
