Shocking news broke for the New York Yankees: Their All-Star Ace and CY Young winner Gerrit Cole is going for an MRI on his pitching elbow. Need for another arm. His MRI heightens the Yankees’ need for another arm in the rotation. Even before the Cole news broke, the Yankees rotation looked questionable. Nestor Cortes has been unimpressive in all of his three Spring starts. In his previous start, his stat line was an unimpressive 3.1 innings, six earned runs, and an 8.10 ERA. His pitches look flat and lifeless, which should concern the club. His cutter, his best pitch, has hung up in the zone and hit around like last season.
It’s important not to look too deeply into Spring starts, as there are variables. Often, the focus is on mechanics and developing lesser-used pitches rather than results. However, arguably, if there was one guy who needed to impress from the jump, it was Cortes. He’s not the only question mark. It’s unavoidable, but the Yankees acquiring Juan Soto on a walk-year means they’re all in. If Cole is out for any time, it diminishes those chances and potentially wastes this glorious opportunity. Even if he isn’t, and everyone involved prays that he’s ok, they still look an arm short, realistically.
Cole’s MRI heightens Yankees’ need for another arm- best and worst-case scenarios.
In the best case, Cole is fine, and the MRI shows no structural damage. This would be a massive relief for all fans and the organization. If it’s a possible shoulder strain, this would still mean he needs to shut it down for at least a month. He’d likely need to start from scratch and build up his arm, which could be a 6-8 week recovery. Honestly, I’m not convinced about the depth of the Yankee rotation beyond that timeframe.
On the optimistic side, according to insider Brian Hoch, the Yankees feel ‘cautiously’ optimistic. His velocity is still a robust 96mph on the radar gun, which is expected for where he is in March. If this were a TJ situation, one would expect it to be more drastic. Still, no matter how you slice it, this is a concern. Cortes described it as ‘alarming,’ which accurately describes the feeling of the Yankee camp.
Still, it’s possible Cole knows his body intrinsically and wants to make sure there’s no structural damage before deciding how to approach the rest of the Spring. Cole is one of the last true pitching artists; his commitment to his craft is generational. With that in mind, no one knows better how he’s feeling than Cole himself. He’s a perfectionist; perhaps he’s merely being sure that, under the expectation, he’s okay. It’s a UCL tear in the worst-case scenario, and he’s done for the season. Let’s face it: That event essentially ends the Yankees’ quest for a Championship before it begins. A lot rests on the prognosis.
A look at the rotation outside of Cole
Cole is locked in as a bona fide ace in the rotation. Carlos Rodon is slated to be the number 2; Rodon flamed out in the first year of his massive six-year $160 million deal. He was finishing with a 3-8 record and a 6.85 era in an injury-plagued disastrous season. In the final start of last year, he failed to record a single out in an 8-run demolition by the Royals. Still, much improvement is expected from Rodon this season. His resume is impressive, and he has the grit on the mound to handle the pressure. He also has elite stuff.
Case in point: notching 237 strikeouts and a 2.88 era for the Giants, going 14-8 in 2022. Anything close to that, the Yankees would be doing star jumps. Still, his injury concerns are real; thus far, his Spring continues to underwhelm. After Cortes’s dangerous spot in the rotation is Clarke Schmidt, who also has an underwhelming Spring. He lasted just 2/3rds of an inning against the Braves before being pulled after giving up three runs. He came back later under Spring rules. Schmidt has a solid back end of the rotation stuff and should provide solid outings every 5-days. He shouldn’t be relied upon to pitch deep into games, though.
Brian Cashman’s decision to sign Marcus Stroman to a team-friendly deal appears to be a masterstroke. The former All-Star Stroman looks phenomenal in Spring. Outside those names, the Yankees have prospects such as Luis Gil, Clayton Beeter, and Will Warren, who are chomping for a chance. Plus, Chase Hampton is a little further away, but potentially, it has the most significant upside. Luke Weaver will likely fill the long-man and spot-starter role. Gil and Beeter have excellent stuff that immediately translates seamlessly into a bullpen role. I’d be surprised if Gil is an immediate Starter due to being injured all last season. Warren is viewed as being the readiest prospect with mid-rotation stuff.
There seem to be a lot of questions and some prospects, but outside of Cole, there are no certainties.
Cole’s MRI heightens the Yankees’ need for another arm.
No doubt the Yankees have exciting arms coming through; they have one of the finest farms in the majors. However, the luxury of seeing how they develop cannot be afforded to the Yanks after they pulled off the deal for the generational Juan Soto. This is the window to take advantage of Cole and Aaron Judge’s prime without guaranteeing his staying beyond this year. Not to mention Anthony Rizzo and Giancarlo Stanton. This is also Gleyber Torres and Alex Verdugo‘s contract year. With the offense set to dominate, it doesn’t make sense not to ensure the rotation is also elite.
Outside of Cole, it’s all question marks. With Cole’s elbow concerns, that’s now five questions. They certainly don’t have the arms in the rotation to go an entire season without Cole. Cortes and Rodon were injured for most of last year. Luke Weaver has a career 5.14 era and a 27-42 record. Although, in fairness, Pitching Coach Matt Blake loves him and feels he can develop his sinker to make him a valuable arm. Schmidt is yet to prove he’s someone they can rely upon to face a lineup the third time around the order. Unless they feel passionate that Will Warren is ready to step in, I don’t see the depth in the rotation. Even working under the cautious assumption, Cole is healthy for most of the season. Cole’s MRI heightens the Yankee’s need for another arm.
Do they have another move up their sleeve?
Because the Yankees are past the highest-tier luxury tax threshold, every dollar they spend is taxed at 110%. This is likely dissuading them from re-engaging with CY Young Winner and free agent Blake Snell. A short-term deal doesn’t suit the Yankees. For instance, if they signed him to a $30 million contract, they’d pay in the region of $63 million. On top of that, the loss of international money and draft picks. Do they want to invest in a non-durable 31-year-old pitcher long-term? Doubtful. It made sense before Stroman signing; now, I feel alternative options are more likely.
A Jordan Montgomery reunion makes more sense. He won’t be as costly as Snell, and he’s coming off a Championship in Texas. It would only cost money, which is attractive as the Yanks shipped a lot of pitching to the Padres to land Soto. They’re already over the highest tier, so at this stage, why not bite the bullet?
Dylan Cease of the Chicago White Sox is a no-brainer move. In a slow market, most teams will not be willing to move their best players this close to the season starting. However, the White Sox have little to no shot at contention in their division.
Therefore, they’d probably be amenable to moving him with a firm offer. Brian Cashman spent most of this winter trying to make a deal work for Cease but was unable to find a match. This Cole news heightens the need for the Yankees to re-engage more forcefully in discussions. According to sources, the Yankees are more likely to engage with Cease than the free agents.
What would a Cease package look like?
Cease is unquestionably a bargain at just $8 million this year and is controllable for next year. He’s a walking 200+ strikeout per year pitcher. As he’s young, controllable, and has a high upside, forget the idea of getting him on the cheap. He’ll command more than the Corbin Burnes trade on a walk year. The Yankees don’t have the luxury to sit and wait to see how the market unfolds. This is their all-in year. They can’t delude themselves into thinking they have the depth in the rotation to win a championship. Regardless of the results, Cole’s MRI heightens the Yankees’ need for another arm.
The stumbling block in negotiations is the White Sox’s refusal to move off the Yankee’s #1 prospect, Spencer Jones. This should continue to be a non-starter. Jones has been incredible in Spring. His at-bats have been impressive, including a 500-foot shot in his first Spring game and his speed and range in CF. In that case, I’d propose making their #1 Pitching prospect, Chase Hampton, available for trade. A trade centered around Hampton and Everson Pereira, their 4th and 6th overall prospects, along with some ‘B’ prospects, should get them close to a deal. You have to give to get, so they’ll need to move one of their top 5 prospects to have a shot at matching with the White Sox. New York ais flush with outfield prospects. Thus,Pereira is expendable.
Especially as Jones and Jasson Dominguez are locked in and almost ready; furthermore, superstars Aaron Judge and (they hope) Soto will be everyday Outfielders in the long term. Overall, the Yankees have the farm to match with the White Sox without moving Spencer Jones or Dominguez. It’s intrinsic for Cashman to be aggressive. Regardless of the outcome of the MRI, they need to be proactive rather than reactive. Land Dylan Cease to give themselves every chance of being the last team standing in October.
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