After years in the basement, the Washington Nationals rebuild has shown signs of life this season. MacKenzie Gore and CJ Abrams are breaking out, and James Wood made his long-awaited debut on July 1st. The starting rotation has also been a pleasant surprise, with Mitchell Parker and Jake Irvin emerging as legitimate rotation arms for the future.
However, there is still a long way to go before the Nationals are ready to compete for the postseason, as the last couple of weeks have shown us. The offense has been largely non-existent outside of Abrams and Jesse Winker, and the bullpen has been regressing lately.
With the Wild Card now looking out of reach, it is now time to look at the MLB Draft, where the Nationals hold the 10th overall pick. Right now there is no clear favorite for who will be picked, and the Nats can go in a number of different directions. We will walk through the options here and talk about the pros and cons of each.
Nationals Face Important Decision with 10th Overall Draft Pick
Nick Kurtz, 1B, Wake Forest
Congrats to our All-ACC Deacs!
First-Team
Chase Burns (89 IP, 2.63 ERA, 169 K)
Nick Kurtz (1.322 OPS, 21 HR, 52 RBI)Third-Team
Seaver King (.994 OPS, 16 HR, 63 RBI)
Marek Houston (.929 OPS, 6 HR, 54 R) pic.twitter.com/IQbpUXKAzt— Wake Forest Baseball Analytics (@Wake_Analytics) May 20, 2024
They say not to draft for need, but with the way Joey Gallo and Joey Meneses have performed this season, it is hard not to be intrigued by the possibility of a slugging first baseman. Nick Kurtz would also provide good value at #10, with his long track record of production and sky-high exit velocities. The recent track record of college first basemen drafted in the first round is cause for concern, but if GM Mike Rizzo and company believe the bat is good enough to play at first base in the big leagues, it would be worth the risk. Kurtz can provide 35 home run power with a solid batting average and plenty of walks if he hits his peak.
Konnor Griffin, SS/OF, Jackson Prep, MS
Konnor Griffin, the top-ranked prep prospect in this year’s Draft class, has been named the Gatorade High School Player of the Year.
The 18-year-old from Mississippi has 60-grade power and was 87-for-88 in SB this spring.
More on the 6-foot-4 SS/OF: https://t.co/vkftB7D8xe pic.twitter.com/RyVK3WMau7
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) June 6, 2024
Throughout Mike Rizzo’s tenure as Nationals GM, he has loved to take big swings on upside. The results have been mixed, but it is a philosophy the Nats have used. After a shakeup in the scouting department, there are new faces in the draft room, so the approach might change. However, if the Nationals want to swing for the fences with their first-round draft pick, Konnor Griffin is the guy.
MLB Pipeline says that Griffin has the highest ceiling in the draft and if he is available at 10, it would be hard to pass on him. However, Griffin comes with risk and there are questions about his hit tool. With the way Elijah Green is looking, would the Nats take another swing on a high upside high schooler with hit tool risk? The swing and miss is not as bad as Green’s, but scouts have questions about his swing. If Griffin hits, he will be a superstar.
Bryce Rainer, SS, Harvard-Westlake HS, California
While Bryce Rainer may not have the athleticism of Griffin, he still has immense upside and arguably has a higher floor. Rainer is a big shortstop with a rocket arm and big-time power. Scouts also like his swing more than Griffin’s and say he has Corey Seager-type upside. There is some swing-and-miss in his game, though he has improved in that department. In a lot of ways, he is similar to Griffin, with both being athletic shortstops with plenty of power and both being highly regarded pitching prospects, with both guys touching the mid-90s on the mound. It is unlikely that both are on the board by the 10th pick, but it would be interesting to see which one the Nats prefer.
Trey Yesavage, RHP, East Carolina
If the Nats decide to go with a pitcher, Trey Yesavage is likely their primary option. The top two pitchers in the class, Chase Burns and Hagen Smith, are highly unlikely to be on the board at 10, and Yesavage is the next-best guy. Yesavage has a prototypical innings-eating frame at 6’4”, 225 pounds, and has the polish to fly through the minor leagues. He had a 2.03 ERA in 93 1/3 innings while striking out 145 batters. He has a mid-90s fastball he uses to set up his two-plus off-speed pitches, his slider, and his splitter. The splitter is particularly lethal and he uses it as his put-away pitch. Yesavage might not have the upside of an ace, but he has a high floor as a steady, durable middle-of-the-rotation arm.
Based on their current situation and outlook, it would be ideal for the Nationals to use this draft pick on a bat, with Kurtz being the top option. He is the best combination of floor, ceiling, and need.
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