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How To Bet The 2024 Home Run Derby

Tonight’s Home Run Derby officially kicks off the All-Star Game festivities.  Players and fans alike get the opportunity to “wow” at the barrage of long balls being smashed. Names that many fans associate with big flies and ridiculous exit velocity i.e. Oneil Cruz, Elly De La Cruz, Aaron Judge, and others opted out of the Derby. With those players out let’s look at who IS in the Derby and how to bet the 2024 Home Run Derby.

How To Bet The 2024 Home Run Derby

 

Contestants, First Half Home Runs, and Odds

Pete Alonso 1B, Mets – 19 first-half home runs +300

Gunnar Henderson SS, Orioles – 28 first-half home runs +380

Marcell Ozuna DH, Braves – 26 first-half home runs +400

Bobby Witt Jr. SS, Royals – 16 first-half home runs +470

Adolis García OF, Rangers – 17 first-half home runs +550

Teoscar Hernandez OF, Dodgers – 19 first-half home runs +1100

Jose Ramírez 3B, Guardians – 23 first-half home runs +1500

Alec Bohm 3B, Phillies – 11 first-half home runs +2000

The Favorite To Win

Pete Alonso is the obvious favorite here.  The Polar Bear is the all-time derby leader in home runs, with 195 derby home runs to his credit.  Alonso has won the derby twice in his career and knows how to pace himself and how to get into a rhythm.  While Alonso has some stiff competition his experience will be invaluable. Alonso has the size, 6’3 245lbs, to last through each round.  Despite the rule changes this year endurance will always play a part.

Of the last ten winners, only two were under 6’0 (Prince Fielder and Yoenis Cespedes are both 5’11). This is one trend that leads me to believe that the 5’9 Jose Ramirez might not be built for the Derby.  Alec Bohm, another long shot to win, has similar power to Alex Bregman.  Despite Bohm being taller, Bregman wasn’t able to move out of the first round in two chances.  Bohm is fun to watch but I don’t think he makes it out of the first round either.

 

First Half Home Runs DO NOT MATTER

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. only had 13 first-half home runs last season when he won the Derby.  Juan Soto had 20 home runs in the first half when he won in 2022. Jump to 2017 and Aaron Judge had 30 home runs.  What I’m getting at is that home runs in real major league games do not translate into derby home runs. Ozuna having 26 home runs does not give him an edge over Pete Alonso who only has 19.

Longshots Worth Betting On

The only two competitors that make a run at the Polar Bear will be Gunnar Henderson and Adolis Garcia.  Henderson has the build and the luxury of only being 23 years old. If Alonso slips up early that will open the door for Gunnar to take home the third Derby win for the Baltimore Orioles.  Adolis Garcia also has the build, but he also has a home-field advantage. We have seen home-field advantage work out for players like Bryce Harper and Todd Frazier in the past.  

If Alonso gets knocked out early, I would check to see what odds I can get on both Garcia and Henderson.  While any of these guys can get hot and maybe win, I wouldn’t put money on it.

Main Photo Credits: Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

Winston Meadows

Winston Meadows

Winston is happily married with three kids and way too many dogs. He has been an NC State fan his entire life and has never known true happiness. He retired at 39 and now he spends all of his time talking about baseball.

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