To the untrained eye, Washington Nationals pitcher Robert Garcia is a middling bullpen arm who could lose his job any day. His performances have been inconsistent, and his ERA sits at 4.29. At first glance, he looks like a replacement-level relief pitcher. However, there is more to Robert Garcia than what meets the eye. If you dig deep enough, you will find the makings of a future high-leverage reliever.
Robert Garcia Could Be Nationals Secret Weapon
Digging Into Robert Garcia’s profile:
Despite the mediocre performance this season, advanced metrics love Garcia. Despite a 4.29 ERA, Garcia has a 2.50 FIP, a 2.49 xFIP, and a 2.48 xERA. The underlying numbers all agree that he is a far better pitcher than he has been. The question is, why? One reason is that Garcia is a strikeout machine, with 49 punchouts in 35 2/3 innings. The advanced numbers love high strikeout pitchers, and for good reason. They rely less on batted ball luck and tend to have elite stuff. Garcia’s 12.36 K/9 is 15th in baseball among pitchers with at least 30 innings. He is sandwiched between Kirby Yates and Jeff Hoffman, both All-Star relievers.
However, there is more to his profile than just strikeouts. When he does get hit, he does a good job of limiting hard contact. He sits in the 97th percentile for hard hit% and the 92nd percentile for barrel%. He is also in the 77th percentile for average exit velocity and the 71st percentile for ground ball%. The ingredients are all there for Garcia, he will just have to pitch to those underlying numbers down the stretch.
Garcia’s pitch arsenal:
Robert Garcia throws three pitches that all generate a lot of swings and misses. Garcia’s fastball is his bread and butter, which he throws 55.3% of the time. It averages 94.3 MPH, which is not spectacular for a reliever in 2024, but it plays above its velocity. The pitch has recorded 28 strikeouts, with Garcia often using it as a put-away pitch. Stuff models also like the pitch, with Stuff + giving the pitch a 115 rating, or 15% better than average. This is thanks to the pitch shape and his low release.
Against right-handed hitters, he throws his devastating changeup 47.3% of the time. The pitch has a .195 batting average against it, with hitters whiffing 33.7% of the time. He has not thrown a single changeup against lefties, but it has been a huge weapon against right handers. He is much more fastball-heavy against lefties, throwing it 68.9% of the time against them. The heater has been much more effective against lefties this season.
He also mixes in a slider 16.5% of the time, using it as his secondary pitch against lefties. It is his worst-performing pitch, but it is vital for his arsenal. It keeps lefties off his fastball and gets a good number of whiffs, with batters swinging and missing 29.4% of the time. Garcia’s three-pitch mix has made him a whiff machine and a reliever worth watching.
Future closer?
Since a blowup out on July 2nd against the Mets, Garcia has been spotless. He has given up no runs and only two hits in the eight appearances since then. In that time, his ERA has dropped from 5.60 to 4.29. He has also begun to see more high-leverage opportunities, a trend that will likely continue.
As the Nationals sell off at the deadline, high-leverage bullpen spots will be up for grabs. The team has already traded setup man Hunter Harvey, and it is very likely that other relievers will go at the deadline. Kyle Finnegan, Dylan Floro, and Derek Law could all be on the move in the coming days.
With the exodus of bullpen arms, that leaves an opportunity for Garcia to seize the closer role. It would be a massive opportunity for the 28-year-old, but he has the stuff to seize the moment. The Washington Nationals bullpen post-deadline will be a story to watch, with a number of guys looking to establish themselves. However, of all the options, Robert Garcia has the best chance to run with this opportunity.
Main Photo Credits: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
