Left-hander DJ Herz is the modern-day funky lefty. He has the wonky delivery and deception but averages 93.5 MPH on his fastball. Herz has always had the combination of deception and stuff but has had issues throwing strikes. However, he has controlled his walk rate with the Washington Nationals. With his improved strike-throwing, Herz has shown flashes of dominance in his first taste of MLB action. This has established Herz as a key part of the Nationals’ future rotation.
DJ Herz Pitching His Way Into the Nationals’ Future
The Trade
Herz is a recent acquisition by the Nationals. The Chicago Cubs traded Herz and Kevin Made to the Nationals for Jeimer Candelario last July in a deadline deal. While Made’s development has stalled out, Herz has flourished with the Nationals. He was excellent following the trade, posting a 2.55 ERA and 13.5 K/9 in 35 1/3 innings at Double-A Harrisburg. He struggled with walks, but given his track record, that was not surprising. Herz established himself as a name to watch headed into 2024.
Showing Flashes of Potential
After ten starts at Triple-A Rochester, where he showed his usual mix of walks and nasty stuff, Herz got called to the majors. He had five shaky performances in his first seven starts but mixed in two utterly dominant starts. He struck out ten or more batters in those two starts with zero walks. His start against the Marlins was particularly impressive. Herz joined Stephen Strasburg as the only pitcher in MLB history to strike out at least 13 and walk nobody in one of their first three career starts. Three starts after that masterpiece, he went 5 2/3 innings of one-run ball against the Mets, striking out ten and walking nobody.
However, after a rough outing against the Cardinals, Herz was sent down to Triple-A. Since rejoining the rotation, Herz has shown more consistency. He has gone at least five innings in all but one of his starts since coming back, something he had struggled with. Herz has a 2.62 ERA in 34 1/3 innings in those seven starts since his promotion. While many of the Nationals’ young starters have slowed, Herz is improving.
How Herz Can Succeed
Herz’s success revolves around his fastball. Despite having average velocity, his fastball gets massive whiff numbers. Of pitchers who have faced at least 100 batters, Herz ranks sixth in fastball whiff%. Most of the guys ahead of him are fireballing relief pitchers. He does this due to a funky release and solid fastball characteristics. The fastball gives him a foundation upon which to build.
He combines the fastball with a nasty changeup, which scouts called his best pitch in the minor leagues. It has performed well in the Majors, with batters hitting .181 against the pitch. His third pitch is a slider, the weakest of the trio, but has been serviceable against left-handed hitters. Most importantly, Herz has thrown more strikes in the big leagues. He is walking 3.29 batters per 9 innings, which is a career-best at any level. His 8.4 BB% is slightly below average, but he will succeed if he keeps the walks manageable.
Herz’s Future
The Nationals have had many young pitchers flash this season, but Herz might be the most interesting. His 11.38 K/9 far exceeds any other Nationals starter. His underlying numbers are also the strongest. Herz will need to go deeper into games to become a true frontline starter, but he has the stuff. He should get an opportunity to be in the rotation to start 2025. If he does not work out as a starter, his strikeout stuff should translate well to the back end of a bullpen.
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